Statistical Learning
An AI-Powered Autonomous Underwater System for Sea Exploration and Scientific Research
Almazrouei, Hamad, Nasseri, Mariam Al, Alzaabi, Maha
Traditional sea exploration faces significant challenges due to extreme conditions, limited visibility, and high costs, resulting in vast unexplored ocean regions. This paper presents an innovative AI-powered Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) system designed to overcome these limitations by automating underwater object detection, analysis, and reporting. The system integrates YOLOv12 Nano for real-time object detection, a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) (ResNet50) for feature extraction, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for dimensionality reduction, and K-Means++ clustering for grouping marine objects based on visual characteristics. Furthermore, a Large Language Model (LLM) (GPT-4o Mini) is employed to generate structured reports and summaries of underwater findings, enhancing data interpretation. The system was trained and evaluated on a combined dataset of over 55,000 images from the DeepFish and OzFish datasets, capturing diverse Australian marine environments. Experimental results demonstrate the system's capability to detect marine objects with a mAP@0.5 of 0.512, a precision of 0.535, and a recall of 0.438. The integration of PCA effectively reduced feature dimensionality while preserving 98% variance, facilitating K-Means clustering which successfully grouped detected objects based on visual similarities. The LLM integration proved effective in generating insightful summaries of detections and clusters, supported by location data. This integrated approach significantly reduces the risks associated with human diving, increases mission efficiency, and enhances the speed and depth of underwater data analysis, paving the way for more effective scientific research and discovery in challenging marine environments.
A Mathematical Theory of Top-$k$ Sparse Attention via Total Variation Distance
Tzachristas, Georgios, Deng, Lei, Tzachristas, Ioannis, Zhang, Gong, Chen, Renhai
We develop a unified mathematical framework for certified Top-$k$ attention truncation that quantifies approximation error at both the distribution and output levels. For a single attention distribution $P$ and its Top-$k$ truncation $\hat P$, we show that the total-variation distance coincides with the discarded softmax tail mass and satisfies $\mathrm{TV}(P,\hat P)=1-e^{-\mathrm{KL}(\hat P\Vert P)}$, yielding sharp Top-$k$-specific bounds in place of generic inequalities. From this we derive non-asymptotic deterministic bounds -- from a single boundary gap through multi-gap and blockwise variants -- that control $\mathrm{TV}(P,\hat P)$ using only the ordered logits. Using an exact head-tail decomposition, we prove that the output error factorizes as $\|\mathrm{Attn}(q,K,V)-\mathrm{Attn}_k(q,K,V)\|_2=ฯ\|ฮผ_{\mathrm{tail}}-ฮผ_{\mathrm{head}}\|_2$ with $ฯ=\mathrm{TV}(P,\hat P)$, yielding a new head-tail diameter bound $\|\mathrm{Attn}(q,K,V)-\mathrm{Attn}_k(q,K,V)\|_2\leฯ\,\mathrm{diam}_{H,T}$ and refinements linking the error to $\mathrm{Var}_P(V)$. Under an i.i.d. Gaussian score model $s_i\sim\mathcal N(ฮผ,ฯ^2)$ we derive closed-form tail masses and an asymptotic rule for the minimal $k_\varepsilon$ ensuring $\mathrm{TV}(P,\hat P)\le\varepsilon$, namely $k_\varepsilon/n\approxฮฆ_c(ฯ+ฮฆ^{-1}(\varepsilon))$. Experiments on bert-base-uncased and synthetic logits confirm the predicted scaling of $k_\varepsilon/n$ and show that certified Top-$k$ can reduce scored keys by 2-4$\times$ on average while meeting the prescribed total-variation budget.
Comparative Analysis and Parametric Tuning of PPO, GRPO, and DAPO for LLM Reasoning Enhancement
This study presents a systematic comparison of three Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms (PPO, GRPO, and DAPO) for improving complex reasoning in large language models (LLMs). Our main contribution is a controlled transfer-learning evaluation: models are first fine-tuned on the specialized Countdown Game and then assessed on a suite of general-purpose reasoning benchmarks. Across all tasks, RL-trained models outperform their corresponding base models, although the degree of improvement differs by benchmark. Our parametric analysis offers practical guidance for RL-based LLM training. Increasing the group size in GRPO and DAPO leads to more stable training dynamics and higher accuracy, while the impact of the KL-penalty coefficient is non-monotonic. Additionally, we find that the Dynamic Sampling (DS) component in DAPO does not improve performance; in fact, the best overall results are achieved with DAPO when DS is disabled.
