Learning Dynamic and Personalized Comorbidity Networks from Event Data using Deep Diffusion Processes

Comorbid diseases cooccur and progress via complex temporal patterns that vary among individuals. In electronic health records we can observe the different diseases a patient has, but can only infer the temporal relationship between each co-morbid condition. Learning such temporal patterns from event data is crucial for understanding disease pathology and predicting prognoses. To this end, we develop deep diffusion processes (DDP) to model "dynamic comorbid-ity networks", i.e., the temporal relationships between comorbid disease onsets expressed through a dynamic graph. A DDP comprises events modelled as a multidimensional point process, with an intensity function parame-terized by the edges of a dynamic weighted graph. The graph structure is modulated by a neural network that maps patient history to edge weights, enabling rich temporal representations for disease trajectories. The DDP parameters decouple into clinically meaningful components, which enables serving the dual purpose of accurate risk prediction and intelligible representation of disease pathology. We illustrate these features in experiments using cancer registry data.