Uncertainty
FedBayes: A Zero-Trust Federated Learning Aggregation to Defend Against Adversarial Attacks
Vucovich, Marc, Quinn, Devin, Choi, Kevin, Redino, Christopher, Rahman, Abdul, Bowen, Edward
Federated learning has created a decentralized method to train a machine learning model without needing direct access to client data. The main goal of a federated learning architecture is to protect the privacy of each client while still contributing to the training of the global model. However, the main advantage of privacy in federated learning is also the easiest aspect to exploit. Without being able to see the clients' data, it is difficult to determine the quality of the data. By utilizing data poisoning methods, such as backdoor or label-flipping attacks, or by sending manipulated information about their data back to the server, malicious clients are able to corrupt the global model and degrade performance across all clients within a federation. Our novel aggregation method, FedBayes, mitigates the effect of a malicious client by calculating the probabilities of a client's model weights given to the prior model's weights using Bayesian statistics. Our results show that this approach negates the effects of malicious clients and protects the overall federation.
PartSLIP++: Enhancing Low-Shot 3D Part Segmentation via Multi-View Instance Segmentation and Maximum Likelihood Estimation
Zhou, Yuchen, Gu, Jiayuan, Li, Xuanlin, Liu, Minghua, Fang, Yunhao, Su, Hao
Open-world 3D part segmentation is pivotal in diverse applications such as robotics and AR/VR. Traditional supervised methods often grapple with limited 3D data availability and struggle to generalize to unseen object categories. PartSLIP, a recent advancement, has made significant strides in zero- and few-shot 3D part segmentation. This is achieved by harnessing the capabilities of the 2D open-vocabulary detection module, GLIP, and introducing a heuristic method for converting and lifting multi-view 2D bounding box predictions into 3D segmentation masks. In this paper, we introduce PartSLIP++, an enhanced version designed to overcome the limitations of its predecessor. Our approach incorporates two major improvements. First, we utilize a pre-trained 2D segmentation model, SAM, to produce pixel-wise 2D segmentations, yielding more precise and accurate annotations than the 2D bounding boxes used in PartSLIP. Second, PartSLIP++ replaces the heuristic 3D conversion process with an innovative modified Expectation-Maximization algorithm. This algorithm conceptualizes 3D instance segmentation as unobserved latent variables, and then iteratively refines them through an alternating process of 2D-3D matching and optimization with gradient descent. Through extensive evaluations, we show that PartSLIP++ demonstrates better performance over PartSLIP in both low-shot 3D semantic and instance-based object part segmentation tasks. Code released at https://github.com/zyc00/PartSLIP2.
ResEnsemble-DDPM: Residual Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models for Ensemble Learning
Zhenning, Shi, Changsheng, Dong, Xueshuo, Xie, Bin, Pan, Along, He, Tao, Li
Nowadays, denoising diffusion probabilistic models have been adapted for many image segmentation tasks. However, existing end-to-end models have already demonstrated remarkable capabilities. Rather than using denoising diffusion probabilistic models alone, integrating the abilities of both denoising diffusion probabilistic models and existing end-to-end models can better improve the performance of image segmentation. Based on this, we implicitly introduce residual term into the diffusion process and propose ResEnsemble-DDPM, which seamlessly integrates the diffusion model and the end-to-end model through ensemble learning. The output distributions of these two models are strictly symmetric with respect to the ground truth distribution, allowing us to integrate the two models by reducing the residual term. Experimental results demonstrate that our ResEnsemble-DDPM can further improve the capabilities of existing models. Furthermore, its ensemble learning strategy can be generalized to other downstream tasks in image generation and get strong competitiveness.
