The aim of this paper is to establish a causal link between the policies implemented by technology companies and the outcomes they yield within intricate temporal and/or spatial dependent experiments. We propose a novel temporal/spatio-temporal Varying Coefficient Decision Process (VCDP) model, capable of effectively capturing the evolving treatment effects in situations characterized by temporal and/or spatial dependence. Our methodology encompasses the decomposition of the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) into the Direct Effect (DE) and the Indirect Effect (IE). We subsequently devise comprehensive procedures for estimating and making inferences about both DE and IE. Additionally, we provide a rigorous analysis of the statistical properties of these procedures, such as asymptotic power. To substantiate the effectiveness of our approach, we carry out extensive simulations and real data analyses.

Learning from noisy labels is an important and long-standing problem in machine learning for real applications. One of the main research lines focuses on learning a label corrector to purify potential noisy labels. However, these methods typically rely on strict assumptions and are limited to certain types of label noise. In this paper, we reformulate the label-noise problem from a generative-model perspective, $\textit{i.e.}$, labels are generated by gradually refining an initial random guess. This new perspective immediately enables existing powerful diffusion models to seamlessly learn the stochastic generative process. Once the generative uncertainty is modeled, we can perform classification inference using maximum likelihood estimation of labels. To mitigate the impact of noisy labels, we propose the $\textbf{L}$abel-$\textbf{R}$etrieval-$\textbf{A}$ugmented (LRA) diffusion model, which leverages neighbor consistency to effectively construct pseudo-clean labels for diffusion training. Our model is flexible and general, allowing easy incorporation of different types of conditional information, $\textit{e.g.}$, use of pre-trained models, to further boost model performance. Extensive experiments are conducted for evaluation. Our model achieves new state-of-the-art (SOTA) results on all the standard real-world benchmark datasets. Remarkably, by incorporating conditional information from the powerful CLIP model, our method can boost the current SOTA accuracy by 10-20 absolute points in many cases.

Task planning for embodied AI has been one of the most challenging problems where the community does not meet a consensus in terms of formulation. In this paper, we aim to tackle this problem with a unified framework consisting of an end-to-end trainable method and a planning algorithm. Particularly, we propose a task-agnostic method named 'planning as in-painting'. In this method, we use a Denoising Diffusion Model (DDM) for plan generation, conditioned on both language instructions and perceptual inputs under partially observable environments. Partial observation often leads to the model hallucinating the planning. Therefore, our diffusion-based method jointly models both state trajectory and goal estimation to improve the reliability of the generated plan, given the limited available information at each step. To better leverage newly discovered information along the plan execution for a higher success rate, we propose an on-the-fly planning algorithm to collaborate with the diffusion-based planner. The proposed framework achieves promising performances in various embodied AI tasks, including vision-language navigation, object manipulation, and task planning in a photorealistic virtual environment. The code is available at: https://github.com/joeyy5588/planning-as-inpainting.

Linear partial differential equations (PDEs) are an important, widely applied class of mechanistic models, describing physical processes such as heat transfer, electromagnetism, and wave propagation. In practice, specialized numerical methods based on discretization are used to solve PDEs. They generally use an estimate of the unknown model parameters and, if available, physical measurements for initialization. Such solvers are often embedded into larger scientific models with a downstream application and thus error quantification plays a key role. However, by ignoring parameter and measurement uncertainty, classical PDE solvers may fail to produce consistent estimates of their inherent approximation error. In this work, we approach this problem in a principled fashion by interpreting solving linear PDEs as physics-informed Gaussian process (GP) regression. Our framework is based on a key generalization of the Gaussian process inference theorem to observations made via an arbitrary bounded linear operator. Crucially, this probabilistic viewpoint allows to (1) quantify the inherent discretization error; (2) propagate uncertainty about the model parameters to the solution; and (3) condition on noisy measurements. Demonstrating the strength of this formulation, we prove that it strictly generalizes methods of weighted residuals, a central class of PDE solvers including collocation, finite volume, pseudospectral, and (generalized) Galerkin methods such as finite element and spectral methods. This class can thus be directly equipped with a structured error estimate. In summary, our results enable the seamless integration of mechanistic models as modular building blocks into probabilistic models by blurring the boundaries between numerical analysis and Bayesian inference.

For safe operation, a robot must be able to avoid collisions in uncertain environments. Existing approaches for motion planning under uncertainties often assume parametric obstacle representations and Gaussian uncertainty, which can be inaccurate. While visual perception can deliver a more accurate representation of the environment, its use for safe motion planning is limited by the inherent miscalibration of neural networks and the challenge of obtaining adequate datasets. To address these limitations, we propose to employ ensembles of deep semantic segmentation networks trained with massively augmented datasets to ensure reliable probabilistic occupancy information. To avoid conservatism during motion planning, we directly employ the probabilistic perception in a scenario-based path planning approach. A velocity scheduling scheme is applied to the path to ensure a safe motion despite tracking inaccuracies. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the massive data augmentation in combination with deep ensembles and the proposed scenario-based planning approach in comparisons to state-of-the-art methods and validate our framework in an experiment with a human hand as an obstacle.

