Causal discovery is a fundamental problem with applications spanning various areas in science and engineering. It is well understood that solely using observational data, one can only orient the causal graph up to its Markov equivalence class, necessitating interventional data to learn the complete causal graph. Most works in the literature design causal discovery policies with perfect interventions, i.e., they have access to infinite interventional samples. This study considers a Bayesian approach for learning causal graphs with limited interventional samples, mirroring real-world scenarios where such samples are usually costly to obtain. By leveraging the recent result of Wien\"obst et al. (2023) on uniform DAG sampling in polynomial time, we can efficiently enumerate all the cut configurations and their corresponding interventional distributions of a target set, and further track their posteriors. Given any number of interventional samples, our proposed algorithm randomly intervenes on a set of target vertices that cut all the edges in the graph and returns a causal graph according to the posterior of each target set. When the number of interventional samples is large enough, we show theoretically that our proposed algorithm will return the true causal graph with high probability. We compare our algorithm against various baseline methods on simulated datasets, demonstrating its superior accuracy measured by the structural Hamming distance between the learned DAG and the ground truth. Additionally, we present a case study showing how this algorithm could be modified to answer more general causal questions without learning the whole graph. As an example, we illustrate that our method can be used to estimate the causal effect of a variable that cannot be intervened.

Over the past few years, several approaches utilizing score-based diffusion have been proposed to sample from probability distributions, that is without having access to exact samples and relying solely on evaluations of unnormalized densities. In practice, the performance of these methods heavily depends on key hyperparameters that require ground truth samples to be accurately tuned. Our work aims to highlight and address this fundamental issue, focusing in particular on multimodal distributions, which pose significant challenges for existing sampling methods. Building on existing approaches, we introduce Learned Reference-based Diffusion Sampler (LRDS), a methodology specifically designed to leverage prior knowledge on the location of the target modes in order to bypass the obstacle of hyperparameter tuning. LRDS proceeds in two steps by (i) learning a reference diffusion model on samples located in high-density space regions and tailored for multimodality, and (ii) using this reference model to foster the training of a diffusion-based sampler. We experimentally demonstrate that LRDS best exploits prior knowledge on the target distribution compared to competing algorithms on a variety of challenging distributions. We consider the problem of sampling from a probability density known up to a normalizing constant. In particular, we are interested in sampling from multimodal distributions, i.e., distributions whose density admits multiple local maxima, called modes. Finding the modes of such distributions is a notoriously hard problem, yet, maybe surprisingly, even if the location of the modes is known, sampling π remains a very challenging problem (Noé et al., 2019; Pompe et al., 2020; Grenioux et al., 2023). In this work, we aim to address this specific issue and will assume that we have access to the location of the modes as prior information on π. However, we do not assume to have access a priori to ground truth samples from π. Annealed MCMC. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers are among the most popular approaches for sampling. In particular, gradient-based methods based on discretizations of Langevin or Hamiltonian dynamics (Roberts & Tweedie, 1996; Neal, 2012; Hoffman & Gelman, 2014) are guaranteed to be efficient for high-dimensional target distributions that are log-concave or satisfy or functional inequalities (Dalalyan, 2017; Durmus & Moulines, 2017).

Agent-Based Model (ABM) validation is crucial as it helps ensuring the reliability of simulations, and causal discovery has become a powerful tool in this context. However, current causal discovery methods often face accuracy and robustness challenges when applied to complex and noisy time series data, which is typical in ABM scenarios. This study addresses these issues by proposing a Robust Cross-Validation (RCV) approach to enhance causal structure learning for ABM validation. We develop RCV-VarLiNGAM and RCV-PCMCI, novel extensions of two prominent causal discovery algorithms. These aim to reduce the impact of noise better and give more reliable causal relation results, even with high-dimensional, time-dependent data. The proposed approach is then integrated into an enhanced ABM validation framework, which is designed to handle diverse data and model structures. The approach is evaluated using synthetic datasets and a complex simulated fMRI dataset. The results demonstrate greater reliability in causal structure identification. The study examines how various characteristics of datasets affect the performance of established causal discovery methods. These characteristics include linearity, noise distribution, stationarity, and causal structure density. This analysis is then extended to the RCV method to see how it compares in these different situations. This examination helps confirm whether the results are consistent with existing literature and also reveals the strengths and weaknesses of the novel approaches. By tackling key methodological challenges, the study aims to enhance ABM validation with a more resilient valuation framework presented. These improvements increase the reliability of model-driven decision making processes in complex systems analysis.

Temporally evolving systems are typically modeled by dynamic equations. A key challenge in accurate modeling is understanding the causal relationships between subsystems, as well as identifying the presence and influence of unobserved hidden drivers on the observed dynamics. This paper presents a unified method capable of identifying fundamental causal relationships between pairs of systems, whether deterministic or stochastic. Notably, the method also uncovers hidden common causes beyond the observed variables. By analyzing the degrees of freedom in the system, our approach provides a more comprehensive understanding of both causal influence and hidden confounders. This unified framework is validated through theoretical models and simulations, demonstrating its robustness and potential for broader application.

We are interested in studying how heterogeneous agents can learn to communicate and cooperate with each other without being explicitly pre-programmed to do so. Motivated by this goal, we present and analyze a distributed solution to a two-player signaler-responder game which is defined as follows. The signaler agent has a random, exogenous need and can choose from four different strategies: never signal, always signal, signal when need, and signal when no need. The responder agent can choose to either ignore or respond to the signal. We define a reward to both agents when they cooperate to satisfy the signaler's need, and costs associated with communication, response and unmet needs. We identify pure Nash equilibria of the game and the conditions under which they occur. As a solution for this game, we propose two new distributed Bayesian learning algorithms, one for each agent, based on the classic Thompson Sampling policy for multi-armed bandits. These algorithms allow both agents to update beliefs about both the exogenous need and the behavior of the other agent and optimize their own expected reward. We show that by using these policies, the agents are able to intelligently adapt their strategies over multiple iterations to attain efficient, reward-maximizing equilibria under different settings, communicating and cooperating when it is rewarding to do so, and not communicating or cooperating when it is too expensive.