Learning Energy-based Model via Dual-MCMC Teaching
This paper studies the fundamental learning problem of the energy-based model (EBM). Learning the EBM can be achieved using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), which typically involves the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, such as the Langevin dynamics. However, the noise-initialized Langevin dynamics can be challenging in practice and hard to mix. This motivates the exploration of joint training with the generator model where the generator model serves as a complementary model to bypass MCMC sampling. However, such a method can be less accurate than the MCMC and result in biased EBM learning. While the generator can also serve as an initializer model for better MCMC sampling, its learning can be biased since it only matches the EBM and has no access to empirical training examples. Such biased generator learning may limit the potential of learning the EBM. To address this issue, we present a joint learning framework that interweaves the maximum likelihood learning algorithm for both the EBM and the complementary generator model. In particular, the generator model is learned by MLE to match both the EBM and the empirical data distribution, making it a more informative initializer for MCMC sampling of EBM. Learning generator with observed examples typically requires inference of the generator posterior. To ensure accurate and efficient inference, we adopt the MCMC posterior sampling and introduce a complementary inference model to initialize such latent MCMC sampling. We show that three separate models can be seamlessly integrated into our joint framework through two (dual-) MCMC teaching, enabling effective and efficient EBM learning.
Learning-Based Approaches to Predictive Monitoring with Conformal Statistical Guarantees
Cairoli, Francesca, Bortolussi, Luca, Paoletti, Nicola
This tutorial focuses on efficient methods to predictive monitoring (PM), the problem of detecting at runtime future violations of a given requirement from the current state of a system. While performing model checking at runtime would offer a precise solution to the PM problem, it is generally computationally expensive. To address this scalability issue, several lightweight approaches based on machine learning have recently been proposed. These approaches work by learning an approximate yet efficient surrogate (deep learning) model of the expensive model checker. A key challenge remains to ensure reliable predictions, especially in safety-critical applications. We review our recent work on predictive monitoring, one of the first to propose learning-based approximations for CPS verification of temporal logic specifications and the first in this context to apply conformal prediction (CP) for rigorous uncertainty quantification. These CP-based uncertainty estimators offer statistical guarantees regarding the generalization error of the learning model, and they can be used to determine unreliable predictions that should be rejected. In this tutorial, we present a general and comprehensive framework summarizing our approach to the predictive monitoring of CPSs, examining in detail several variants determined by three main dimensions: system dynamics (deterministic, non-deterministic, stochastic), state observability, and semantics of requirements' satisfaction (Boolean or quantitative).
Divide-and-Conquer Strategy for Large-Scale Dynamic Bayesian Network Structure Learning
Ouyang, Hui, Chen, Cheng, Tang, Ke
Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs), renowned for their interpretability, have become increasingly vital in representing complex stochastic processes in various domains such as gene expression analysis, healthcare, and traffic prediction. Structure learning of DBNs from data is challenging, particularly for datasets with thousands of variables. Most current algorithms for DBN structure learning are adaptations from those used in static Bayesian Networks (BNs), and are typically focused on small-scale problems. In order to solve large-scale problems while taking full advantage of existing algorithms, this paper introduces a novel divide-and-conquer strategy, originally developed for static BNs, and adapts it for large-scale DBN structure learning. In this work, we specifically concentrate on 2 Time-sliced Bayesian Networks (2-TBNs), a special class of DBNs. Furthermore, we leverage the prior knowledge of 2-TBNs to enhance the performance of the strategy we introduce. Our approach significantly improves the scalability and accuracy of 2-TBN structure learning. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, showing substantial improvements over existing algorithms in both computational efficiency and structure learning accuracy. On problem instances with more than 1,000 variables, our approach improves two accuracy metrics by 74.45% and 110.94% on average , respectively, while reducing runtime by 93.65% on average.
Efficient Computation of Counterfactual Bounds
Zaffalon, Marco, Antonucci, Alessandro, Cabañas, Rafael, Huber, David, Azzimonti, Dario
We assume to be given structural equations over discrete variables inducing a directed acyclic graph, namely, a structural causal model, together with data about its internal nodes. The question we want to answer is how we can compute bounds for partially identifiable counterfactual queries from such an input. We start by giving a map from structural casual models to credal networks. This allows us to compute exact counterfactual bounds via algorithms for credal nets on a subclass of structural causal models. Exact computation is going to be inefficient in general given that, as we show, causal inference is NP-hard even on polytrees. We target then approximate bounds via a causal EM scheme. We evaluate their accuracy by providing credible intervals on the quality of the approximation; we show through a synthetic benchmark that the EM scheme delivers accurate results in a fair number of runs. In the course of the discussion, we also point out what seems to be a neglected limitation to the trending idea that counterfactual bounds can be computed without knowledge of the structural equations. We also present a real case study on palliative care to show how our algorithms can readily be used for practical purposes.
