Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs), renowned for their interpretability, have become increasingly vital in representing complex stochastic processes in various domains such as gene expression analysis, healthcare, and traffic prediction. Structure learning of DBNs from data is challenging, particularly for datasets with thousands of variables. Most current algorithms for DBN structure learning are adaptations from those used in static Bayesian Networks (BNs), and are typically focused on small-scale problems. In order to solve large-scale problems while taking full advantage of existing algorithms, this paper introduces a novel divide-and-conquer strategy, originally developed for static BNs, and adapts it for large-scale DBN structure learning. In this work, we specifically concentrate on 2 Time-sliced Bayesian Networks (2-TBNs), a special class of DBNs. Furthermore, we leverage the prior knowledge of 2-TBNs to enhance the performance of the strategy we introduce. Our approach significantly improves the scalability and accuracy of 2-TBN structure learning. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, showing substantial improvements over existing algorithms in both computational efficiency and structure learning accuracy. On problem instances with more than 1,000 variables, our approach improves two accuracy metrics by 74.45% and 110.94% on average , respectively, while reducing runtime by 93.65% on average.

We assume to be given structural equations over discrete variables inducing a directed acyclic graph, namely, a structural causal model, together with data about its internal nodes. The question we want to answer is how we can compute bounds for partially identifiable counterfactual queries from such an input. We start by giving a map from structural casual models to credal networks. This allows us to compute exact counterfactual bounds via algorithms for credal nets on a subclass of structural causal models. Exact computation is going to be inefficient in general given that, as we show, causal inference is NP-hard even on polytrees. We target then approximate bounds via a causal EM scheme. We evaluate their accuracy by providing credible intervals on the quality of the approximation; we show through a synthetic benchmark that the EM scheme delivers accurate results in a fair number of runs. In the course of the discussion, we also point out what seems to be a neglected limitation to the trending idea that counterfactual bounds can be computed without knowledge of the structural equations. We also present a real case study on palliative care to show how our algorithms can readily be used for practical purposes.

Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) aims to optimize policies that balance the expected reward and risk. In this paper, we present a novel risk-sensitive RL framework that employs an Iterated Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) objective under both linear and general function approximations, enriched by human feedback. These new formulations provide a principled way to guarantee safety in each decision making step throughout the control process. Moreover, integrating human feedback into risk-sensitive RL framework bridges the gap between algorithmic decision-making and human participation, allowing us to also guarantee safety for human-in-the-loop systems. We propose provably sample-efficient algorithms for this Iterated CVaR RL and provide rigorous theoretical analysis. Furthermore, we establish a matching lower bound to corroborate the optimality of our algorithms in a linear context.

Two linearly uncorrelated binary variables must be also independent because non-linear dependence cannot manifest with only two possible states. This inherent linearity is the atom of dependency constituting any complex form of relationship. Inspired by this observation, we develop a framework called binary expansion linear effect (BELIEF) for understanding arbitrary relationships with a binary outcome. Models from the BELIEF framework are easily interpretable because they describe the association of binary variables in the language of linear models, yielding convenient theoretical insight and striking Gaussian parallels. With BELIEF, one may study generalized linear models (GLM) through transparent linear models, providing insight into how the choice of link affects modeling. For example, setting a GLM interaction coefficient to zero does not necessarily lead to the kind of no-interaction model assumption as understood under their linear model counterparts. Furthermore, for a binary response, maximum likelihood estimation for GLMs paradoxically fails under complete separation, when the data are most discriminative, whereas BELIEF estimation automatically reveals the perfect predictor in the data that is responsible for complete separation. We explore these phenomena and provide related theoretical results. We also provide preliminary empirical demonstration of some theoretical results.

The ice shelves buttressing the Antarctic ice sheet determine the rate of ice-discharge into the surrounding oceans. The geometry of ice shelves, and hence their buttressing strength, is determined by ice flow as well as by the local surface accumulation and basal melt rates, governed by atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Contemporary methods resolve one of these rates, but typically not both. Moreover, there is little information of how they changed in time. We present a new method to simultaneously infer the surface accumulation and basal melt rates averaged over decadal and centennial timescales. We infer the spatial dependence of these rates along flow line transects using internal stratigraphy observed by radars, using a kinematic forward model of internal stratigraphy. We solve the inverse problem using simulation-based inference (SBI). SBI performs Bayesian inference by training neural networks on simulations of the forward model to approximate the posterior distribution, allowing us to also quantify uncertainties over the inferred parameters. We demonstrate the validity of our method on a synthetic example, and apply it to Ekstr\"om Ice Shelf, Antarctica, for which newly acquired radar measurements are available. We obtain posterior distributions of surface accumulation and basal melt averaging over 42, 84, 146, and 188 years before 2022. Our results suggest stable atmospheric and oceanographic conditions over this period in this catchment of Antarctica. Use of observed internal stratigraphy can separate the effects of surface accumulation and basal melt, allowing them to be interpreted in a historical context of the last centuries and beyond.

