This short note describes a simple technique for analyzing probabilistic algorithms that rely on a light-tailed (but not necessarily bounded) source of randomization. We show that the analysis of such an algorithm can be reduced, in a black-box manner and with only a small loss in logarithmic factors, to an analysis of a simpler variant of the same algorithm that uses bounded random variables and often easier to analyze. This approach simultaneously applies to any light-tailed randomization, including exponential, sub-Gaussian, and more general fast-decaying distributions, without needing to appeal to specialized concentration inequalities. Analyses of a generalized Azuma inequality and stochastic optimization with general light-tailed noise are provided to illustrate the technique. We are interested in analyzing randomized algorithms that internally use light-tailed (yet not necessarily bounded) randomization.

We consider the problem of late multi-modal fusion for discriminative learning. Motivated by noisy, multi-source domains that require understanding the reliability of each data source, we explore the notion of credibility in the context of multi-modal fusion. We propose a combination function that uses probabilistic circuits (PCs) to combine predictive distributions over individual modalities. We also define a probabilistic measure to evaluate the credibility of each modality via inference queries over the PC. Our experimental evaluation demonstrates that our fusion method can reliably infer credibility while maintaining competitive performance with the state-of-the-art.

Machine learning holds tremendous promise for transforming the fundamental practice of scientific discovery by virtue of its data-driven nature. With the ever-increasing stream of research data collection, it would be appealing to autonomously explore patterns and insights from observational data for discovering novel classes of phenotypes and concepts. However, in the biomedical domain, there are several challenges inherently presented in the cumulated data which hamper the progress of novel class discovery. The non-i.i.d. data distribution accompanied by the severe imbalance among different groups of classes essentially leads to ambiguous and biased semantic representations. In this work, we present a geometry-constrained probabilistic modeling treatment to resolve the identified issues. First, we propose to parameterize the approximated posterior of instance embedding as a marginal von MisesFisher distribution to account for the interference of distributional latent bias. Then, we incorporate a suite of critical geometric properties to impose proper constraints on the layout of constructed embedding space, which in turn minimizes the uncontrollable risk for unknown class learning and structuring. Furthermore, a spectral graph-theoretic method is devised to estimate the number of potential novel classes. It inherits two intriguing merits compared to existent approaches, namely high computational efficiency and flexibility for taxonomy-adaptive estimation. Extensive experiments across various biomedical scenarios substantiate the effectiveness and general applicability of our method.

We address the task of long-horizon navigation in partially mapped environments for which active gathering of information about faraway unseen space is essential for good behavior. We present a novel planning strategy that, at training time, affords tractable computation of the value of information associated with revealing potentially informative regions of unseen space, data used to train a graph neural network to predict the goodness of temporally-extended exploratory actions. Our learning-augmented model-based planning approach predicts the expected value of information of revealing unseen space and is capable of using these predictions to actively seek information and so improve long-horizon navigation. Across two simulated office-like environments, our planner outperforms competitive learned and non-learned baseline navigation strategies, achieving improvements of up to 63.76% and 36.68%, demonstrating its capacity to actively seek performance-critical information.

Reliable confidence estimation is a challenging yet fundamental requirement in many risk-sensitive applications. However, modern deep neural networks are often overconfident for their incorrect predictions, i.e., misclassified samples from known classes, and out-of-distribution (OOD) samples from unknown classes. In recent years, many confidence calibration and OOD detection methods have been developed. In this paper, we find a general, widely existing but actually-neglected phenomenon that most confidence estimation methods are harmful for detecting misclassification errors. We investigate this problem and reveal that popular calibration and OOD detection methods often lead to worse confidence separation between correctly classified and misclassified examples, making it difficult to decide whether to trust a prediction or not. Finally, we propose to enlarge the confidence gap by finding flat minima, which yields state-of-the-art failure prediction performance under various settings including balanced, long-tailed, and covariate-shift classification scenarios. Our study not only provides a strong baseline for reliable confidence estimation but also acts as a bridge between understanding calibration, OOD detection, and failure prediction. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/Impression2805/FMFP}.

