Learning non-Gaussian Time Series using the Box-Cox Gaussian Process

A Gaussian process (GP) [1] is a prior distribution over functions with a support that includes a wide class of phenomena via the design of its mean and covariance functions, the parameters of which provide meaningful interpretation of the process at hand. Beyond regression [2], GPs have been extensively used in the last two decades for classification [3], density estimation [4], filter design [5], model identification [6] and optimisation [7]. In general terms, all these generative models have two stages: The latent process is modelled as a GP and the observation is modelled (conditional to the latent process) as a non-Gaussian variable. This class of models is referred to as GP with non-Gaussian likelihood, or as Generalised GPs. These usually consider likelihood functions from the exponential family such as the Laplace, Poisson, beta and gamma distributions [8]. A well-known example is the GP classification model, where the classes are represented by the output of an activation neuron into which a latent GP is fed. A slightly different approach to non-Gaussian models, which is not constrained to the exponential family, is the warped GP (WGP, [9]). The WGP models non-Gaussian data by assuming that there is a transformation φ such that the observations can be passed through φ to yield a GP, therefore, the likelihood function of this model is not designed directly but, rather, induced by the transformation (a.k.a.