Gradient-based dimension reduction decreases the cost of Bayesian inference and probabilistic modeling by identifying maximally informative (and informed) low-dimensional projections of the data and parameters, allowing high-dimensional problems to be reformulated as cheaper low-dimensional problems. A broad family of such techniques identify these projections and provide error bounds on the resulting posterior approximations, via eigendecompositions of certain diagnostic matrices. Yet these matrices require gradients or even Hessians of the log-likelihood, excluding the purely data-driven setting and many problems of simulation-based inference. We propose a framework, derived from score-matching, to extend gradient-based dimension reduction to problems where gradients are unavailable. Specifically, we formulate an objective function to directly learn the score ratio function needed to compute the diagnostic matrices, propose a tailored parameterization for the score ratio network, and introduce regularization methods that capitalize on the hypothesized low-dimensional structure. We also introduce a novel algorithm to iteratively identify the low-dimensional reduced basis vectors more accurately with limited data based on eigenvalue deflation methods. We show that our approach outperforms standard score-matching for problems with low-dimensional structure, and demonstrate its effectiveness for PDE-constrained Bayesian inverse problems and conditional generative modeling.

A number of popular transfer learning methods rely on grid search to select regularization hyperparameters that control over-fitting. This grid search requirement has several key disadvantages: the search is computationally expensive, requires carving out a validation set that reduces the size of available data for model training, and requires practitioners to specify candidate values. In this paper, we propose an alternative to grid search: directly learning regularization hyperparameters on the full training set via model selection techniques based on the evidence lower bound ("ELBo") objective from variational methods. For deep neural networks with millions of parameters, we specifically recommend a modified ELBo that upweights the influence of the data likelihood relative to the prior while remaining a valid bound on the evidence for Bayesian model selection. Our proposed technique overcomes all three disadvantages of grid search. We demonstrate effectiveness on image classification tasks on several datasets, yielding heldout accuracy comparable to existing approaches with far less compute time.

In scenarios with limited training data or where explainability is crucial, conventional neural network-based machine learning models often face challenges. In contrast, Bayesian inference-based algorithms excel in providing interpretable predictions and reliable uncertainty estimation in these scenarios. While many state-of-the-art in-memory computing (IMC) architectures leverage emerging non-volatile memory (NVM) technologies to offer unparalleled computing capacity and energy efficiency for neural network workloads, their application in Bayesian inference is limited. This is because the core operations in Bayesian inference differ significantly from the multiplication-accumulation (MAC) operations common in neural networks, rendering them generally unsuitable for direct implementation in most existing IMC designs. In this paper, we propose FeBiM, an efficient and compact Bayesian inference engine powered by multi-bit ferroelectric field-effect transistor (FeFET)-based IMC. FeBiM effectively encodes the trained probabilities of a Bayesian inference model within a compact FeFET-based crossbar. It maps quantized logarithmic probabilities to discrete FeFET states. As a result, the accumulated outputs of the crossbar naturally represent the posterior probabilities, i.e., the Bayesian inference model's output given a set of observations. This approach enables efficient in-memory Bayesian inference without the need for additional calculation circuitry. As the first FeFET-based in-memory Bayesian inference engine, FeBiM achieves an impressive storage density of 26.32 Mb/mm$^{2}$ and a computing efficiency of 581.40 TOPS/W in a representative Bayesian classification task. These results demonstrate 10.7$\times$/43.4$\times$ improvement in compactness/efficiency compared to the state-of-the-art hardware implementation of Bayesian inference.

Differential privacy (DP) provides robust privacy guarantees for statistical inference, but this can lead to unreliable results and biases in downstream applications. While several noise-aware approaches have been proposed which integrate DP perturbation into the inference, they are limited to specific types of simple probabilistic models. In this work, we propose a novel method for noise-aware approximate Bayesian inference based on stochastic gradient variational inference which can also be applied to high-dimensional and non-conjugate models. We also propose a more accurate evaluation method for noise-aware posteriors. Empirically, our inference method has similar performance to existing methods in the domain where they are applicable. Outside this domain, we obtain accurate coverages on high-dimensional Bayesian linear regression and well-calibrated predictive probabilities on Bayesian logistic regression with the UCI Adult dataset.

Embedding retrieval aims to learn a shared semantic representation space for both queries and items, thus enabling efficient and effective item retrieval using approximate nearest neighbor (ANN) algorithms. In current industrial practice, retrieval systems typically retrieve a fixed number of items for different queries, which actually leads to insufficient retrieval (low recall) for head queries and irrelevant retrieval (low precision) for tail queries. Mostly due to the trend of frequentist approach to loss function designs, till now there is no satisfactory solution to holistically address this challenge in the industry. In this paper, we move away from the frequentist approach, and take a novel \textbf{p}robabilistic approach to \textbf{e}mbedding \textbf{b}ased \textbf{r}etrieval (namely \textbf{pEBR}) by learning the item distribution for different queries, which enables a dynamic cosine similarity threshold calculated by the probabilistic cumulative distribution function (CDF) value. The experimental results show that our approach improves both the retrieval precision and recall significantly. Ablation studies also illustrate how the probabilistic approach is able to capture the differences between head and tail queries.