Amortized simulation-based inference (SBI) methods train neural networks on simulated data to perform Bayesian inference. While this approach avoids the need for tractable likelihoods, it often requires a large number of simulations and has been challenging to scale to time-series data. Scientific simulators frequently emulate real-world dynamics through thousands of single-state transitions over time. We propose an SBI framework that can exploit such Markovian simulators by locally identifying parameters consistent with individual state transitions. We then compose these local results to obtain a posterior over parameters that align with the entire time series observation. We focus on applying this approach to neural posterior score estimation but also show how it can be applied, e.g., to neural likelihood (ratio) estimation. We demonstrate that our approach is more simulation-efficient than directly estimating the global posterior on several synthetic benchmark tasks and simulators used in ecology and epidemiology. Numerical simulations are a central approach for tackling problems in a wide range of scientific and engineering disciplines, including physics (Brehmer & Cranmer, 2022; Dax et al., 2021), molecular dynamics (Hollingsworth & Dror, 2018), neuroscience (Gonçalves et al., 2020) and climate science (Watson-Parris et al., 2021). Simulators often include at least some parameters that cannot be measured experimentally. Inferring such parameters from observed data is a fundamental challenge. Bayesian inference provides a principled approach to identifying parameters that align with empirical observations. Standard algorithms for Bayesian inference, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) (Gilks et al., 1995) and variational inference (Beal, 2003), generally require access to the likelihoods p(x|θ). However, for many simulators, directly evaluating the likelihood remains intractable, rendering conventional Bayesian approaches inapplicable.

Deep neural network ensembles are powerful tools for uncertainty quantification, which have recently been re-interpreted from a Bayesian perspective. However, current methods inadequately leverage second-order information of the loss landscape, despite the recent availability of efficient Hessian approximations. We propose a novel approximate Bayesian inference method that modifies deep ensembles to incorporate Stein Variational Newton updates. Our approach uniquely integrates scalable modern Hessian approximations, achieving faster convergence and more accurate posterior distribution approximations. We validate the effectiveness of our method on diverse regression and classification tasks, demonstrating superior performance with a significantly reduced number of training epochs compared to existing ensemble-based methods, while enhancing uncertainty quantification and robustness against overfitting.

Most methods in explainable AI (XAI) focus on providing reasons for the prediction of a given set of features. However, we solve an inverse explanation problem, i.e., given the deviation of a label, find the reasons of this deviation. We use a Bayesian framework to recover the ``true'' features, conditioned on the observed label value. We efficiently explain the deviation of a label value from the mode, by identifying and ranking the influential features using the ``distances'' in the ANOVA functional decomposition. We show that the new method is more human-intuitive and robust than methods based on mean values, e.g., SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP values). The extra costs of solving a Bayesian inverse problem are dimension-independent.

Railway Turnout Machines (RTMs) are mission-critical components of the railway transportation infrastructure, responsible for directing trains onto desired tracks. For safety assurance applications, especially in early-warning scenarios, RTM faults are expected to be detected as early as possible on a continuous 7x24 basis. However, limited emphasis has been placed on distributed model inference frameworks that can meet the inference latency and reliability requirements of such mission critical fault diagnosis systems. In this paper, an edge-cloud collaborative early-warning system is proposed to enable real-time and downtime-tolerant fault diagnosis of RTMs, providing a new paradigm for the deployment of models in safety-critical scenarios. Firstly, a modular fault diagnosis model is designed specifically for distributed deployment, which utilizes a hierarchical architecture consisting of the prior knowledge module, subordinate classifiers, and a fusion layer for enhanced accuracy and parallelism. Then, a cloud-edge collaborative framework leveraging pipeline parallelism, namely CEC-PA, is developed to minimize the overhead resulting from distributed task execution and context exchange by strategically partitioning and offloading model components across cloud and edge. Additionally, an election consensus mechanism is implemented within CEC-PA to ensure system robustness during coordinator node downtime. Comparative experiments and ablation studies are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed distributed fault diagnosis approach. Our ensemble-based fault diagnosis model achieves a remarkable 97.4% accuracy on a real-world dataset collected by Nanjing Metro in Jiangsu Province, China. Meanwhile, CEC-PA demonstrates superior recovery proficiency during node disruptions and speed-up ranging from 1.98x to 7.93x in total inference time compared to its counterparts.

When interacting with each other, humans adjust their behavior based on perceived trust. However, to achieve similar adaptability, robots must accurately estimate human trust at sufficiently granular timescales during the human-robot collaboration task. A beta reputation is a popular way to formalize a mathematical estimation of human trust. However, it relies on binary performance, which updates trust estimations only after each task concludes. Additionally, manually crafting a reward function is the usual method of building a performance indicator, which is labor-intensive and time-consuming. These limitations prevent efficiently capturing continuous changes in trust at more granular timescales throughout the collaboration task. Therefore, this paper presents a new framework for the estimation of human trust using a beta reputation at fine-grained timescales. To achieve granularity in beta reputation, we utilize continuous reward values to update trust estimations at each timestep of a task. We construct a continuous reward function using maximum entropy optimization to eliminate the need for the laborious specification of a performance indicator. The proposed framework improves trust estimations by increasing accuracy, eliminating the need for manually crafting a reward function, and advancing toward developing more intelligent robots. The source code is publicly available. https://github.com/resuldagdanov/robot-learning-human-trust

