Statistical Learning
Target-specific Adaptation and Consistent Degradation Alignment for Cross-Domain Remaining Useful Life Prediction
Hou, Yubo, Ragab, Mohamed, Wu, Min, Kwoh, Chee-Keong, Li, Xiaoli, Chen, Zhenghua
Accurate prediction of the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) in machinery can significantly diminish maintenance costs, enhance equipment up-time, and mitigate adverse outcomes. Data-driven RUL prediction techniques have demonstrated commendable performance. However, their efficacy often relies on the assumption that training and testing data are drawn from the same distribution or domain, which does not hold in real industrial settings. To mitigate this domain discrepancy issue, prior adversarial domain adaptation methods focused on deriving domain-invariant features. Nevertheless, they overlook target-specific information and inconsistency characteristics pertinent to the degradation stages, resulting in suboptimal performance. To tackle these issues, we propose a novel domain adaptation approach for cross-domain RUL prediction named TACDA. Specifically, we propose a target domain reconstruction strategy within the adversarial adaptation process, thereby retaining target-specific information while learning domain-invariant features. Furthermore, we develop a novel clustering and pairing strategy for consistent alignment between similar degradation stages. Through extensive experiments, our results demonstrate the remarkable performance of our proposed TACDA method, surpassing state-of-the-art approaches with regard to two different evaluation metrics. Our code is available at https://github.com/keyplay/TACDA.
What Signals Really Matter for Misinformation Tasks? Evaluating Fake-News Detection and Virality Prediction under Real-World Constraints
Savatteri, Francesco Paolo, Vidal-Gorรจne, Chahan, Cafiero, Florian
We present an evaluation-driven study of two practical tasks regarding online misinformation: (i) fake-news detection and (ii) virality prediction in the context of operational settings, with the necessity for rapid reaction. Using the EVONS and FakeNewsNet datasets, we compare textual embeddings (RoBERTa; with a control using Mistral) against lightweight numeric features (timing, follower counts, verification, likes) and sequence models (GRU, gating architectures, Transformer encoders). We show that textual content alone is a strong discriminator for fake-news detection, while numeric-only pipelines remain viable when language models are unavailable or compute is constrained. Virality prediction is markedly harder than fake-news detection and is highly sensitive to label construction; in our setup, a median-based ''viral'' split (<50 likes) is pragmatic but underestimates real-world virality, and time-censoring for engagement features is desirable yet difficult under current API limits. Dimensionality-reduction analyses suggest non-linear structure is more informative for virality than for fake-news detection (t-SNE > PCA on numeric features). Swapping RoBERTa for Mistral embeddings yields only modest deltas, leaving conclusions unchanged. We discuss implications for evaluation design and report reproducibility constraints that realistically affect the field. We release splits and code where possible and provide guidance for metric selection.
Tensor Network Based Feature Learning Model
Saiapin, Albert, Batselier, Kim
Many approximations were suggested to circumvent the cubic complexity of kernel-based algorithms, allowing their application to large-scale datasets. One strategy is to consider the primal formulation of the learning problem by mapping the data to a higher-dimensional space using tensor-product structured polynomial and Fourier features. The curse of dimensionality due to these tensor-product features was effectively solved by a tensor network reparameterization of the model parameters. However, another important aspect of model training - identifying optimal feature hyperparameters - has not been addressed and is typically handled using the standard cross-validation approach. In this paper, we introduce the Feature Learning (FL) model, which addresses this issue by representing tensor-product features as a learnable Canonical Polyadic Decomposition (CPD). By leveraging this CPD structure, we efficiently learn the hyperparameters associated with different features alongside the model parameters using an Alternating Least Squares (ALS) optimization method. We prove the effectiveness of the FL model through experiments on real data of various dimensionality and scale. The results show that the FL model can be consistently trained 3-5 times faster than and have the prediction quality on par with a standard cross-validated model.
