Goto

Collaborating Authors

 Uncertainty


The Fewer Splits are Better: Deconstructing Readability in Sentence Splitting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this work, we focus on sentence splitting, a subfield of text simplification, motivated largely by an unproven idea that if you divide a sentence in pieces, it should become easier to understand. Our primary goal in this paper is to find out whether this is true. In particular, we ask, does it matter whether we break a sentence into two or three? We report on our findings based on Amazon Mechanical Turk. More specifically, we introduce a Bayesian modeling framework to further investigate to what degree a particular way of splitting the complex sentence affects readability, along with a number of other parameters adopted from diverse perspectives, including clinical linguistics, and cognitive linguistics. The Bayesian modeling experiment provides clear evidence that bisecting the sentence leads to enhanced readability to a degree greater than what we create by trisection.


Bayesian Inference on Binary Spiking Networks Leveraging Nanoscale Device Stochasticity

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) can overcome the problem of overconfidence that plagues traditional frequentist deep neural networks, and are hence considered to be a key enabler for reliable AI systems. In this paper, we introduce a novel Phase Change Memory (PCM)-based hardware implementation for BNNs with binary synapses. The proposed architecture consists of separate weight and noise planes, in which PCM cells are configured (b) Proposed hardware architecture consisting of a N M crossbar and operated to represent the nominal values of weights and of differential PCM (DPCM) cells, referred to as the weight to generate the required noise for sampling, respectively. We choose L < M and reuse hardware accuracy and expected calibration error matching that the conductance values from the L rows in the noise plane stored of an 8-bit fixed-point (FxP8) implementation, with projected in a register through stochastic arbitration (SA), in order to reduce savings of over 9 in terms of core area transistor count. Non-volatile memory (NVM) devices such as Resistive RAM (RRAM), Phase Change Memory (PCM) and Spin-Modern neural networks tend to produce overconfident decisions, Transfer Torque RAM (STTRAM) are being explored for misrepresenting the inherent epistemic uncertainty that the implementation of in-memory computing (IMC) architectures arises from access to limited data [1].


Bayesian Optimization of Multiple Objectives with Different Latencies

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-objective Bayesian optimization aims to find the Pareto front of optimal trade-offs between a set of expensive objectives while collecting as few samples as possible. In some cases, it is possible to evaluate the objectives separately, and a different latency or evaluation cost can be associated with each objective. This presents an opportunity to learn the Pareto front faster by evaluating the cheaper objectives more frequently. We propose a scalarization based knowledge gradient acquisition function which accounts for the different evaluation costs of the objectives. We prove consistency of the algorithm and show empirically that it significantly outperforms a benchmark algorithm which always evaluates both objectives.


Uncertainty in Fairness Assessment: Maintaining Stable Conclusions Despite Fluctuations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the current adoption of machine learning (ML) systems in social, economic, and industrial domains, concerns about the fairness of automated decisions have been added to the problem of ensuring the efficiency of algorithms in a stable and interpretative manner. Although both aspects are measured in terms of performance metrics, fairness entails the additional challenge of incorporating sensitive information in the data and new procedures need to be considered to control the stability of such outcomes. Recent ML trends are increasingly encouraging researchers to incorporate uncertainty into the evaluation of algorithm-based systems. In order to increase the transparency of algorithmic performance measures, typically for comparison purposes, some authors [3, 19] propose to treat these metrics as random variables whose posterior distributions are updated through Bayesian inference. In the fair learning setting, these kinds of considerations are also necessary, especially since fairness metrics have been proved unstable with respect to dataset composition. In particular, Ji et al. [17] or Friedler et al. [12] showed how certain fairness metrics strongly vary, respectively, in hold-out


Online Re-Planning and Adaptive Parameter Update for Multi-Agent Path Finding with Stochastic Travel Times

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study explores the problem of Multi-Agent Path Finding with continuous and stochastic travel times whose probability distribution is unknown. Our purpose is to manage a group of automated robots that provide package delivery services in a building where pedestrians and a wide variety of robots coexist, such as delivery services in office buildings, hospitals, and apartments. It is often the case with these real-world applications that the time required for the robots to traverse a corridor takes a continuous value and is randomly distributed, and the prior knowledge of the probability distribution of the travel time is limited. Multi-Agent Path Finding has been widely studied and applied to robot management systems; however, automating the robot operation in such environments remains difficult. We propose 1) online re-planning to update the action plan of robots while it is executed, and 2) parameter update to estimate the probability distribution of travel time using Bayesian inference as the delay is observed. We use a greedy heuristic to obtain solutions in a limited computation time. Through simulations, we empirically compare the performance of our method to those of existing methods in terms of the conflict probability and the actual travel time of robots. The simulation results indicate that the proposed method can find travel paths with at least 50% fewer conflicts and a shorter actual total travel time than existing methods. The proposed method requires a small number of trials to achieve the performance because the parameter update is prioritized on the important edges for path planning, thereby satisfying the requirements of quick implementation of robust planning of automated delivery services.


