Agentic AI systems execute a sequence of actions, such as reasoning steps or tool calls, in response to a user prompt. To evaluate the success of their trajectories, researchers have developed verifiers, such as LLM judges and process-reward models, to score the quality of each action in an agent's trajectory. Although these heuristic scores can be informative, there are no guarantees of correctness when used to decide whether an agent will yield a successful output. Here, we introduce e-valuator, a method to convert any black-box verifier score into a decision rule with provable control of false alarm rates. We frame the problem of distinguishing successful trajectories (that is, a sequence of actions that will lead to a correct response to the user's prompt) and unsuccessful trajectories as a sequential hypothesis testing problem. E-valuator builds on tools from e-processes to develop a sequential hypothesis test that remains statistically valid at every step of an agent's trajectory, enabling online monitoring of agents over arbitrarily long sequences of actions. Empirically, we demonstrate that e-valuator provides greater statistical power and better false alarm rate control than other strategies across six datasets and three agents. We additionally show that e-valuator can be used for to quickly terminate problematic trajectories and save tokens. Together, e-valuator provides a lightweight, model-agnostic framework that converts verifier heuristics into decisions rules with statistical guarantees, enabling the deployment of more reliable agentic systems.

We introduce Density-Informed VAE (DiVAE), a lightweight, data-driven regularizer that aligns the VAE log-prior probability $\log p_Z(z)$ with a log-density estimated from data. Standard VAEs match latents to a simple prior, overlooking density structure in the data-space. DiVAE encourages the encoder to allocate posterior mass in proportion to data-space density and, when the prior is learnable, nudges the prior toward high-density regions. This is realized by adding a robust, precision-weighted penalty to the ELBO, incurring negligible computational overhead. On synthetic datasets, DiVAE (i) improves distributional alignment of latent log-densities to its ground truth counterpart, (ii) improves prior coverage, and (iii) yields better OOD uncertainty calibration. On MNIST, DiVAE improves alignment of the prior with external estimates of the density, providing better interpretability, and improves OOD detection for learnable priors.

Crowdsourcing enables scalable autonomous driving map construction, but low-cost sensor noise hinders quality from improving with data volume. We propose CSMapping, a system that produces accurate semantic maps and topological road centerlines whose quality consistently increases with more crowdsourced data. For semantic mapping, we train a latent diffusion model on HD maps (optionally conditioned on SD maps) to learn a generative prior of real-world map structure, without requiring paired crowdsourced/HD-map supervision. This prior is incorporated via constrained MAP optimization in latent space, ensuring robustness to severe noise and plausible completion in unobserved areas. Initialization uses a robust vectorized mapping module followed by diffusion inversion; optimization employs efficient Gaussian-basis reparameterization, projected gradient descent zobracket multi-start, and latent-space factor-graph for global consistency. For topological mapping, we apply confidence-weighted k-medoids clustering and kinematic refinement to trajectories, yielding smooth, human-like centerlines robust to trajectory variation. Experiments on nuScenes, Argoverse 2, and a large proprietary dataset achieve state-of-the-art semantic and topological mapping performance, with thorough ablation and scalability studies.

Active inference proposes expected free energy as an objective for planning and decision-making to adequately balance exploitative and explorative drives in learning agents. The exploitative drive, or what an agent wants to achieve, is formalised as the Kullback-Leibler divergence between a variational probability distribution, updated at each inference step, and a preference probability distribution that indicates what states or observations are more likely for the agent, hence determining the agent's goal in a certain environment. In the literature, the questions of how the preference distribution should be specified and of how a certain specification impacts inference and learning in an active inference agent have been given hardly any attention. In this work, we consider four possible ways of defining the preference distribution, either providing the agents with hard or soft goals and either involving or not goal shaping (i.e., intermediate goals). We compare the performances of four agents, each given one of the possible preference distributions, in a grid world navigation task. Our results show that goal shaping enables the best performance overall (i.e., it promotes exploitation) while sacrificing learning about the environment's transition dynamics (i.e., it hampers exploration).

Reliable real-time analysis of sensor data is essential for structural health monitoring (SHM) of high-value assets, yet a major challenge is to obtain spatially resolved full-field aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties for trustworthy decision-making. We present an integrated SHM framework that combines principal component analysis (PCA), a Bayesian neural network (BNN), and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) inference, mapping sparse strain gauge measurements onto leading PCA modes to reconstruct full-field strain distributions with uncertainty quantification. The framework was validated through cyclic four-point bending tests on carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) specimens with varying crack lengths, achieving accurate strain field reconstruction (R squared value > 0.9) while simultaneously producing real-time uncertainty fields. A key contribution is that the BNN yields robust full-field strain reconstructions from noisy experimental data with crack-induced strain singularities, while also providing explicit representations of two complementary uncertainty fields. Considered jointly in full-field form, the aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty fields make it possible to diagnose at a local level, whether low-confidence regions are driven by data-inherent issues or by model-related limitations, thereby supporting reliable decision-making. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the proposed framework advances SHM toward trustworthy digital twin deployment and risk-aware structural diagnostics.

