Bayesian Inference
Bayesian Metric Learning for Uncertainty Quantification in Image Retrieval
Warburg, Frederik, Miani, Marco, Brack, Silas, Hauberg, Soren
We propose the first Bayesian encoder for metric learning. Rather than relying on neural amortization as done in prior works, we learn a distribution over the network weights with the Laplace Approximation. We actualize this by first proving that the contrastive loss is a valid log-posterior. We then propose three methods that ensure a positive definite Hessian. Lastly, we present a novel decomposition of the Generalized Gauss-Newton approximation. Empirically, we show that our Laplacian Metric Learner (LAM) estimates well-calibrated uncertainties, reliably detects out-of-distribution examples, and yields state-of-the-art predictive performance.
The Construction of Reality in an AI: A Review
AI constructivism as inspired by Jean Piaget, described and surveyed by Frank Guerin, and representatively implemented by Gary Drescher seeks to create algorithms and knowledge structures that enable agents to acquire, maintain, and apply a deep understanding of the environment through sensorimotor interactions. This paper aims to increase awareness of constructivist AI implementations to encourage greater progress toward enabling lifelong learning by machines. It builds on Guerin's 2008 "Learning Like a Baby: A Survey of AI approaches." After briefly recapitulating that survey, it summarizes subsequent progress by the Guerin referents, numerous works not covered by Guerin (or found in other surveys), and relevant efforts in related areas. The focus is on knowledge representations and learning algorithms that have been used in practice viewed through lenses of Piaget's schemas, adaptation processes, and staged development. The paper concludes with a preview of a simple framework for constructive AI being developed by the author that parses concepts from sensory input and stores them in a semantic memory network linked to episodic data.
Representational dissimilarity metric spaces for stochastic neural networks
Duong, Lyndon R., Zhou, Jingyang, Nassar, Josue, Berman, Jules, Olieslagers, Jeroen, Williams, Alex H.
Quantifying similarity between neural representations -- e.g. hidden layer activation vectors -- is a perennial problem in deep learning and neuroscience research. Existing methods compare deterministic responses (e.g. artificial networks that lack stochastic layers) or averaged responses (e.g., trial-averaged firing rates in biological data). However, these measures of _deterministic_ representational similarity ignore the scale and geometric structure of noise, both of which play important roles in neural computation. To rectify this, we generalize previously proposed shape metrics (Williams et al. 2021) to quantify differences in _stochastic_ representations. These new distances satisfy the triangle inequality, and thus can be used as a rigorous basis for many supervised and unsupervised analyses. Leveraging this novel framework, we find that the stochastic geometries of neurobiological representations of oriented visual gratings and naturalistic scenes respectively resemble untrained and trained deep network representations. Further, we are able to more accurately predict certain network attributes (e.g. training hyperparameters) from its position in stochastic (versus deterministic) shape space.
Aligning Robot and Human Representations
Bobu, Andreea, Peng, Andi, Agrawal, Pulkit, Shah, Julie, Dragan, Anca D.
To act in the world, robots rely on a representation of salient task aspects: for example, to carry a cup of coffee, a robot must consider movement efficiency and cup orientation in its behaviour. However, if we want robots to act for and with people, their representations must not be just functional but also reflective of what humans care about, i.e. their representations must be aligned with humans'. In this survey, we pose that current reward and imitation learning approaches suffer from representation misalignment, where the robot's learned representation does not capture the human's representation. We suggest that because humans will be the ultimate evaluator of robot performance in the world, it is critical that we explicitly focus our efforts on aligning learned task representations with humans, in addition to learning the downstream task. We advocate that current representation learning approaches in robotics should be studied from the perspective of how well they accomplish the objective of representation alignment. To do so, we mathematically define the problem, identify its key desiderata, and situate current robot learning methods within this formalism. We conclude the survey by suggesting future directions for exploring open challenges.
Causal Confirmation Measures: From Simpson's Paradox to COVID-19
When we compare the influences of two causes on an outcome, if the conclusion from every group is against that from the conflation, we think there is Simpson's Paradox. The Existing Causal Inference Theory (ECIT) can make the overall conclusion consistent with the grouping conclusion by removing the confounder's influence to eliminate the paradox. The ECIT uses relative risk difference Pd = max(0, (R - 1)/R) (R denotes the risk ratio) as the probability of causation. In contrast, Philosopher Fitelson uses confirmation measure D (posterior probability minus prior probability) to measure the strength of causation. Fitelson concludes that from the perspective of Bayesian confirmation, we should directly accept the overall conclusion without considering the paradox. The author proposed a Bayesian confirmation measure b* similar to Pd before. To overcome the contradiction between the ECIT and Bayesian confirmation, the author uses the semantic information method with the minimum cross-entropy criterion to deduce causal confirmation measure Cc = (R -1)/max(R, 1). Cc is like Pd but has normalizing property (between -1 and 1) and cause symmetry. It especially fits cases where a cause restrains an outcome, such as the COVID-19 vaccine controlling the infection. Some examples (about kidney stone treatments and COVID-19) reveal that Pd and Cc are more reasonable than D; Cc is more useful than Pd.
