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 Bayesian Inference


Representational dissimilarity metric spaces for stochastic neural networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Quantifying similarity between neural representations -- e.g. hidden layer activation vectors -- is a perennial problem in deep learning and neuroscience research. Existing methods compare deterministic responses (e.g. artificial networks that lack stochastic layers) or averaged responses (e.g., trial-averaged firing rates in biological data). However, these measures of _deterministic_ representational similarity ignore the scale and geometric structure of noise, both of which play important roles in neural computation. To rectify this, we generalize previously proposed shape metrics (Williams et al. 2021) to quantify differences in _stochastic_ representations. These new distances satisfy the triangle inequality, and thus can be used as a rigorous basis for many supervised and unsupervised analyses. Leveraging this novel framework, we find that the stochastic geometries of neurobiological representations of oriented visual gratings and naturalistic scenes respectively resemble untrained and trained deep network representations. Further, we are able to more accurately predict certain network attributes (e.g. training hyperparameters) from its position in stochastic (versus deterministic) shape space.


Aligning Robot and Human Representations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

To act in the world, robots rely on a representation of salient task aspects: for example, to carry a cup of coffee, a robot must consider movement efficiency and cup orientation in its behaviour. However, if we want robots to act for and with people, their representations must not be just functional but also reflective of what humans care about, i.e. their representations must be aligned with humans'. In this survey, we pose that current reward and imitation learning approaches suffer from representation misalignment, where the robot's learned representation does not capture the human's representation. We suggest that because humans will be the ultimate evaluator of robot performance in the world, it is critical that we explicitly focus our efforts on aligning learned task representations with humans, in addition to learning the downstream task. We advocate that current representation learning approaches in robotics should be studied from the perspective of how well they accomplish the objective of representation alignment. To do so, we mathematically define the problem, identify its key desiderata, and situate current robot learning methods within this formalism. We conclude the survey by suggesting future directions for exploring open challenges.


Causal Confirmation Measures: From Simpson's Paradox to COVID-19

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

When we compare the influences of two causes on an outcome, if the conclusion from every group is against that from the conflation, we think there is Simpson's Paradox. The Existing Causal Inference Theory (ECIT) can make the overall conclusion consistent with the grouping conclusion by removing the confounder's influence to eliminate the paradox. The ECIT uses relative risk difference Pd = max(0, (R - 1)/R) (R denotes the risk ratio) as the probability of causation. In contrast, Philosopher Fitelson uses confirmation measure D (posterior probability minus prior probability) to measure the strength of causation. Fitelson concludes that from the perspective of Bayesian confirmation, we should directly accept the overall conclusion without considering the paradox. The author proposed a Bayesian confirmation measure b* similar to Pd before. To overcome the contradiction between the ECIT and Bayesian confirmation, the author uses the semantic information method with the minimum cross-entropy criterion to deduce causal confirmation measure Cc = (R -1)/max(R, 1). Cc is like Pd but has normalizing property (between -1 and 1) and cause symmetry. It especially fits cases where a cause restrains an outcome, such as the COVID-19 vaccine controlling the infection. Some examples (about kidney stone treatments and COVID-19) reveal that Pd and Cc are more reasonable than D; Cc is more useful than Pd.


Optimality of Thompson Sampling with Noninformative Priors for Pareto Bandits

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, a randomized probability matching policy called Thompson sampling (TS) has shown excellent performance in various reward models. In addition to the empirical performance, TS has been shown to achieve asymptotic problem-dependent lower bounds in several models. However, its optimality has been mainly addressed under light-tailed or one-parameter models that belong to exponential families. In this paper, we consider the optimality of TS for the Pareto model that has a heavy tail and is parameterized by two unknown parameters. Specifically, we discuss the optimality of TS with probability matching priors that include the Jeffreys prior and the reference priors. We first prove that TS with certain probability matching priors can achieve the optimal regret bound. Then, we show the suboptimality of TS with other priors, including the Jeffreys and the reference priors. Nevertheless, we find that TS with the Jeffreys and reference priors can achieve the asymptotic lower bound if one uses a truncation procedure. These results suggest carefully choosing noninformative priors to avoid suboptimality and show the effectiveness of truncation procedures in TS-based policies.


The Fewer Splits are Better: Deconstructing Readability in Sentence Splitting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this work, we focus on sentence splitting, a subfield of text simplification, motivated largely by an unproven idea that if you divide a sentence in pieces, it should become easier to understand. Our primary goal in this paper is to find out whether this is true. In particular, we ask, does it matter whether we break a sentence into two or three? We report on our findings based on Amazon Mechanical Turk. More specifically, we introduce a Bayesian modeling framework to further investigate to what degree a particular way of splitting the complex sentence affects readability, along with a number of other parameters adopted from diverse perspectives, including clinical linguistics, and cognitive linguistics. The Bayesian modeling experiment provides clear evidence that bisecting the sentence leads to enhanced readability to a degree greater than what we create by trisection.