Loss of lung function in cystic fibrosis (CF) occurs progressively, punctuated by acute pulmonary exacerbations (PEx) in which abrupt declines in lung function are not fully recovered. A key component of CF management over the past half century has been the treatment of PEx to slow lung function decline. This has been credited with improvements in survival for people with CF (PwCF), but there is no consensus on the optimal approach to PEx management. BEAT-CF (Bayesian evidence-adaptive treatment of CF) was established to build an evidence-informed knowledge base for CF management. The BEAT-CF causal model is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) and Bayesian network (BN) for PEx that aims to inform the design and analysis of clinical trials comparing the effectiveness of alternative approaches to PEx management. The causal model describes relationships between background risk factors, treatments, and pathogen colonisation of the airways that affect the outcome of an individual PEx episode. The key factors, outcomes, and causal relationships were elicited from CF clinical experts and together represent current expert understanding of the pathophysiology of a PEx episode, guiding the design of data collection and studies and enabling causal inference. Here, we present the DAG that documents this understanding, along with the processes used in its development, providing transparency around our trial design and study processes, as well as a reusable framework for others.

This paper develops the foundations of Quantum Granular Computing (QGC), extending classical granular computing including fuzzy, rough, and shadowed granules to the quantum regime. Quantum granules are modeled as effects on a finite dimensional Hilbert space, so granular memberships are given by Born probabilities. This operator theoretic viewpoint provides a common language for sharp (projective) and soft (nonprojective) granules and embeds granulation directly into the standard formalism of quantum information theory. We establish foundational results for effect based quantum granules, including normalization and monotonicity properties, the emergence of Boolean islands from commuting families, granular refinement under Luders updates, and the evolution of granules under quantum channels via the adjoint channel in the Heisenberg picture. We connect QGC with quantum detection and estimation theory by interpreting the effect operators realizing Helstrom minimum error measurement for binary state discrimination as Helstrom type decision granules, i.e., soft quantum counterparts of Bayes optimal decision regions. Building on these results, we introduce Quantum Granular Decision Systems (QGDS) with three reference architectures that specify how quantum granules can be defined, learned, and integrated with classical components while remaining compatible with near term quantum hardware. Case studies on qubit granulation, two qubit parity effects, and Helstrom style soft decisions illustrate how QGC reproduces fuzzy like graded memberships and smooth decision boundaries while exploiting noncommutativity, contextuality, and entanglement. The framework thus provides a unified and mathematically grounded basis for operator valued granules in quantum information processing, granular reasoning, and intelligent systems.

Diffusion models achieve high-quality image generation but are limited by slow iterative sampling. Distillation methods alleviate this by enabling one- or few-step generation. Flow matching, originally introduced as a distinct framework, has since been shown to be theoretically equivalent to diffusion under Gaussian assumptions, raising the question of whether distillation techniques such as score distillation transfer directly. We provide a simple derivation -- based on Bayes' rule and conditional expectations -- that unifies Gaussian diffusion and flow matching without relying on ODE/SDE formulations. Building on this view, we extend Score identity Distillation (SiD) to pretrained text-to-image flow-matching models, including SANA, SD3-Medium, SD3.5-Medium/Large, and FLUX.1-dev, all with DiT backbones. Experiments show that, with only modest flow-matching- and DiT-specific adjustments, SiD works out of the box across these models, in both data-free and data-aided settings, without requiring teacher finetuning or architectural changes. This provides the first systematic evidence that score distillation applies broadly to text-to-image flow matching models, resolving prior concerns about stability and soundness and unifying acceleration techniques across diffusion- and flow-based generators. A project page is available at https://yigu1008.github.io/SiD-DiT.

Model-based filtering is often carried out while subject to an imperfect model, as learning partially-observable stochastic systems remains a challenge. Recent work on Bayesian inference found that tempering the likelihood or full posterior of an imperfect model can improve predictive accuracy, as measured by expected negative log likelihood. In this paper, we develop the tempered Bayes filter, improving estimation performance through both of the aforementioned, and one newly introduced, modalities. The result admits a recursive implementation with a computational complexity no higher than that of the original Bayes filter. Our analysis reveals that -- besides the well-known fact in the field of Bayesian inference that likelihood tempering affects the balance between prior and likelihood -- full-posterior tempering tunes the level of entropy in the final belief distribution. We further find that a region of the tempering space can be understood as interpolating between the Bayes- and MAP filters, recovering these as special cases. Analytical results further establish conditions under which a tempered Bayes filter achieves improved predictive performance. Specializing the results to the linear Gaussian case, we obtain the tempered Kalman filter. In this context, we interpret how the parameters affect the Kalman state estimate and covariance propagation. Empirical results confirm that our method consistently improves predictive accuracy over the Bayes filter baseline.

To address the scalability limitations of Gaussian process (GP) regression, several approximation techniques have been proposed. One such method is based on tensor networks, which utilizes an exponential number of basis functions without incurring exponential computational cost. However, extending this model to a fully probabilistic formulation introduces several design challenges. In particular, for tensor train (TT) models, it is unclear which TT-core should be treated in a Bayesian manner. We introduce a Bayesian tensor train kernel machine that applies Laplace approximation to estimate the posterior distribution over a selected TT-core and employs variational inference (VI) for precision hyperparameters. Experiments show that core selection is largely independent of TT-ranks and feature structure, and that VI replaces cross-validation while offering up to 65x faster training. The method's effectiveness is demonstrated on an inverse dynamics problem.