Modelling serendipity in a computational context

Building on a survey of previous theories of serendipity and creativity, we advance a sequential model of serendipitous occurrences. We distinguish between serendipity as a service and serendipity in the system itself, clarify the role of invention and discovery, and provide a measure for the serendipity potential of a system. While a system can arguably not be guaranteed to be serendipitous, it can have a high potential for serendipity. Practitioners can use these theoretical tools to evaluate a computational system's potential for unexpected behaviour that may have a beneficial outcome. In addition to a qualitative features of serendipity potential, the model also includes quantitative ratings that can guide development work. We show how the model is used in three case studies of existing and hypothetical systems, in the context of evolutionary computing, automated programming, and (next-generation) recommender systems. From this analysis, we extract recommendations for practitioners working with computational serendipity, and outline future directions for research.