Optimality of Thompson Sampling with Noninformative Priors for Pareto Bandits
Lee, Jongyeong, Honda, Junya, Chiang, Chao-Kai, Sugiyama, Masashi
In the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, a randomized probability matching policy called Thompson sampling (TS) has shown excellent performance in various reward models. In addition to the empirical performance, TS has been shown to achieve asymptotic problem-dependent lower bounds in several models. However, its optimality has been mainly addressed under light-tailed or one-parameter models that belong to exponential families. In this paper, we consider the optimality of TS for the Pareto model that has a heavy tail and is parameterized by two unknown parameters. Specifically, we discuss the optimality of TS with probability matching priors that include the Jeffreys prior and the reference priors. We first prove that TS with certain probability matching priors can achieve the optimal regret bound. Then, we show the suboptimality of TS with other priors, including the Jeffreys and the reference priors. Nevertheless, we find that TS with the Jeffreys and reference priors can achieve the asymptotic lower bound if one uses a truncation procedure. These results suggest carefully choosing noninformative priors to avoid suboptimality and show the effectiveness of truncation procedures in TS-based policies.
The Fewer Splits are Better: Deconstructing Readability in Sentence Splitting
In this work, we focus on sentence splitting, a subfield of text simplification, motivated largely by an unproven idea that if you divide a sentence in pieces, it should become easier to understand. Our primary goal in this paper is to find out whether this is true. In particular, we ask, does it matter whether we break a sentence into two or three? We report on our findings based on Amazon Mechanical Turk. More specifically, we introduce a Bayesian modeling framework to further investigate to what degree a particular way of splitting the complex sentence affects readability, along with a number of other parameters adopted from diverse perspectives, including clinical linguistics, and cognitive linguistics. The Bayesian modeling experiment provides clear evidence that bisecting the sentence leads to enhanced readability to a degree greater than what we create by trisection.
Bayesian Inference on Binary Spiking Networks Leveraging Nanoscale Device Stochasticity
Katti, Prabodh, Skatchkovsky, Nicolas, Simeone, Osvaldo, Rajendran, Bipin, Al-Hashimi, Bashir M.
Abstract--Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) can overcome the problem of overconfidence that plagues traditional frequentist deep neural networks, and are hence considered to be a key enabler for reliable AI systems. In this paper, we introduce a novel Phase Change Memory (PCM)-based hardware implementation for BNNs with binary synapses. The proposed architecture consists of separate weight and noise planes, in which PCM cells are configured (b) Proposed hardware architecture consisting of a N M crossbar and operated to represent the nominal values of weights and of differential PCM (DPCM) cells, referred to as the weight to generate the required noise for sampling, respectively. We choose L < M and reuse hardware accuracy and expected calibration error matching that the conductance values from the L rows in the noise plane stored of an 8-bit fixed-point (FxP8) implementation, with projected in a register through stochastic arbitration (SA), in order to reduce savings of over 9 in terms of core area transistor count. Non-volatile memory (NVM) devices such as Resistive RAM (RRAM), Phase Change Memory (PCM) and Spin-Modern neural networks tend to produce overconfident decisions, Transfer Torque RAM (STTRAM) are being explored for misrepresenting the inherent epistemic uncertainty that the implementation of in-memory computing (IMC) architectures arises from access to limited data [1].
Uncertainty in Fairness Assessment: Maintaining Stable Conclusions Despite Fluctuations
Barrainkua, Ainhize, Gordaliza, Paula, Lozano, Jose A., Quadrianto, Novi
With the current adoption of machine learning (ML) systems in social, economic, and industrial domains, concerns about the fairness of automated decisions have been added to the problem of ensuring the efficiency of algorithms in a stable and interpretative manner. Although both aspects are measured in terms of performance metrics, fairness entails the additional challenge of incorporating sensitive information in the data and new procedures need to be considered to control the stability of such outcomes. Recent ML trends are increasingly encouraging researchers to incorporate uncertainty into the evaluation of algorithm-based systems. In order to increase the transparency of algorithmic performance measures, typically for comparison purposes, some authors [3, 19] propose to treat these metrics as random variables whose posterior distributions are updated through Bayesian inference. In the fair learning setting, these kinds of considerations are also necessary, especially since fairness metrics have been proved unstable with respect to dataset composition. In particular, Ji et al. [17] or Friedler et al. [12] showed how certain fairness metrics strongly vary, respectively, in hold-out
Online Re-Planning and Adaptive Parameter Update for Multi-Agent Path Finding with Stochastic Travel Times
Kita, Atsuyoshi, Suenari, Nobuhiro, Okada, Masashi, Taniguchi, Tadahiro
This study explores the problem of Multi-Agent Path Finding with continuous and stochastic travel times whose probability distribution is unknown. Our purpose is to manage a group of automated robots that provide package delivery services in a building where pedestrians and a wide variety of robots coexist, such as delivery services in office buildings, hospitals, and apartments. It is often the case with these real-world applications that the time required for the robots to traverse a corridor takes a continuous value and is randomly distributed, and the prior knowledge of the probability distribution of the travel time is limited. Multi-Agent Path Finding has been widely studied and applied to robot management systems; however, automating the robot operation in such environments remains difficult. We propose 1) online re-planning to update the action plan of robots while it is executed, and 2) parameter update to estimate the probability distribution of travel time using Bayesian inference as the delay is observed. We use a greedy heuristic to obtain solutions in a limited computation time. Through simulations, we empirically compare the performance of our method to those of existing methods in terms of the conflict probability and the actual travel time of robots. The simulation results indicate that the proposed method can find travel paths with at least 50% fewer conflicts and a shorter actual total travel time than existing methods. The proposed method requires a small number of trials to achieve the performance because the parameter update is prioritized on the important edges for path planning, thereby satisfying the requirements of quick implementation of robust planning of automated delivery services.