Water Quality Estimation Through Machine Learning Multivariate Analysis
Cardia, Marco, Chessa, Stefano, Micheli, Alessio, Luminare, Antonella Giuliana, Gambineri, Francesca
The quality of water is key for the quality of agrifood sector. Water is used in agriculture for fertigation, for animal husbandry, and in the agrifood processing industry. In the context of the progressive digitalization of this sector, the automatic assessment of the quality of water is thus becoming an important asset. In this work, we present the integration of Ultraviolet-Visible (UV-Vis) spectroscopy with Machine Learning in the context of water quality assessment aiming at ensuring water safety and the compliance of water regulation. Furthermore, we emphasize the importance of model inter-pretability by employing SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to understand the contribution of absorbance at different wavelengths to the predictions. Our approach demonstrates the potential for rapid, accurate, and interpretable assessment of key water quality parameters.
scCluBench: Comprehensive Benchmarking of Clustering Algorithms for Single-Cell RNA Sequencing
Xu, Ping, Wang, Zaitian, Wang, Zhirui, Li, Pengjiang, Wang, Jiajia, Zhang, Ran, Wang, Pengfei, Zhou, Yuanchun
Cell clustering is crucial for uncovering cellular heterogeneity in single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) data by identifying cell types and marker genes. Despite its importance, benchmarks for scRNA-seq clustering methods remain fragmented, often lacking standardized protocols and failing to incorporate recent advances in artificial intelligence. To fill these gaps, we present scCluBench, a comprehensive benchmark of clustering algorithms for scRNA-seq data. First, scCluBench provides 36 scRNA-seq datasets collected from diverse public sources, covering multiple tissues, which are uniformly processed and standardized to ensure consistency for systematic evaluation and downstream analyses. To evaluate performance, we collect and reproduce a range of scRNA-seq clustering methods, including traditional, deep learning-based, graph-based, and biological foundation models. We comprehensively evaluate each method both quantitatively and qualitatively, using core performance metrics as well as visualization analyses. Furthermore, we construct representative downstream biological tasks, such as marker gene identification and cell type annotation, to further assess the practical utility. scCluBench then investigates the performance differences and applicability boundaries of various clustering models across diverse analytical tasks, systematically assessing their robustness and scalability in real-world scenarios. Overall, scCluBench offers a standardized and user-friendly benchmark for scRNA-seq clustering, with curated datasets, unified evaluation protocols, and transparent analyses, facilitating informed method selection and providing valuable insights into model generalizability and application scope.
Quantum feature encoding optimization
Fioravanti, Tommaso, Quanz, Brian, Agliardi, Gabriele, Guzman, Edgar Andres Ruiz, Carrascal, Ginรฉs, Park, Jae-Eun
Quantum Machine Learning (QML) holds the promise of enhancing machine learning modeling in terms of both complexity and accuracy. A key challenge in this domain is the encoding of input data, which plays a pivotal role in determining the performance of QML models. In this work, we tackle a largely unaddressed aspect of encoding that is unique to QML modeling -- rather than adjusting the ansatz used for encoding, we consider adjusting how data is conveyed to the ansatz. We specifically implement QML pipelines that leverage classical data manipulation (i.e., ordering, selecting, and weighting features) as a preprocessing step, and evaluate if these aspects of encoding can have a significant impact on QML model performance, and if they can be effectively optimized to improve performance. Our experimental results, applied across a wide variety of data sets, ansatz, and circuit sizes, with a representative QML approach, demonstrate that by optimizing how features are encoded in an ansatz we can substantially and consistently improve the performance of QML models, making a compelling case for integrating these techniques in future QML applications. Finally we demonstrate the practical feasibility of this approach by running it using real quantum hardware with 100 qubit circuits and successfully achieving improved QML modeling performance in this case as well.
Forecasting MBTA Transit Dynamics: A Performance Benchmarking of Statistical and Machine Learning Models
Nalamalpu, Sai Siddharth, Yuan, Kaining, Zhou, Aiden, Pinsky, Eugene
The Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority (MBTA) is the main public transit provider in Boston, operating multiple means of transport, including trains, subways, and buses. However, the system often faces delays and fluctuations in ridership volume, which negatively affect efficiency and passenger satisfaction. To further understand this phenomenon, this paper compares the performance of existing and unique methods to determine the best approach in predicting gated station entries in the subway system (a proxy for subway usage) and the number of delays in the overall MBTA system. To do so, this research considers factors that tend to affect public transportation, such as day of week, season, pressure, wind speed, average temperature, and precipitation. This paper evaluates the performance of 10 statistical and machine learning models on predicting next-day subway usage. On predicting delay count, the number of models is extended to 11 per day by introducing a self-exciting point process model, representing a unique application of a point-process framework for MBTA delay modeling. This research involves experimenting with the selective inclusion of features to determine feature importance, testing model accuracy via Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Remarkably, it is found that providing either day of week or season data has a more substantial benefit to predictive accuracy compared to weather data; in fact, providing weather data generally worsens performance, suggesting a tendency of models to overfit.