Provably Efficient Iterated CVaR Reinforcement Learning with Function Approximation and Human Feedback
Chen, Yu, Du, Yihan, Hu, Pihe, Wang, Siwei, Wu, Desheng, Huang, Longbo
Risk-sensitive reinforcement learning (RL) aims to optimize policies that balance the expected reward and risk. In this paper, we present a novel risk-sensitive RL framework that employs an Iterated Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) objective under both linear and general function approximations, enriched by human feedback. These new formulations provide a principled way to guarantee safety in each decision making step throughout the control process. Moreover, integrating human feedback into risk-sensitive RL framework bridges the gap between algorithmic decision-making and human participation, allowing us to also guarantee safety for human-in-the-loop systems. We propose provably sample-efficient algorithms for this Iterated CVaR RL and provide rigorous theoretical analysis. Furthermore, we establish a matching lower bound to corroborate the optimality of our algorithms in a linear context.
BELIEF in Dependence: Leveraging Atomic Linearity in Data Bits for Rethinking Generalized Linear Models
Brown, Benjamin, Zhang, Kai, Meng, Xiao-Li
Two linearly uncorrelated binary variables must be also independent because non-linear dependence cannot manifest with only two possible states. This inherent linearity is the atom of dependency constituting any complex form of relationship. Inspired by this observation, we develop a framework called binary expansion linear effect (BELIEF) for understanding arbitrary relationships with a binary outcome. Models from the BELIEF framework are easily interpretable because they describe the association of binary variables in the language of linear models, yielding convenient theoretical insight and striking Gaussian parallels. With BELIEF, one may study generalized linear models (GLM) through transparent linear models, providing insight into how the choice of link affects modeling. For example, setting a GLM interaction coefficient to zero does not necessarily lead to the kind of no-interaction model assumption as understood under their linear model counterparts. Furthermore, for a binary response, maximum likelihood estimation for GLMs paradoxically fails under complete separation, when the data are most discriminative, whereas BELIEF estimation automatically reveals the perfect predictor in the data that is responsible for complete separation. We explore these phenomena and provide related theoretical results. We also provide preliminary empirical demonstration of some theoretical results.
Simulation-Based Inference of Surface Accumulation and Basal Melt Rates of an Antarctic Ice Shelf from Isochronal Layers
Moss, Guy, Višnjević, Vjeran, Eisen, Olaf, Oraschewski, Falk M., Schröder, Cornelius, Macke, Jakob H., Drews, Reinhard
The ice shelves buttressing the Antarctic ice sheet determine the rate of ice-discharge into the surrounding oceans. The geometry of ice shelves, and hence their buttressing strength, is determined by ice flow as well as by the local surface accumulation and basal melt rates, governed by atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Contemporary methods resolve one of these rates, but typically not both. Moreover, there is little information of how they changed in time. We present a new method to simultaneously infer the surface accumulation and basal melt rates averaged over decadal and centennial timescales. We infer the spatial dependence of these rates along flow line transects using internal stratigraphy observed by radars, using a kinematic forward model of internal stratigraphy. We solve the inverse problem using simulation-based inference (SBI). SBI performs Bayesian inference by training neural networks on simulations of the forward model to approximate the posterior distribution, allowing us to also quantify uncertainties over the inferred parameters. We demonstrate the validity of our method on a synthetic example, and apply it to Ekstr\"om Ice Shelf, Antarctica, for which newly acquired radar measurements are available. We obtain posterior distributions of surface accumulation and basal melt averaging over 42, 84, 146, and 188 years before 2022. Our results suggest stable atmospheric and oceanographic conditions over this period in this catchment of Antarctica. Use of observed internal stratigraphy can separate the effects of surface accumulation and basal melt, allowing them to be interpreted in a historical context of the last centuries and beyond.