A common way to drive progress of AI models and agents is to compare their performance on standardized benchmarks. Comparing the performance of general agents requires aggregating their individual performances across a potentially wide variety of different tasks. In this paper, we describe a novel ranking scheme inspired by social choice frameworks, called Soft Condorcet Optimization (SCO), to compute the optimal ranking of agents: the one that makes the fewest mistakes in predicting the agent comparisons in the evaluation data. This optimal ranking is the maximum likelihood estimate when evaluation data (which we view as votes) are interpreted as noisy samples from a ground truth ranking, a solution to Condorcet's original voting system criteria. SCO ratings are maximal for Condorcet winners when they exist, which we show is not necessarily true for the classical rating system Elo. We propose three optimization algorithms to compute SCO ratings and evaluate their empirical performance. When serving as an approximation to the Kemeny-Young voting method, SCO rankings are on average 0 to 0.043 away from the optimal ranking in normalized Kendall-tau distance across 865 preference profiles from the PrefLib open ranking archive. In a simulated noisy tournament setting, SCO achieves accurate approximations to the ground truth ranking and the best among several baselines when 59\% or more of the preference data is missing. Finally, SCO ranking provides the best approximation to the optimal ranking, measured on held-out test sets, in a problem containing 52,958 human players across 31,049 games of the classic seven-player game of Diplomacy.

Foundational Vision-Language models such as CLIP have exhibited impressive generalization in downstream tasks. However, CLIP suffers from a two-level misalignment issue, i.e., task misalignment and data misalignment, when adapting to specific tasks. Soft prompt tuning has mitigated the task misalignment, yet the data misalignment remains a challenge. To analyze the impacts of the data misalignment, we revisit the pre-training and adaptation processes of CLIP and develop a structural causal model. We discover that while we expect to capture task-relevant information for downstream tasks accurately, the task-irrelevant knowledge impacts the prediction results and hampers the modeling of the true relationships between the images and the predicted classes. As task-irrelevant knowledge is unobservable, we leverage the front-door adjustment and propose Causality-Guided Semantic Decoupling and Classification (CDC) to mitigate the interference of task-irrelevant knowledge. Specifically, we decouple semantics contained in the data of downstream tasks and perform classification based on each semantic. Furthermore, we employ the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory to evaluate the uncertainty of each prediction generated by diverse semantics. Experiments conducted in multiple different settings have consistently demonstrated the effectiveness of CDC.

This paper deals with Elliptical Wishart distributions - which generalize the Wishart distribution - in the context of signal processing and machine learning. Two algorithms to compute the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) are proposed: a fixed point algorithm and a Riemannian optimization method based on the derived information geometry of Elliptical Wishart distributions. The existence and uniqueness of the MLE are characterized as well as the convergence of both estimation algorithms. Statistical properties of the MLE are also investigated such as consistency, asymptotic normality and an intrinsic version of Fisher efficiency. On the statistical learning side, novel classification and clustering methods are designed. For the $t$-Wishart distribution, the performance of the MLE and statistical learning algorithms are evaluated on both simulated and real EEG and hyperspectral data, showcasing the interest of our proposed methods.

In this work, we study probability functions associated with Gaussian mixture models. Our primary focus is on extending the use of spherical radial decomposition for multivariate Gaussian random vectors to the context of Gaussian mixture models, which are not inherently spherical but only conditionally so. Specifically, the conditional probability distribution, given a random parameter of the random vector, follows a Gaussian distribution, allowing us to apply Bayesian analysis tools to the probability function. This assumption, together with spherical radial decomposition for Gaussian random vectors, enables us to represent the probability function as an integral over the Euclidean sphere. Using this representation, we establish sufficient conditions to ensure the differentiability of the probability function and provide and integral representation of its gradient. Furthermore, leveraging the Bayesian decomposition, we approximate the probability function using random sampling over the parameter space and the Euclidean sphere. Finally, we present numerical examples that illustrate the advantages of this approach over classical approximations based on random vector sampling.

Point processes are widely used statistical models for uncovering the temporal patterns in dependent event data. In many applications, the event time cannot be observed exactly, calling for the incorporation of time uncertainty into the modeling of point process data. In this work, we introduce a framework to model time-uncertain point processes possibly on a network. We start by deriving the formulation in the continuous-time setting under a few assumptions motivated by application scenarios. After imposing a time grid, we obtain a discrete-time model that facilitates inference and can be computed by first-order optimization methods such as Gradient Descent or Variation inequality (VI) using batch-based Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD). The parameter recovery guarantee is proved for VI inference at an $O(1/k)$ convergence rate using $k$ SGD steps. Our framework handles non-stationary processes by modeling the inference kernel as a matrix (or tensor on a network) and it covers the stationary process, such as the classical Hawkes process, as a special case. We experimentally show that the proposed approach outperforms previous General Linear model (GLM) baselines on simulated and real data and reveals meaningful causal relations on a Sepsis-associated Derangements dataset.