The Rational and Computational Scope of Probabilistic Rule-Based Expert Systems

This paper studies the underlying rationality of those languages on the syntax and calculus grounds. Some implications of the theorem to the relationship between the CF and the Bayesian languages and the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence are presented. In order for a computer program to be a plausible --odel of a (mora or less) rational process of human expertise, the program should be capable of representing beliefs in a language that is (more or less) calibrated with a well-specified normative criterion, e.g. the axioms of Subjective Probability [15], the Theory of Confir.nation Tversky, the building blocks· of a probabilistic language are syntax, calculus, and semantics [18]. The-- is a set of numbers, co--only referred to as Degrees of Belief (e.g. standard probabilities or Certainty Factors), which are used to parameterize uncertain facts, inexact rules, and competing hypotheses.