A Probabilistic Transmission Expansion Planning Methodology based on Roulette Wheel Selection and Social Welfare

Abstract: A new probabilistic methodology for transmission expansion planning (TEP) th at does not require a priori specification of new/additional transmission capacities and uses the concept of social welfare has been proposed. Two new concepts have been introduced in this paper: (i) roulette wheel methodology has been used to calculate t he capacity of new transmission lines and (ii) load flow analysis has been used to calculate expected demand not served (EDNS). The overall methodology has been implemented on a modified IEEE 5 - bus test system. Simulations show an important result: addit ion of only new transmission lines is not sufficient to minimize EDNS. Nowadays, the need for appropriate planned power syste ms to reduce generation cost, minimize the consumer cost and improve the quality of the power supply has become imperative [1] - [3]. As a result, transmission expansion planning (TEP) is gaining more significance.