Decision trees have found widespread application within the machine learning community due to their flexibility and interpretability. This paper is directed towards learning decision trees from data using a Bayesian approach, which is challenging due to the potentially enormous parameter space required to span all tree models. Several approaches have been proposed to combat this challenge, with one of the more successful being Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The efficacy and efficiency of MCMC methods fundamentally rely on the quality of the so-called proposals, which is the focus of this paper. In particular, this paper investigates using a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) approach to explore the posterior of Bayesian decision trees more efficiently by exploiting the geometry of the likelihood within a global update scheme. Two implementations of the novel algorithm are developed and compared to existing methods by testing against standard datasets in the machine learning and Bayesian decision tree literature. HMC-based methods are shown to perform favourably with respect to predictive test accuracy, acceptance rate, and tree complexity.

The present study proposes incorporating non-parametric knowledge into the diffusion least-mean-squares algorithm in the framework of a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation. The proposed algorithm leads to a robust estimation of an unknown parameter vector in a group of cooperative estimators. Utilizing kernel density estimation and buffering some intermediate estimations, the prior distribution and conditional likelihood of the parameters vector in each node are calculated. Pseudo Huber loss function is used for designing the likelihood function. Also, an error thresholding function is defined to reduce the computational overhead as well as more relaxation against noise, which stops the update every time an error is less than a predefined threshold. The performance of the proposed algorithm is examined in the stationary and non-stationary scenarios in the presence of Gaussian and non-Gaussian noise. Results show the robustness of the proposed algorithm in the presence of different noise types.

We explore the idea of aligning an AI assistant by inverting a model of users' (unknown) preferences from observed interactions. To validate our proposal, we run proof-of-concept simulations in the economic ultimatum game, formalizing user preferences as policies that guide the actions of simulated players. We find that the AI assistant accurately aligns its behavior to match standard policies from the economic literature (e.g., selfish, altruistic). However, the assistant's learned policies lack robustness and exhibit limited generalization in an out-of-distribution setting when confronted with a currency (e.g., grams of medicine) that was not included in the assistant's training distribution. Additionally, we find that when there is inconsistency in the relationship between language use and an unknown policy (e.g., an altruistic policy combined with rude language), the assistant's learning of the policy is slowed. Overall, our preliminary results suggest that developing simulation frameworks in which AI assistants need to infer preferences from diverse users can provide a valuable approach for studying practical alignment questions.

In many fields of scientific research and real-world applications, unbiased estimation of causal effects from non-experimental data is crucial for understanding the mechanism underlying the data and for decision-making on effective responses or interventions. A great deal of research has been conducted to address this challenging problem from different angles. For estimating causal effect in observational data, assumptions such as Markov condition, faithfulness and causal sufficiency are always made. Under the assumptions, full knowledge such as, a set of covariates or an underlying causal graph, is typically required. A practical challenge is that in many applications, no such full knowledge or only some partial knowledge is available. In recent years, research has emerged to use search strategies based on graphical causal modelling to discover useful knowledge from data for causal effect estimation, with some mild assumptions, and has shown promise in tackling the practical challenge. In this survey, we review these data-driven methods on causal effect estimation for a single treatment with a single outcome of interest and focus on the challenges faced by data-driven causal effect estimation. We concisely summarise the basic concepts and theories that are essential for data-driven causal effect estimation using graphical causal modelling but are scattered around the literature. We identify and discuss the challenges faced by data-driven causal effect estimation and characterise the existing methods by their assumptions and the approaches to tackling the challenges. We analyse the strengths and limitations of the different types of methods and present an empirical evaluation to support the discussions. We hope this review will motivate more researchers to design better data-driven methods based on graphical causal modelling for the challenging problem of causal effect estimation.

Accurate uncertainty quantification in graph neural networks (GNNs) is essential, especially in high-stakes domains where GNNs are frequently employed. Conformal prediction (CP) offers a promising framework for quantifying uncertainty by providing $\textit{valid}$ prediction sets for any black-box model. CP ensures formal probabilistic guarantees that a prediction set contains a true label with a desired probability. However, the size of prediction sets, known as $\textit{inefficiency}$, is influenced by the underlying model and data generating process. On the other hand, Bayesian learning also provides a credible region based on the estimated posterior distribution, but this region is $\textit{well-calibrated}$ only when the model is correctly specified. Building on a recent work that introduced a scaling parameter for constructing valid credible regions from posterior estimate, our study explores the advantages of incorporating a temperature parameter into Bayesian GNNs within CP framework. We empirically demonstrate the existence of temperatures that result in more efficient prediction sets. Furthermore, we conduct an analysis to identify the factors contributing to inefficiency and offer valuable insights into the relationship between CP performance and model calibration.