Probabilistic solvers provide a flexible and efficient framework for simulation, uncertainty quantification, and inference in dynamical systems. However, like standard solvers, they suffer performance penalties for certain stiff systems, where small steps are required not for reasons of numerical accuracy but for the sake of stability. This issue is greatly alleviated in semi-linear problems by the probabilistic exponential integrators developed in this paper. By including the fast, linear dynamics in the prior, we arrive at a class of probabilistic integrators with favorable properties. Namely, they are proven to be L-stable, and in a certain case reduce to a classic exponential integrator -- with the added benefit of providing a probabilistic account of the numerical error. The method is also generalized to arbitrary non-linear systems by imposing piece-wise semi-linearity on the prior via Jacobians of the vector field at the previous estimates, resulting in probabilistic exponential Rosenbrock methods. We evaluate the proposed methods on multiple stiff differential equations and demonstrate their improved stability and efficiency over established probabilistic solvers. The present contribution thus expands the range of problems that can be effectively tackled within probabilistic numerics.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization has long been a challenging problem that remains largely unsolved. Gaussian processes (GP), as popular probabilistic model classes, especially in the small data regime, presume strong OOD generalization abilities. Surprisingly, their OOD generalization abilities have been under-explored before compared with other lines of GP research. In this paper, we identify that GP is not free from the problem and propose a domain invariant learning algorithm for Gaussian processes (DIL-GP) with a min-max optimization on the likelihood. DIL-GP discovers the heterogeneity in the data and forces invariance across partitioned subsets of data. We further extend the DIL-GP to improve Bayesian optimization's adaptability on changing environments. Numerical experiments demonstrate the superiority of DIL-GP for predictions on several synthetic and real-world datasets. We further demonstrate the effectiveness of the DIL-GP Bayesian optimization method on a PID parameters tuning experiment for a quadrotor. The full version and source code are available at: https://github.com/Billzxl/DIL-GP.

Decision-makers often observe the occurrence of events through a reporting process. City governments, for example, rely on resident reports to find and then resolve urban infrastructural problems such as fallen street trees, flooded basements, or rat infestations. Without additional assumptions, there is no way to distinguish events that occur but are not reported from events that truly did not occur--a fundamental problem in settings with positive-unlabeled data. Because disparities in reporting rates correlate with resident demographics, addressing incidents only on the basis of reports leads to systematic neglect in neighborhoods that are less likely to report events. We show how to overcome this challenge by leveraging the fact that events are spatially correlated. Our framework uses a Bayesian spatial latent variable model to infer event occurrence probabilities and applies it to storm-induced flooding reports in New York City, further pooling results across multiple storms. We show that a model accounting for under-reporting and spatial correlation predicts future reports more accurately than other models, and further induces a more equitable set of inspections: its allocations better reflect the population and provide equitable service to non-white, less traditionally educated, and lower-income residents. This finding reflects heterogeneous reporting behavior learned by the model: reporting rates are higher in Census tracts with higher populations, proportions of white residents, and proportions of owner-occupied households. Our work lays the groundwork for more equitable proactive government services, even with disparate reporting behavior.

Causal Structure Learning (CSL), amounting to extracting causal relations among the variables in a dataset, is widely perceived as an important step towards robust and transparent models. Constraint-based CSL leverages conditional independence tests to perform causal discovery. We propose Shapley-PC, a novel method to improve constraint-based CSL algorithms by using Shapley values over the possible conditioning sets to decide which variables are responsible for the observed conditional (in)dependences. We prove soundness and asymptotic consistency and demonstrate that it can outperform state-of-the-art constraint-based, search-based and functional causal model-based methods, according to standard metrics in CSL.

This paper addresses the problem of maintaining safety during training in Reinforcement Learning (RL), such that the safety constraint violations are bounded at any point during learning. In a variety of RL applications the safety of the agent is particularly important, e.g. autonomous platforms or robots that work in proximity of humans. As enforcing safety during training might severely limit the agent's exploration, we propose here a new architecture that handles the trade-off between efficient progress and safety during exploration. As the exploration progresses, we update via Bayesian inference Dirichlet-Categorical models of the transition probabilities of the Markov decision process that describes the environment dynamics. This paper proposes a way to approximate moments of belief about the risk associated to the action selection policy. We construct those approximations, and prove the convergence results. We propose a novel method for leveraging the expectation approximations to derive an approximate bound on the confidence that the risk is below a certain level. This approach can be easily interleaved with RL and we present experimental results to showcase the performance of the overall architecture.

