Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are a class of generative models that allow exact and tractable inference for a wide range of queries. While recent developments have enabled the learning of deep and expressive PCs, this increased capacity can often lead to overfitting, especially when data is limited. We analyze PC overfitting from a log-likelihood-landscape perspective and show that it is often caused by convergence to sharp optima that generalize poorly. Inspired by sharpness aware minimization in neural networks, we propose a Hessian-based regularizer for training PCs. As a key contribution, we show that the trace of the Hessian of the log-likelihood-a sharpness proxy that is typically intractable in deep neural networks-can be computed efficiently for PCs. Minimizing this Hessian trace induces a gradient-norm-based regularizer that yields simple closed-form parameter updates for EM, and integrates seamlessly with gradient based learning methods. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our method consistently guides PCs toward flatter minima, improves generalization performance.

Unsupervised classification is a fundamental machine learning problem. Real-world data often contain imperfections, characterized by uncertainty and imprecision, which are not well handled by traditional methods. Evidential clustering, based on Dempster-Shafer theory, addresses these challenges. This paper explores the underexplored problem of explaining evidential clustering results, which is crucial for high-stakes domains such as healthcare. Our analysis shows that, in the general case, representativity is a necessary and sufficient condition for decision trees to serve as abductive explainers. Building on the concept of representativity, we generalize this idea to accommodate partial labeling through utility functions. These functions enable the representation of "tolerable" mistakes, leading to the definition of evidential mistakeness as explanation cost and the construction of explainers tailored to evidential classifiers. Finally, we propose the Iterative Evidential Mistake Minimization (IEMM) algorithm, which provides interpretable and cautious decision tree explanations for evidential clustering functions. We validate the proposed algorithm on synthetic and real-world data. Taking into account the decision-maker's preferences, we were able to provide an explanation that was satisfactory up to 93% of the time.

Accurate estimation of intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) parameters from diffusion-weighted MRI remains challenging due to the ill-posed nature of the inverse problem and high sensitivity to noise, particularly in the perfusion compartment. In this work, we propose a probabilistic deep learning framework based on Deep Ensembles (DE) of Mixture Density Networks (MDNs), enabling estimation of total predictive uncertainty and decomposition into aleatoric (AU) and epistemic (EU) components. The method was benchmarked against non probabilistic neural networks, a Bayesian fitting approach and a probabilistic network with single Gaussian parametrization. Supervised training was performed on synthetic data, and evaluation was conducted on both simulated and an in vivo dataset. The reliability of the quantified uncertainties was assessed using calibration curves, output distribution sharpness, and the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). MDNs produced more calibrated and sharper predictive distributions for the diffusion coefficient D and fraction f parameters, although slight overconfidence was observed in pseudo-diffusion coefficient D*. The Robust Coefficient of Variation (RCV) indicated smoother in vivo estimates for D* with MDNs compared to Gaussian model. Despite the training data covering the expected physiological range, elevated EU in vivo suggests a mismatch with real acquisition conditions, highlighting the importance of incorporating EU, which was allowed by DE. Overall, we present a comprehensive framework for IVIM fitting with uncertainty quantification, which enables the identification and interpretation of unreliable estimates. The proposed approach can also be adopted for fitting other physical models through appropriate architectural and simulation adjustments.

Personal use of this material is permitted. This paper has been published in the 8th IEEE Conference on Industrial Cyber-Physical Systems (ICPS) in Emden, Germany, May 12-15, 2025. Abstract --Accurately predicting the lifespan of critical device components is essential for maintenance planning and production optimization, making it a topic of significant interest in both academia and industry. In this work, we investigate the use of survival analysis for predicting the lifespan of production printheads developed by Canon Production Printing. Specifically, we focus on the application of five techniques to estimate survival probabilities and failure rates: the Kaplan-Meier estimator, Cox proportional hazard model, Weibull accelerated failure time model, random survival forest, and gradient boosting. The resulting estimates are further refined using isotonic regression and subsequently aggregated to determine the expected number of failures. The predictions are then validated against real-world ground truth data across multiple time windows to assess model reliability. Our quantitative evaluation using three performance metrics demonstrates that survival analysis outperforms industry-standard baseline methods for printhead lifespan prediction.

Circuit Satisfiability (CSAT) plays a pivotal role in Electronic Design Automation. The standard workflow for solving CSAT problems converts circuits into Conjunctive Normal Form (CNF) and employs generic SAT solvers powered by Conflict-Driven Clause Learning (CDCL). However, this process inherently discards rich structural and functional information, leading to suboptimal solver performance. To address this limitation, we introduce CASCAD, a novel circuit-aware SAT solving framework that directly leverages circuit-level conditional probabilities computed via Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). By explicitly modeling gate-level conditional probabilities, CASCAD dynamically guides two critical CDCL heuristics -- variable phase selection and clause managementto significantly enhance solver efficiency. Extensive evaluations on challenging real-world Logical Equivalence Checking (LEC) benchmarks demonstrate that CASCAD reduces solving times by up to 10x compared to state-of-the-art CNF-based approaches, achieving an additional 23.5% runtime reduction via our probability-guided clause filtering strategy. Our results underscore the importance of preserving circuit-level structural insights within SAT solvers, providing a robust foundation for future improvements in SAT-solving efficiency and EDA tool design.

