On Predictive planning and counterfactual learning in active inference

Defining and thereby separating the intelligent "agent" from its embodied "environment", which then provides feedback to the agent, is crucial to model intelligent behaviour. Popular approaches, like reinforcement learning (RL), heavily employ such models containing agent-environment loops, which boils down the problem to agent(s) trying to maximise reward in the given uncertain environment Sutton and Barto [2018]. Active inference has emerged in neuroscience as a biologically plausible framework Friston [2010], which adopts a different approach to modelling intelligent behaviour compared to other contemporary methods like RL. In the active inference framework, an agent accumulates and maximises the model evidence during its lifetime to perceive, learn, and make decisions Da Costa et al. [2020], Sajid et al. [2021], Millidge et al. [2020]. However, maximising the model evidence becomes challenging when the agent encounters a highly'entropic' observation (i.e. an unexpected observation) concerning the agent's generative (world) model Da Costa et al. [2020], Sajid et al. [2021], Millidge et al. [2020]. This seemingly intractable objective of maximising model evidence (or minimising the entropy of encountered observations) is achievable by minimising an upper bound on the entropy of observations, called variational free energy Da Costa et al. [2020], Sajid et al. [2021]. Given this general foundation, active inference Friston et al. [2017] offers excellent flexibility in defining the generative model structure for a given problem and has attracted much attention in various domainsKuchling et al. [2020], Deane et al. [2020]. In this work, we develop an efficient decision-making scheme based on active inference by combining'planning' and'learning from experience'.