We present a new algorithm to learn a deep neural network model robust against adversarial attacks. Previous algorithms demonstrate an adversarially trained Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) provides improved robustness. We recognize the adversarial learning approach for approximating the multi-modal posterior distribution of a Bayesian model can lead to mode collapse; consequently, the model's achievements in robustness and performance are sub-optimal. Instead, we first propose preventing mode collapse to better approximate the multi-modal posterior distribution. Second, based on the intuition that a robust model should ignore perturbations and only consider the informative content of the input, we conceptualize and formulate an information gain objective to measure and force the information learned from both benign and adversarial training instances to be similar. Importantly. we prove and demonstrate that minimizing the information gain objective allows the adversarial risk to approach the conventional empirical risk. We believe our efforts provide a step toward a basis for a principled method of adversarially training BNNs. Our model demonstrate significantly improved robustness--up to 20%--compared with adversarial training and Adv-BNN under PGD attacks with 0.035 distortion on both CIFAR-10 and STL-10 datasets.

The software for clustering students according to their educational achievements using fuzzy logic was developed in Python using the Google Colab cloud service. In the process of analyzing educational data, the problems of Data Mining are solved, since only some characteristics of the educational process are obtained from a large sample of data. Data clustering was performed using the classic K-Means method, which is characterized by simplicity and high speed. Cluster analysis was performed in the space of two features using the machine learning library scikit-learn (Python). The obtained clusters are described by fuzzy triangular membership functions, which allowed to correctly determine the membership of each student to a certain cluster. Creation of fuzzy membership functions is done using the scikit-fuzzy library. The development of fuzzy functions of objects belonging to clusters is also useful for educational purposes, as it allows a better understanding of the principles of using fuzzy logic. As a result of processing test educational data using the developed software, correct results were obtained. It is shown that the use of fuzzy membership functions makes it possible to correctly determine the belonging of students to certain clusters, even if such clusters are not clearly separated. Due to this, it is possible to more accurately determine the recommended level of difficulty of tasks for each student, depending on his previous evaluations.

We consider the problem of learning causal Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) using combinations of observational and interventional experimental data. Current methods tailored to this setting assume that interventions either destroy parent-child relations of the intervened (target) nodes or only alter such relations without modifying the parent sets, even when the intervention targets are unknown. We relax this assumption by proposing a Bayesian method for causal discovery from general interventions, which allow for modifications of the parent sets of the unknown targets. Even in this framework, DAGs and general interventions may be identifiable only up to some equivalence classes. We provide graphical characterizations of such interventional Markov equivalence and devise compatible priors for Bayesian inference that guarantee score equivalence of indistinguishable structures. We then develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme to approximate the posterior distribution over DAGs, intervention targets and induced parent sets. Finally, we evaluate the proposed methodology on both simulated and real protein expression data.

Accuracy and interpretability of a (non-life) insurance pricing model are essential qualities to ensure fair and transparent premiums for policy-holders, that reflect their risk. In recent years, the classification and regression trees (CARTs) and their ensembles have gained popularity in the actuarial literature, since they offer good prediction performance and are relatively easily interpretable. In this paper, we introduce Bayesian CART models for insurance pricing, with a particular focus on claims frequency modelling. Additionally to the common Poisson and negative binomial (NB) distributions used for claims frequency, we implement Bayesian CART for the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) distribution to address the difficulty arising from the imbalanced insurance claims data. To this end, we introduce a general MCMC algorithm using data augmentation methods for posterior tree exploration. We also introduce the deviance information criterion (DIC) for the tree model selection. The proposed models are able to identify trees which can better classify the policy-holders into risk groups. Some simulations and real insurance data will be discussed to illustrate the applicability of these models.

The recent COVID-19 pandemic underscores the significance of early-stage non-pharmacological intervention strategies. The widespread use of masks and the systematic implementation of contact tracing strategies provide a potentially equally effective and socially less impactful alternative to more conventional approaches, such as large-scale mobility restrictions. However, manual contact tracing faces strong limitations in accessing the network of contacts, and the scalability of currently implemented protocols for smartphone-based digital contact tracing becomes impractical during the rapid expansion phases of the outbreaks, due to the surge in exposure notifications and associated tests. A substantial improvement in digital contact tracing can be obtained through the integration of probabilistic techniques for risk assessment that can more effectively guide the allocation of new diagnostic tests. In this study, we first quantitatively analyze the diagnostic and social costs associated with these containment measures based on contact tracing, employing three state-of-the-art models of SARS-CoV-2 spreading. Our results suggest that probabilistic techniques allow for more effective mitigation at a lower cost. Secondly, our findings reveal a remarkable efficacy of probabilistic contact-tracing techniques in capturing backward propagations and super-spreading events, relevant features of the diffusion of many pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2.