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 Uncertainty




Credal Learning Theory

Neural Information Processing Systems

Statistical learning theory is the foundation of machine learning, providing theoretical bounds for the risk of models learned from a (single) training set, assumed to issue from an unknown probability distribution.







Wavefunction Flows: Efficient Quantum Simulation of Continuous Flow Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Flow models are a cornerstone of modern machine learning. They are generative models that progressively transform probability distributions according to learned dynamics. Specifically, they learn a continuous-time Markov process that efficiently maps samples from a simple source distribution into samples from a complex target distribution. We show that these models are naturally related to the Schrödinger equation, for an unusual Hamiltonian on continuous variables. Moreover, we prove that the dynamics generated by this Hamiltonian can be efficiently simulated on a quantum computer. Together, these results give a quantum algorithm for preparing coherent encodings (a.k.a., qsamples) for a vast family of probability distributions--namely, those expressible by flow models--by reducing the task to an existing classical learning problem, plus Hamiltonian simulation. For statistical problems defined by flow models, such as mean estimation and property testing, this enables the use of quantum algorithms tailored to qsamples, which may offer advantages over classical algorithms based only on samples from a flow model. More broadly, these results reveal a close connection between state-of-the-art machine learning models, such as flow matching and diffusion models, and one of the main expected capabilities of quantum computers: simulating quantum dynamics.


Stick-Breaking Mixture Normalizing Flows with Component-Wise Tail Adaptation for Variational Inference

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Normalizing flows with a Gaussian base provide a computationally efficient way to approximate posterior distributions in Bayesian inference, but they often struggle to capture complex posteriors with multimodality and heavy tails. We propose a stick-breaking mixture base with component-wise tail adaptation (StiCTAF) for posterior approximation. The method first learns a flexible mixture base to mitigate the mode-seeking bias of reverse KL divergence through a weighted average of component-wise ELBOs. It then estimates local tail indices of unnormalized densities and finally refines each mixture component using a shared backbone combined with component-specific tail transforms calibrated by the estimated indices. This design enables accurate mode coverage and anisotropic tail modeling while retaining exact density evaluation and stable optimization. Experiments on synthetic posteriors demonstrate improved tail recovery and better coverage of multiple modes compared to benchmark models. We also present a real-data analysis illustrating the practical benefits of our approach for posterior inference.