The extension of traditional data mining methods to time series has been effectively applied to a wide range of domains such as finance, econometrics, biology, security, and medicine. Many existing mining methods deal with the task of change points detection, but very few provide a flexible approach. Querying specific change points with linguistic variables is particularly useful in crime analysis, where intuitive, understandable, and appropriate detection of changes can significantly improve the allocation of resources for timely and concise operations. In this paper, we propose an on-line method for detecting and querying change points in crime-related time series with the use of a meaningful representation and a fuzzy inference system. Change points detection is based on a shape space representation, and linguistic terms describing geometric properties of the change points are used to express queries, offering the advantage of intuitiveness and flexibility. An empirical evaluation is first conducted on a crime data set to confirm the validity of the proposed method and then on a financial data set to test its general applicability. A comparison to a similar change-point detection algorithm and a sensitivity analysis are also conducted. Results show that the method is able to accurately detect change points at very low computational costs. More broadly, the detection of specific change points within time series of virtually any domain is made more intuitive and more understandable, even for experts not related to data mining.

Most existing causal discovery methods rely on the assumption of no latent confounders, limiting their applicability in solving real-life problems. In this paper, we introduce a novel, versatile framework for causal discovery that accommodates the presence of causally-related hidden variables almost everywhere in the causal network (for instance, they can be effects of observed variables), based on rank information of covariance matrix over observed variables. We start by investigating the efficacy of rank in comparison to conditional independence and, theoretically, establish necessary and sufficient conditions for the identifiability of certain latent structural patterns. Furthermore, we develop a Rank-based Latent Causal Discovery algorithm, RLCD, that can efficiently locate hidden variables, determine their cardinalities, and discover the entire causal structure over both measured and hidden ones. We also show that, under certain graphical conditions, RLCD correctly identifies the Markov Equivalence Class of the whole latent causal graph asymptotically. Experimental results on both synthetic and real-world personality data sets demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach in finite-sample cases.

Enumerating the directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) of a Markov equivalence class (MEC) is an important primitive in causal analysis. The central resource from the perspective of computational complexity is the delay, that is, the time an algorithm that lists all members of the class requires between two consecutive outputs. Commonly used algorithms for this task utilize the rules proposed by Meek (1995) or the transformational characterization by Chickering (1995), both resulting in superlinear delay. In this paper, we present the first linear-time delay algorithm. On the theoretical side, we show that our algorithm can be generalized to enumerate DAGs represented by models that incorporate background knowledge, such as MPDAGs; on the practical side, we provide an efficient implementation and evaluate it in a series of experiments. Complementary to the linear-time delay algorithm, we also provide intriguing insights into Markov equivalence itself: All members of an MEC can be enumerated such that two successive DAGs have structural Hamming distance at most three.

Bayesian analysis has become an indispensable tool across many different cosmological fields including the study of gravitational waves, the Cosmic Microwave Background and the 21-cm signal from the Cosmic Dawn among other phenomena. The method provides a way to fit complex models to data describing key cosmological and astrophysical signals and a whole host of contaminating signals and instrumental effects modelled with `nuisance parameters'. In this paper, we summarise a method that uses Masked Autoregressive Flows and Kernel Density Estimators to learn marginal posterior densities corresponding to core science parameters. We find that the marginal or 'nuisance-free' posteriors and the associated likelihoods have an abundance of applications including; the calculation of previously intractable marginal Kullback-Leibler divergences and marginal Bayesian Model Dimensionalities, likelihood emulation and prior emulation. We demonstrate each application using toy examples, examples from the field of 21-cm cosmology and samples from the Dark Energy Survey. We discuss how marginal summary statistics like the Kullback-Leibler divergences and Bayesian Model Dimensionalities can be used to examine the constraining power of different experiments and how we can perform efficient joint analysis by taking advantage of marginal prior and likelihood emulators. We package our multipurpose code up in the pip-installable code margarine for use in the wider scientific community.

Identifying root causes of anomalies in causal processes is vital across disciplines. Once identified, one can isolate the root causes and implement necessary measures to restore the normal operation. Causal processes are often modelled as graphs with entities being nodes and their paths/interconnections as edge. Existing work only consider the contribution of nodes in the generative process, thus can not attribute the outlier score to the edges of the mechanism if the anomaly occurs in the connections. In this paper, we consider both individual edge and node of each mechanism when identifying the root causes. We introduce a noisy functional causal model to account for this purpose. Then, we employ Bayesian learning and inference methods to infer the noises of the nodes and edges. We then represent the functional form of a target outlier leaf as a function of the node and edge noises. Finally, we propose an efficient gradient-based attribution method to compute the anomaly attribution scores which scales linearly with the number of nodes and edges. Experiments on simulated datasets and two real-world scenario datasets show better anomaly attribution performance of the proposed method compared to the baselines. Our method scales to larger graphs with more nodes and edges.