KAN-Dreamer: Benchmarking Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks as Function Approximators in World Models
DreamerV3 is a state-of-the-art online model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) algorithm known for remarkable sample efficiency. Concurrently, Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) have emerged as a promising alternative to Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs), offering superior parameter efficiency and interpretability. To mitigate KANs' computational overhead, variants like FastKAN leverage Radial Basis Functions (RBFs) to accelerate inference. In this work, we investigate integrating KAN architectures into the DreamerV3 framework. We introduce KAN-Dreamer, replacing specific MLP and convolutional components of DreamerV3 with KAN and FastKAN layers. To ensure efficiency within the JAX-based World Model, we implement a tailored, fully vectorized version with simplified grid management. We structure our investigation into three subsystems: Visual Perception, Latent Prediction, and Behavior Learning. Empirical evaluations on the DeepMind Control Suite (walker_walk) analyze sample efficiency, training time, and asymptotic performance. Experimental results demonstrate that utilizing our adapted FastKAN as a drop-in replacement for the Reward and Continue predictors yields performance on par with the original MLP-based architecture, maintaining parity in both sample efficiency and training speed. This report serves as a preliminary study for future developments in KAN-based world models.
Asymptotic analysis of shallow and deep forgetting in replay with Neural Collapse
Lanzillotta, Giulia, Meier, Damiano, Hofmann, Thomas
A persistent paradox in continual learning (CL) is that neural networks often retain linearly separable representations of past tasks even when their output predictions fail. We formalize this distinction as the gap between deep feature-space and shallow classifier-level forgetting. We reveal a critical asymmetry in Experience Replay: while minimal buffers successfully anchor feature geometry and prevent deep forgetting, mitigating shallow forgetting typically requires substantially larger buffer capacities. To explain this, we extend the Neural Collapse framework to the sequential setting. We characterize deep forgetting as a geometric drift toward out-of-distribution subspaces and prove that any non-zero replay fraction asymptotically guarantees the retention of linear separability. Conversely, we identify that the "strong collapse" induced by small buffers leads to rank-deficient covariances and inflated class means, effectively blinding the classifier to true population boundaries. By unifying CL with out-of-distribution detection, our work challenges the prevailing reliance on large buffers, suggesting that explicitly correcting these statistical artifacts could unlock robust performance with minimal replay.
Towards a Relationship-Aware Transformer for Tabular Data
Konstantinov, Andrei V., Zuev, Valerii A., Utkin, Lev V.
Deep learning models for tabular data typically do not allow for imposing a graph of external dependencies between samples, which can be useful for accounting for relatedness in tasks such as treatment effect estimation. Graph neural networks only consider adjacent nodes, making them difficult to apply to sparse graphs. This paper proposes several solutions based on a modified attention mechanism, which accounts for possible relationships between data points by adding a term to the attention matrix. Our models are compared with each other and the gradient boosting decision trees in a regression task on synthetic and real-world datasets, as well as in a treatment effect estimation task on the IHDP dataset.
Characterizing Lane-Changing Behavior in Mixed Traffic
Chung, Sungyong, Talebpour, Alireza, Hamdar, Samer H.
Characterizing and understanding lane-changing behavior in the presence of automated vehicles (AVs) is crucial to ensuring safety and efficiency in mixed traffic. Accordingly, this study aims to characterize the interactions between the lane-changing vehicle (active vehicle) and the vehicle directly impacted by the maneuver in the target lane (passive vehicle). Utilizing real-world trajectory data from the Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD), this study explores patterns in lane-changing behavior and provides insight into how these behaviors evolve under different AV market penetration rates (MPRs). In particular, we propose a game-theoretic framework to analyze cooperative and defective behaviors in mixed traffic, applied to the 7,636 observed lane-changing events in the WOMD. First, we utilize k-means clustering to classify vehicles as cooperative or defective, revealing that the proportions of cooperative AVs are higher than those of HDVs in both active and passive roles. Next, we jointly estimate the utilities of active and passive vehicles to model their behaviors using the quantal response equilibrium framework. Empirical payoff tables are then constructed based on these utilities. Using these payoffs, we analyze the presence of social dilemmas and examine the evolution of cooperative behaviors using evolutionary game theory. Our results reveal the presence of social dilemmas in approximately 4% and 11% of lane-changing events for active and passive vehicles, respectively, with most classified as Stag Hunt or Prisoner's Dilemma (Chicken Game rarely observed). Moreover, the Monte Carlo simulation results show that repeated lane-changing interactions consistently lead to increased cooperative behavior over time, regardless of the AV penetration rate.