The YODO algorithm: An efficient computational framework for sensitivity analysis in Bayesian networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Sensitivity analysis measures the influence of a Bayesian network's parameters on a quantity of interest defined by the network, such as the probability of a variable taking a specific value. Various sensitivity measures have been defined to quantify such influence, most commonly some function of the quantity of interest's partial derivative with respect to the network's conditional probabilities. However, computing these measures in large networks with thousands of parameters can become computationally very expensive. We propose an algorithm combining automatic differentiation and exact inference to efficiently calculate the sensitivity measures in a single pass. It first marginalizes the whole network once, using e.g. variable elimination, and then backpropagates this operation to obtain the gradient with respect to all input parameters. Our method can be used for one-way and multi-way sensitivity analysis and the derivation of admissible regions. Simulation studies highlight the efficiency of our algorithm by scaling it to massive networks with up to 100'000 parameters and investigate the feasibility of generic multi-way analyses. Our routines are also showcased over two medium-sized Bayesian networks: the first modeling the country-risks of a humanitarian crisis, the second studying the relationship between the use of technology and the psychological effects of forced social isolation during the COVID-19 pandemic. An implementation of the methods using the popular machine learning library PyTorch is freely available.


Split Happens! Imprecise and Negative Information in Gaussian Mixture Random Finite Set Filtering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In object tracking and state estimation problems, ambiguous evidence such as imprecise measurements and the absence of detections can contain valuable information and thus be leveraged to further refine the probabilistic belief state. In particular, knowledge of a sensor's bounded field-of-view can be exploited to incorporate evidence of where an object was not observed. This paper presents a systematic approach for incorporating knowledge of the field-of-view geometry and position and object inclusion/exclusion evidence into object state densities and random finite set multi-object cardinality distributions. The resulting state estimation problem is nonlinear and solved using a new Gaussian mixture approximation based on recursive component splitting. Based on this approximation, a novel Gaussian mixture Bernoulli filter for imprecise measurements is derived and demonstrated in a tracking problem using only natural language statements as inputs. This paper also considers the relationship between bounded fields-of-view and cardinality distributions for a representative selection of multi-object distributions, which can be used for sensor planning, as is demonstrated through a problem involving a multi-Bernoulli process with up to one-hundred potential objects.


Active Sequential Two-Sample Testing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Two-sample testing tests whether the distributions generating two samples are identical. We pose the two-sample testing problem in a new scenario where the sample measurements (or sample features) are inexpensive to access, but their group memberships (or labels) are costly. We devise the first \emph{active sequential two-sample testing framework} that not only sequentially but also \emph{actively queries} sample labels to address the problem. Our test statistic is a likelihood ratio where one likelihood is found by maximization over all class priors, and the other is given by a classification model. The classification model is adaptively updated and then used to guide an active query scheme called bimodal query to label sample features in the regions with high dependency between the feature variables and the label variables. The theoretical contributions in the paper include proof that our framework produces an \emph{anytime-valid} $p$-value; and, under reachable conditions and a mild assumption, the framework asymptotically generates a minimum normalized log-likelihood ratio statistic that a passive query scheme can only achieve when the feature variable and the label variable have the highest dependence. Lastly, we provide a \emph{query-switching (QS)} algorithm to decide when to switch from passive query to active query and adapt bimodal query to increase the testing power of our test. Extensive experiments justify our theoretical contributions and the effectiveness of QS.


Max-Quantile Grouped Infinite-Arm Bandits

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we consider a bandit problem in which there are a number of groups each consisting of infinitely many arms. Whenever a new arm is requested from a given group, its mean reward is drawn from an unknown reservoir distribution (different for each group), and the uncertainty in the arm's mean reward can only be reduced via subsequent pulls of the arm. The goal is to identify the infinite-arm group whose reservoir distribution has the highest $(1-\alpha)$-quantile (e.g., median if $\alpha = \frac{1}{2}$), using as few total arm pulls as possible. We introduce a two-step algorithm that first requests a fixed number of arms from each group and then runs a finite-arm grouped max-quantile bandit algorithm. We characterize both the instance-dependent and worst-case regret, and provide a matching lower bound for the latter, while discussing various strengths, weaknesses, algorithmic improvements, and potential lower bounds associated with our instance-dependent upper bounds.


Pessimistic Off-Policy Optimization for Learning to Rank

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Off-policy learning is a framework for optimizing policies without deploying them, using data collected by another policy. In recommender systems, this is especially challenging due to the imbalance in logged data: some items are recommended and thus logged more frequently than others. This is further perpetuated when recommending a list of items, as the action space is combinatorial. To address this challenge, we study pessimistic off-policy optimization for learning to rank. The key idea is to compute lower confidence bounds on parameters of click models and then return the list with the highest pessimistic estimate of its value. This approach is computationally efficient and we analyze it. We study its Bayesian and frequentist variants, and overcome the limitation of unknown prior by incorporating empirical Bayes. To show the empirical effectiveness of our approach, we compare it to off-policy optimizers that use inverse propensity scores or neglect uncertainty. Our approach outperforms all baselines, is robust, and is also general.