IGNIS: A Robust Neural Network Framework for Constrained Parameter Estimation in Archimedean Copulas

Aich, Agnideep

arXiv.org Machine Learning 

Classical estimators, the cornerstones of statistical inference, face insurmountable challenges when applied to important emerging classes of Archimedean copulas. These models exhibit pathological properties, including numerically unstable densities, non-monotonic parameter-to-dependence mappings, and vanishingly small likelihood gradients, rendering methods like Maximum Likelihood (MLE) and Method of Moments (MoM) inconsistent or computationally infeasible. We introduce IGNIS, a unified neural estimation framework that sidesteps these barriers by learning a direct, robust mapping from data-driven dependency measures to the underlying copula parameter theta. IGNIS utilizes a multi-input architecture and a theory-guided output layer (softplus(z) + 1) to automatically enforce the domain constraint theta_hat >= 1. Trained and validated on four families (Gumbel, Joe, and the numerically challenging A1/A2), IGNIS delivers accurate and stable estimates for real-world financial and health datasets, demonstrating its necessity for reliable inference in modern, complex dependence models where traditional methods fail.

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