Geometric Prior-Guided Federated Prompt Calibration
Luo, Fei, Zhao, Ziwei, Wang, Mingxuan, Li, Duoyang, Qian, Zhe, Tuo, Jiayi, Zhou, Chenyue, Ma, Yanbiao
Federated Prompt Learning (FPL) offers a parameter-efficient solution for collaboratively training large models, but its performance is severely hindered by data heterogeneity, which causes locally trained prompts to become biased. Existing methods, focusing on aggregation or regularization, fail to address this root cause of local training bias. To this end, we propose Geometry-Guided Text Prompt Calibration (GGTPC), a novel framework that directly corrects this bias by providing clients with a global geometric prior. This prior, representing the shape of the global data distribution derived from the covariance matrix, is reconstructed on the server in a privacy-preserving manner. Clients then use a novel Geometry-Prior Calibration Layer (GPCL) to align their local feature distributions with this global prior during training. Extensive experiments show GGTPC's effectiveness. On the label-skewed CIFAR-100 dataset ($ฮฒ$=0.1), it outperforms the state-of-the-art by 2.15\%. Under extreme skew ($ฮฒ$=0.01), it improves upon the baseline by 9.17\%. Furthermore, as a plug-and-play module on the domain-skewed Office-Home dataset, it boosts FedAvg's performance by 4.60\%. These results demonstrate that GGTPC effectively mitigates data heterogeneity by correcting the fundamental local training bias, serving as a versatile module to enhance various FL algorithms.
Less is More: Non-uniform Road Segments are Efficient for Bus Arrival Prediction
Huang, Zhen, Deng, Jiaxin, Xu, Jiayu, Pang, Junbiao, Yu, Haitao
Abstract--In bus arrival time prediction, the process of organizing road infrastructure network data into homogeneous entities is known as segmentation. Segmenting a road network is widely recognized as the first and most critical step in developing an arrival time prediction system, particularly for auto-regressive-based approaches. Traditional methods typically employ a uniform segmentation strategy, which fails to account for varying physical constraints along roads, such as road conditions, intersections, and points of interest, thereby limiting prediction efficiency. In this paper, we propose a Reinforcement Learning (RL)-based approach to efficiently and adaptively learn non-uniform road segments for arrival time prediction. Our method decouples the prediction process into two stages: 1) Nonuniform road segments are extracted based on their impact scores using the proposed RL framework; and 2) A linear prediction model is applied to the selected segments to make predictions. This method ensures optimal segment selection while maintaining computational efficiency, offering a significant improvement over traditional uniform approaches. Furthermore, our experimental results suggest that the linear approach can even achieve better performance than more complex methods. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method, which not only enhances efficiency but also improves learning performance on large-scale benchmarks.
UniDiff: A Unified Diffusion Framework for Multimodal Time Series Forecasting
Zhang, Da, Li, Bingyu, Zhao, Zhuyuan, Gao, Junyu, Nie, Feiping, Li, Xuelong
As multimodal data proliferates across diverse real-world applications, leveraging heterogeneous information such as texts and timestamps for accurate time series forecasting (TSF) has become a critical challenge. While diffusion models demonstrate exceptional performance in generation tasks, their application to TSF remains largely confined to modeling single-modality numerical sequences, overlooking the abundant cross-modal signals inherent in complex heterogeneous data. To address this gap, we propose UniDiff, a unified diffusion framework for multimodal time series forecasting. To process the numerical sequence, our framework first tokenizes the time series into patches, preserving local temporal dynamics by mapping each patch to an embedding space via a lightweight MLP. At its core lies a unified and parallel fusion module, where a single cross-attention mechanism adaptively weighs and integrates structural information from timestamps and semantic context from texts in one step, enabling a flexible and efficient interplay between modalities. Furthermore, we introduce a novel classifier-free guidance mechanism designed for multi-source conditioning, allowing for decoupled control over the guidance strength of textual and temporal information during inference, which significantly enhances model robustness. Extensive experiments on real-world benchmark datasets across eight domains demonstrate that the proposed UniDiff model achieves state-of-the-art performance.