One of the main challenges in the area of Neuro-Symbolic AI is to perform logical reasoning in the presence of both neural and symbolic data. This requires combining heterogeneous data sources such as knowledge graphs, neural model predictions, structured databases, crowd-sourced data, and many more. To allow for such reasoning, we generalise the standard rule-based language Datalog with existential rules (commonly referred to as tuple-generating dependencies) to the fuzzy setting, by allowing for arbitrary t-norms in the place of classical conjunctions in rule bodies. The resulting formalism allows us to perform reasoning about data associated with degrees of uncertainty while preserving computational complexity results and the applicability of reasoning techniques established for the standard Datalog setting. In particular, we provide fuzzy extensions of Datalog chases which produce fuzzy universal models and we exploit them to show that in important fragments of the language, reasoning has the same complexity as in the classical setting.

We consider the task of estimating variational autoencoders (VAEs) when the training data is incomplete. We show that missing data increases the complexity of the model's posterior distribution over the latent variables compared to the fully-observed case. The increased complexity may adversely affect the fit of the model due to a mismatch between the variational and model posterior distributions. We introduce two strategies based on (i) finite variational-mixture and (ii) imputation-based variational-mixture distributions to address the increased posterior complexity. Through a comprehensive evaluation of the proposed approaches, we show that variational mixtures are effective at improving the accuracy of VAE estimation from incomplete data.

The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is a popular statistical approach for handling correlated data, and is used extensively in applications areas where big data is common, including biomedical data settings. The focus of this paper is scalable statistical inference for the GLMM, where we define statistical inference as: (i) estimation of population parameters, and (ii) evaluation of scientific hypotheses in the presence of uncertainty. Artificial intelligence (AI) learning algorithms excel at scalable statistical estimation, but rarely include uncertainty quantification. In contrast, Bayesian inference provides full statistical inference, since uncertainty quantification results automatically from the posterior distribution. Unfortunately, Bayesian inference algorithms, including Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), become computationally intractable in big data settings. In this paper, we introduce a statistical inference algorithm at the intersection of AI and Bayesian inference, that leverages the scalability of modern AI algorithms with guaranteed uncertainty quantification that accompanies Bayesian inference. Our algorithm is an extension of stochastic gradient MCMC with novel contributions that address the treatment of correlated data (i.e., intractable marginal likelihood) and proper posterior variance estimation. Through theoretical and empirical results we establish our algorithm's statistical inference properties, and apply the method in a large electronic health records database.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have recently shown great potential for denoising tasks. Despite their practical utility, there is a notable gap in their theoretical understanding. This paper contributes novel theoretical insights by rigorously proving the asymptotic convergence of a specific DPM denoising strategy to the mean square error (MSE)-optimal conditional mean estimator (CME) over a large number of diffusion steps. The studied DPM-based denoiser shares the training procedure of DPMs but distinguishes itself by forwarding only the conditional mean during the reverse inference process after training. We highlight the unique perspective that DPMs are composed of an asymptotically optimal denoiser while simultaneously inheriting a powerful generator by switching re-sampling in the reverse process on and off. The theoretical findings are validated by numerical results.

This work presents novel extensions for combining two frameworks for quantifying both aleatoric (i.e., irreducible) and epistemic (i.e., reducible) sources of uncertainties in the modeling of engineered systems. The data-consistent (DC) framework poses an inverse problem and solution for quantifying aleatoric uncertainties in terms of pullback and push-forward measures for a given Quantity of Interest (QoI) map. Unfortunately, a pre-specified QoI map is not always available a priori to the collection of data associated with system outputs. The data themselves are often polluted with measurement errors (i.e., epistemic uncertainties), which complicates the process of specifying a useful QoI. The Learning Uncertain Quantities (LUQ) framework defines a formal three-step machine-learning enabled process for transforming noisy datasets into samples of a learned QoI map to enable DC-based inversion. We develop a robust filtering step in LUQ that can learn the most useful quantitative information present in spatio-temporal datasets. The learned QoI map transforms simulated and observed datasets into distributions to perform DC-based inversion. We also develop a DC-based inversion scheme that iterates over time as new spatial datasets are obtained and utilizes quantitative diagnostics to identify both the quality and impact of inversion at each iteration. Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space theory is leveraged to mathematically analyze the learned QoI map and develop a quantitative sufficiency test for evaluating the filtered data. An illustrative example is utilized throughout while the final two examples involve the manufacturing of shells of revolution to demonstrate various aspects of the presented frameworks.