Bayesian Inference on Binary Spiking Networks Leveraging Nanoscale Device Stochasticity

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) can overcome the problem of overconfidence that plagues traditional frequentist deep neural networks, and are hence considered to be a key enabler for reliable AI systems. In this paper, we introduce a novel Phase Change Memory (PCM)-based hardware implementation for BNNs with binary synapses. The proposed architecture consists of separate weight and noise planes, in which PCM cells are configured (b) Proposed hardware architecture consisting of a N M crossbar and operated to represent the nominal values of weights and of differential PCM (DPCM) cells, referred to as the weight to generate the required noise for sampling, respectively. We choose L < M and reuse hardware accuracy and expected calibration error matching that the conductance values from the L rows in the noise plane stored of an 8-bit fixed-point (FxP8) implementation, with projected in a register through stochastic arbitration (SA), in order to reduce savings of over 9 in terms of core area transistor count. Non-volatile memory (NVM) devices such as Resistive RAM (RRAM), Phase Change Memory (PCM) and Spin-Modern neural networks tend to produce overconfident decisions, Transfer Torque RAM (STTRAM) are being explored for misrepresenting the inherent epistemic uncertainty that the implementation of in-memory computing (IMC) architectures arises from access to limited data [1].


Uncertainty in Fairness Assessment: Maintaining Stable Conclusions Despite Fluctuations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the current adoption of machine learning (ML) systems in social, economic, and industrial domains, concerns about the fairness of automated decisions have been added to the problem of ensuring the efficiency of algorithms in a stable and interpretative manner. Although both aspects are measured in terms of performance metrics, fairness entails the additional challenge of incorporating sensitive information in the data and new procedures need to be considered to control the stability of such outcomes. Recent ML trends are increasingly encouraging researchers to incorporate uncertainty into the evaluation of algorithm-based systems. In order to increase the transparency of algorithmic performance measures, typically for comparison purposes, some authors [3, 19] propose to treat these metrics as random variables whose posterior distributions are updated through Bayesian inference. In the fair learning setting, these kinds of considerations are also necessary, especially since fairness metrics have been proved unstable with respect to dataset composition. In particular, Ji et al. [17] or Friedler et al. [12] showed how certain fairness metrics strongly vary, respectively, in hold-out


Online Re-Planning and Adaptive Parameter Update for Multi-Agent Path Finding with Stochastic Travel Times

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study explores the problem of Multi-Agent Path Finding with continuous and stochastic travel times whose probability distribution is unknown. Our purpose is to manage a group of automated robots that provide package delivery services in a building where pedestrians and a wide variety of robots coexist, such as delivery services in office buildings, hospitals, and apartments. It is often the case with these real-world applications that the time required for the robots to traverse a corridor takes a continuous value and is randomly distributed, and the prior knowledge of the probability distribution of the travel time is limited. Multi-Agent Path Finding has been widely studied and applied to robot management systems; however, automating the robot operation in such environments remains difficult. We propose 1) online re-planning to update the action plan of robots while it is executed, and 2) parameter update to estimate the probability distribution of travel time using Bayesian inference as the delay is observed. We use a greedy heuristic to obtain solutions in a limited computation time. Through simulations, we empirically compare the performance of our method to those of existing methods in terms of the conflict probability and the actual travel time of robots. The simulation results indicate that the proposed method can find travel paths with at least 50% fewer conflicts and a shorter actual total travel time than existing methods. The proposed method requires a small number of trials to achieve the performance because the parameter update is prioritized on the important edges for path planning, thereby satisfying the requirements of quick implementation of robust planning of automated delivery services.


The YODO algorithm: An efficient computational framework for sensitivity analysis in Bayesian networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Sensitivity analysis measures the influence of a Bayesian network's parameters on a quantity of interest defined by the network, such as the probability of a variable taking a specific value. Various sensitivity measures have been defined to quantify such influence, most commonly some function of the quantity of interest's partial derivative with respect to the network's conditional probabilities. However, computing these measures in large networks with thousands of parameters can become computationally very expensive. We propose an algorithm combining automatic differentiation and exact inference to efficiently calculate the sensitivity measures in a single pass. It first marginalizes the whole network once, using e.g. variable elimination, and then backpropagates this operation to obtain the gradient with respect to all input parameters. Our method can be used for one-way and multi-way sensitivity analysis and the derivation of admissible regions. Simulation studies highlight the efficiency of our algorithm by scaling it to massive networks with up to 100'000 parameters and investigate the feasibility of generic multi-way analyses. Our routines are also showcased over two medium-sized Bayesian networks: the first modeling the country-risks of a humanitarian crisis, the second studying the relationship between the use of technology and the psychological effects of forced social isolation during the COVID-19 pandemic. An implementation of the methods using the popular machine learning library PyTorch is freely available.


Active Sequential Two-Sample Testing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Two-sample testing tests whether the distributions generating two samples are identical. We pose the two-sample testing problem in a new scenario where the sample measurements (or sample features) are inexpensive to access, but their group memberships (or labels) are costly. We devise the first \emph{active sequential two-sample testing framework} that not only sequentially but also \emph{actively queries} sample labels to address the problem. Our test statistic is a likelihood ratio where one likelihood is found by maximization over all class priors, and the other is given by a classification model. The classification model is adaptively updated and then used to guide an active query scheme called bimodal query to label sample features in the regions with high dependency between the feature variables and the label variables. The theoretical contributions in the paper include proof that our framework produces an \emph{anytime-valid} $p$-value; and, under reachable conditions and a mild assumption, the framework asymptotically generates a minimum normalized log-likelihood ratio statistic that a passive query scheme can only achieve when the feature variable and the label variable have the highest dependence. Lastly, we provide a \emph{query-switching (QS)} algorithm to decide when to switch from passive query to active query and adapt bimodal query to increase the testing power of our test. Extensive experiments justify our theoretical contributions and the effectiveness of QS.