Identification and Estimation under Multiple Versions of Treatment: Mixture-of-Experts Approach Kohei Y oshikawa Shuichi Kawano January 5, 2026 Abstract The Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption (SUTV A) includes the condition that there are no multiple versions of treatment in causal inference. Though we could not control the implementation of treatment in observational studies, multiple versions may exist in the treatment. It has been pointed out that ignoring such multiple versions of treatment can lead to biased estimates of causal effects, but a causal inference framework that explicitly deals with the unbiased identification and estimation of version-specific causal effects has not been fully developed yet. Thus, obtaining a deeper understanding for mechanisms of the complex treatments is difficult. In this paper, we introduce the Mixture-of-Experts framework into causal inference and develop a methodology for estimating the causal effects of latent versions. This approach enables explicit estimation of version-specific causal effects even if the versions are not observed. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Keywords causal inference multiple versions of treatment compound treatments mixture-of-experts EM algorithm 1 Introduction In the theory of causal inference, a fundamental starting point is the potential outcomes framework since Rubin (1980), whose core assumption is the Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption (SUTV A).

Numerical simulation of complex physical phenomena is a core enabling technology for digital twins, which are comprised of physical and virtual assets with a two-way flow of information: data from the physical asset is used to construct and/or calibrate the virtual asset (a numerical model), while numerical predictions from the virtual asset are used for control or decision-making for the physical asset [42]. To be viable for practical application, the virtual asset must be able to produce predictions rapidly and reliably; however, the underlying physics that are of interest for digital twin applications can typically only be accurately simulated using a large number of degrees of freedom, leading to computationally expensive numerical simulations. The explainability and computational efficiency of decisions made by the digital twin play a key role in safety-critical applications, making explainable artificial intelligence an essential ingredient [24]. Model reduction techniques are one such explainable scientific machine learning technique that construct low-dimensional systems, called reduced-order models (ROMs), to serve as computationally inexpensive surrogates for a high-dimensional physics simulation [4, 20]. This paper introduces a technique for adaptively constructing ROMs to emulate systems with parametric dependence, that is, systems whose behavior varies with some set of parameters, usually representing physical properties. We focus on systems where the parametric dependence manifests in the operators defining the model, not merely in initial conditions or external inputs.

Distribution shift is the defining challenge of real-world machine learning. The dominant paradigm--Unsupervised Domain Adaptation (UDA)--enforces feature invariance, aligning source and target representations via symmetric divergence minimization [Ganin et al., 2016]. We demonstrate that this approach is fundamentally flawed: when domains are unequally informative (e.g., high-quality vs degraded sensors), strict invariance necessitates information destruction, causing "negative transfer" that can be catastrophic in safety-critical applications [Wang et al., 2019]. We propose a decision-theoretic framework grounded in Le Cam's theory of statistical experiments [Le Cam, 1986], using constructive approximations to replace symmetric invariance with directional simulability. We introduce Le Cam Distortion, quantified by the Deficiency Distance $δ(E_1, E_2)$, as a rigorous upper bound for transfer risk conditional on simulability. Our framework enables transfer without source degradation by learning a kernel that simulates the target from the source. Across five experiments (genomics, vision, reinforcement learning), Le Cam Distortion achieves: (1) near-perfect frequency estimation in HLA genomics (correlation $r=0.999$, matching classical methods), (2) zero source utility loss in CIFAR-10 image classification (81.2% accuracy preserved vs 34.7% drop for CycleGAN), and (3) safe policy transfer in RL control where invariance-based methods suffer catastrophic collapse. Le Cam Distortion provides the first principled framework for risk-controlled transfer learning in domains where negative transfer is unacceptable: medical imaging, autonomous systems, and precision medicine.

Accurate spatial interpolation of the air quality index (AQI), computed from concentrations of multiple air pollutants, is essential for regulatory decision-making, yet AQI fields are inherently non-Gaussian and often exhibit complex nonlinear spatial structure. Classical spatial prediction methods such as kriging are linear and rely on Gaussian assumptions, which limits their ability to capture these features and to provide reliable predictive distributions. In this study, we propose \textit{deep classifier kriging} (DCK), a flexible, distribution-free deep learning framework for estimating full predictive distribution functions for univariate and bivariate spatial processes, together with a \textit{data fusion} mechanism that enables modeling of non-collocated bivariate processes and integration of heterogeneous air pollution data sources. Through extensive simulation experiments, we show that DCK consistently outperforms conventional approaches in predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification. We further apply DCK to probabilistic spatial prediction of AQI by fusing sparse but high-quality station observations with spatially continuous yet biased auxiliary model outputs, yielding spatially resolved predictive distributions that support downstream tasks such as exceedance and extreme-event probability estimation for regulatory risk assessment and policy formulation.