Retrieval-Augmented Memory for Online Learning
Retrieval-augmented models couple parametric predictors with non-parametric memories, but their use in streaming supervised learning with concept drift is not well understood. We study online classification in non-stationary environments and propose Retrieval-Augmented Memory for Online Learning (RAM-OL), a simple extension of stochastic gradient descent that maintains a small buffer of past examples. At each time step, RAM-OL retrieves a few nearest neighbours of the current input in the hidden representation space and updates the model jointly on the current example and the retrieved neighbours. We compare a naive replay variant with a gated replay variant that constrains neighbours using a time window, similarity thresholds, and gradient reweighting, in order to balance fast reuse of relevant past data against robustness to outdated regimes. From a theoretical perspective, we interpret RAM-OL under a bounded drift model and discuss how retrieval can reduce adaptation cost and improve regret constants when patterns recur over time. Empirically, we instantiate RAM-OL on a simple online multilayer perceptron and evaluate it on three real-world data streams derived from electricity pricing, electricity load, and airline delay data. On strongly and periodically drifting streams, RAM-OL improves prequential accuracy by up to about seven percentage points and greatly reduces variance across random seeds, while on a noisy airline stream the gated variant closely matches the purely online baseline. These results show that retrieval-augmented memory is a practical and robust tool for online learning under concept drift.
Multifractal Recalibration of Neural Networks for Medical Imaging Segmentation
Martins, Miguel L., Coimbra, Miguel T., Renna, Francesco
Multifractal analysis has revealed regularities in many self-seeding phenomena, yet its use in modern deep learning remains limited. Existing end-to-end multifractal methods rely on heavy pooling or strong feature-space decimation, which constrain tasks such as semantic segmentation. Motivated by these limitations, we introduce two inductive priors: Monofractal and Multifractal Recalibration. These methods leverage relationships between the probability mass of the exponents and the multifractal spectrum to form statistical descriptions of encoder embeddings, implemented as channel-attention functions in convolutional networks. Using a U-Net-based framework, we show that multifractal recalibration yields substantial gains over a baseline equipped with other channel-attention mechanisms that also use higher-order statistics. Given the proven ability of multifractal analysis to capture pathological regularities, we validate our approach on three public medical-imaging datasets: ISIC18 (dermoscopy), Kvasir-SEG (endoscopy), and BUSI (ultrasound). Our empirical analysis also provides insights into the behavior of these attention layers. We find that excitation responses do not become increasingly specialized with encoder depth in U-Net architectures due to skip connections, and that their effectiveness may relate to global statistics of instance variability.
Opening the Black Box: Nowcasting Singapore's GDP Growth and its Explainability
Timely assessment of current conditions is essential especially for small, open economies such as Singapore, where external shocks transmit rapidly to domestic activity. We develop a real-time nowcasting framework for quarterly GDP growth using a high-dimensional panel of approximately 70 indicators, encompassing economic and financial indicators over 1990Q1-2023Q2. The analysis covers penalized regressions, dimensionality-reduction methods, ensemble learning algorithms, and neural architectures, benchmarked against a Random Walk, an AR(3), and a Dynamic Factor Model. The pipeline preserves temporal ordering through an expanding-window walk-forward design with Bayesian hyperparameter optimization, and uses moving block-bootstrap procedures both to construct prediction intervals and to obtain confidence bands for feature-importance measures. It adopts model-specific and XAI-based explainability tools. A Model Confidence Set procedure identifies statistically superior learners, which are then combined through simple, weighted, and exponentially weighted schemes; the resulting time-varying weights provide an interpretable representation of model contributions. Predictive ability is assessed via Giacomini-White tests. Empirical results show that penalized regressions, dimensionality-reduction models, and GRU networks consistently outperform all benchmarks, with RMSFE reductions of roughly 40-60%; aggregation delivers further gains. Feature-attribution methods highlight industrial production, external trade, and labor-market indicators as dominant drivers of Singapore's short-run growth dynamics.