Understanding and adhering to soft constraints is essential for safe and socially compliant autonomous driving. However, such constraints are often implicit, context-dependent, and difficult to specify explicitly. In this work, we present DRIVE, a novel framework for Dynamic Rule Inference and Verified Evaluation that models and evaluates human-like driving constraints from expert demonstrations. DRIVE leverages exponential-family likelihood modeling to estimate the feasibility of state transitions, constructing a probabilistic representation of soft behavioral rules that vary across driving contexts. These learned rule distributions are then embedded into a convex optimization-based planning module, enabling the generation of trajectories that are not only dynamically feasible but also compliant with inferred human preferences. Unlike prior approaches that rely on fixed constraint forms or purely reward-based modeling, DRIVE offers a unified framework that tightly couples rule inference with trajectory-level decision-making. It supports both data-driven constraint generalization and principled feasibility verification. We validate DRIVE on large-scale naturalistic driving datasets, including inD, highD, and RoundD, and benchmark it against representative inverse constraint learning and planning baselines. Experimental results show that DRIVE achieves 0.0% soft constraint violation rates, smoother trajectories, and stronger generalization across diverse driving scenarios. Verified evaluations further demonstrate the efficiency, explanability, and robustness of the framework for real-world deployment.

The specification of prior distributions is fundamental in Bayesian inference, yet it remains a significant bottleneck. The prior elicitation process is often a manual, subjective, and unscalable task. We propose a novel framework which leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to automate and scale this process. We introduce \texttt{LLMPrior}, a principled operator that translates rich, unstructured contexts such as natural language descriptions, data or figures into valid, tractable probability distributions. We formalize this operator by architecturally coupling an LLM with an explicit, tractable generative model, such as a Gaussian Mixture Model (forming a LLM based Mixture Density Network), ensuring the resulting prior satisfies essential mathematical properties. We further extend this framework to multi-agent systems where Logarithmic Opinion Pooling is employed to aggregate prior distributions induced by decentralized knowledge. We present the federated prior aggregation algorithm, \texttt{Fed-LLMPrior}, for aggregating distributed, context-dependent priors in a manner robust to agent heterogeneity. This work provides the foundation for a new class of tools that can potentially lower the barrier to entry for sophisticated Bayesian modeling.

We address the challenge of multi-robot autonomous hazard mapping in high-risk, failure-prone, communication-denied environments such as post-disaster zones, underground mines, caves, and planetary surfaces. In these missions, robots must explore and map hazards while minimizing the risk of failure due to environmental threats or hardware limitations. We introduce a behavior-adaptive, information-theoretic planning framework for multi-robot teams grounded in the concept of Behavioral Entropy (BE), that generalizes Shannon entropy (SE) to capture diverse human-like uncertainty evaluations. Building on this formulation, we propose the Behavior-Adaptive Path Planning (BAPP) framework, which modulates information gathering strategies via a tunable risk-sensitivity parameter, and present two planning algorithms: BAPP-TID for intelligent triggering of high-fidelity robots, and BAPP-SIG for safe deployment under high risk. We provide theoretical insights on the informativeness of the proposed BAPP framework and validate its effectiveness through both single-robot and multi-robot simulations. Our results show that the BAPP stack consistently outperforms Shannon-based and random strategies: BAPP-TID accelerates entropy reduction, while BAPP-SIG improves robot survivability with minimal loss in information gain. In multi-agent deployments, BAPP scales effectively through spatial partitioning, mobile base relocation, and role-aware heterogeneity. These findings underscore the value of behavior-adaptive planning for robust, risk-sensitive exploration in complex, failure-prone environments.

We propose a Likelihood Matching approach for training diffusion models by first establishing an equivalence between the likelihood of the target data distribution and a likelihood along the sample path of the reverse diffusion. To efficiently compute the reverse sample likelihood, a quasi-likelihood is considered to approximate each reverse transition density by a Gaussian distribution with matched conditional mean and covariance, respectively. The score and Hessian functions for the diffusion generation are estimated by maximizing the quasi-likelihood, ensuring a consistent matching of both the first two transitional moments between every two time points. A stochastic sampler is introduced to facilitate computation that leverages on both the estimated score and Hessian information. We establish consistency of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, and provide non-asymptotic convergence guarantees for the proposed sampler, quantifying the rates of the approximation errors due to the score and Hessian estimation, dimensionality, and the number of diffusion steps. Empirical and simulation evaluations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed Likelihood Matching and validate the theoretical results.

Belief systems are often treated as globally consistent sets of propositions or as scalar-valued probability distributions. Such representations tend to obscure the internal structure of belief, conflate external credibility with internal coherence, and preclude the modeling of fragmented or contradictory epistemic states. This paper introduces a minimal formalism for belief systems as directed, weighted graphs. In this framework, nodes represent individual beliefs, edges encode epistemic relationships (e.g., support or contradiction), and two distinct functions assign each belief a credibility (reflecting source trust) and a confidence (derived from internal structural support). Unlike classical probabilistic models, our approach does not assume prior coherence or require belief updating. Unlike logical and argumentation-based frameworks, it supports fine-grained structural representation without committing to binary justification status or deductive closure. The model is purely static and deliberately excludes inference or revision procedures. Its aim is to provide a foundational substrate for analyzing the internal organization of belief systems, including coherence conditions, epistemic tensions, and representational limits. By distinguishing belief structure from belief strength, this formalism enables a richer classification of epistemic states than existing probabilistic, logical, or argumentation-based approaches.