Causal inference is a key research area in machine learning, yet confusion reigns over the tools needed to tackle it. There are prevalent claims in the machine learning literature that you need a bespoke causal framework or notation to answer causal questions. In this paper, we want to make it clear that you \emph{can} answer any causal inference question within the realm of probabilistic modelling and inference, without causal-specific tools or notation. Through concrete examples, we demonstrate how causal questions can be tackled by writing down the probability of everything. Lastly, we reinterpret causal tools as emerging from standard probabilistic modelling and inference, elucidating their necessity and utility.

We consider problems of parameter estimation where design variables can be actively optimized to maximize information gain. To this end, we introduce JADAI, a framework that jointly amortizes Bayesian adaptive design and inference by training a policy, a history network, and an inference network end-to-end. The networks minimize a generic loss that aggregates incremental reductions in posterior error along experimental sequences. Inference networks are instantiated with diffusion-based posterior estimators that can approximate high-dimensional and multimodal posteriors at every experimental step. Across standard adaptive design benchmarks, JADAI achieves superior or competitive performance.

Modern machine learning embeddings provide powerful compression of high-dimensional data, yet they typically destroy the geometric structure required for classical likelihood-based statistical inference. This paper develops a rigorous theory of likelihood-preserving embeddings: learned representations that can replace raw data in likelihood-based workflows -- hypothesis testing, confidence interval construction, model selection -- without altering inferential conclusions. We introduce the Likelihood-Ratio Distortion metric $Δ_n$, which measures the maximum error in log-likelihood ratios induced by an embedding. Our main theoretical contribution is the Hinge Theorem, which establishes that controlling $Δ_n$ is necessary and sufficient for preserving inference. Specifically, if the distortion satisfies $Δ_n = o_p(1)$, then (i) all likelihood-ratio based tests and Bayes factors are asymptotically preserved, and (ii) surrogate maximum likelihood estimators are asymptotically equivalent to full-data MLEs. We prove an impossibility result showing that universal likelihood preservation requires essentially invertible embeddings, motivating the need for model-class-specific guarantees. We then provide a constructive framework using neural networks as approximate sufficient statistics, deriving explicit bounds connecting training loss to inferential guarantees. Experiments on Gaussian and Cauchy distributions validate the sharp phase transition predicted by exponential family theory, and applications to distributed clinical inference demonstrate practical utility.

Across fields such as machine learning, social science, geography, considerable attention has been given to models that factorize a nonnegative matrix into the product of two or three matrices, subject to nonnegative or row-sum-to-1 constraints. Although these models are to a large extend similar or even equivalent, they are presented under different names, and their similarity is not well known. This paper highlights similarities among five popular models, latent budget analysis (LBA), latent class analysis (LCA), end-member analysis (EMA), probabilistic latent semantic analysis (PLSA), and nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF). We focus on an essential issue-identifiability-of these models and prove that the solution of LBA, EMA, LCA, PLSA is unique if and only if the solution of NMF is unique. We also provide a brief review for algorithms of these models. We illustrate the models with a time budget dataset from social science, and end the paper with a discussion of closely related models such as archetypal analysis.

Singular learning theory (SLT) \citep{watanabe2009algebraic,watanabe2018mathematical} provides a rigorous asymptotic framework for Bayesian models with non-identifiable parameterizations, yet the statistical meaning of its second-order invariant, the \emph{singular fluctuation}, has remained unclear. In this work, we show that singular fluctuation admits a precise and natural interpretation as a \emph{specific heat}: the second derivative of the Bayesian free energy with respect to temperature. Equivalently, it measures the posterior variance of the log-likelihood observable under the tempered Gibbs posterior. We further introduce a collection of related thermodynamic quantities, including entropy flow, prior susceptibility, and cross-susceptibility, that together provide a detailed geometric diagnosis of singular posterior structure. Through extensive numerical experiments spanning discrete symmetries, boundary singularities, continuous gauge freedoms, and piecewise (ReLU) models, we demonstrate that these thermodynamic signatures cleanly distinguish singularity types, exhibit stable finite-sample behavior, and reveal phase-transition--like phenomena as temperature varies. We also show empirically that the widely used WAIC estimator \citep{watanabe2010asymptotic, watanabe2013widely} is exactly twice the thermodynamic specific heat at unit temperature, clarifying its robustness in singular models.Our results establish a concrete bridge between singular learning theory and statistical mechanics, providing both theoretical insight and practical diagnostics for modern Bayesian models.

Vision-language models, such as CLIP, have shown impressive generalization capacities when using appropriate text descriptions.