Statistical Learning
Robust low-rank estimation with multiple binary responses using pairwise AUC loss
Multiple binary responses arise in many modern data-analytic problems. Although fitting separate logistic regressions for each response is computationally attractive, it ignores shared structure and can be statistically inefficient, especially in high-dimensional and class-imbalanced regimes. Low-rank models offer a natural way to encode latent dependence across tasks, but existing methods for binary data are largely likelihood-based and focus on pointwise classification rather than ranking performance. In this work, we propose a unified framework for learning with multiple binary responses that directly targets discrimination by minimizing a surrogate loss for the area under the ROC curve (AUC). The method aggregates pairwise AUC surrogate losses across responses while imposing a low-rank constraint on the coefficient matrix to exploit shared structure. We develop a scalable projected gradient descent algorithm based on truncated singular value decomposition. Exploiting the fact that the pairwise loss depends only on differences of linear predictors, we simplify computation and analysis. We establish non-asymptotic convergence guarantees, showing that under suitable regularity conditions, leading to linear convergence up to the minimax-optimal statistical precision. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed method is robust in challenging settings such as label switching and data contamination and consistently outperforms likelihood-based approaches.
Deep Exploration of Epoch-wise Double Descent in Noisy Data: Signal Separation, Large Activation, and Benign Overfitting
Kubo, Tomoki, Uda, Ryuken, Iida, Yusuke
Deep double descent is one of the key phenomena underlying the generalization capability of deep learning models. In this study, epoch-wise double descent, which is delayed generalization following overfitting, was empirically investigated by focusing on the evolution of internal structures. Fully connected neural networks of three different sizes were trained on the CIFAR-10 dataset with 30% label noise. By decomposing the loss curves into signal contributions from clean and noisy training data, the epoch-wise evolutions of internal signals were analyzed separately. Three main findings were obtained from this analysis. First, the model achieved strong re-generalization on test data even after perfectly fitting noisy training data during the double descent phase, corresponding to a "benign overfitting" state. Second, noisy data were learned after clean data, and as learning progressed, their corresponding internal activations became increasingly separated in outer layers; this enabled the model to overfit only noisy data. Third, a single, very large activation emerged in the shallow layer across all models; this phenomenon is referred as "outliers," "massive activations," and "super activations" in recent large language models and evolves with re-generalization. These empirical findings directly link the recent key phenomena of "deep double descent," "benign over-fitting," and "large activation", and support the proposal of a novel scenario for understanding deep double descent. Artificial intelligence technologies have undergone remarkable development in recent years, introducing substantial transformation to social structures and influencing various academic fields. Although these models form the core of such technologies, the fundamental principles underlying their high generalization capability when trained on real-world data remain poorly understood. Recent numerical experiments have empirically revealed various intriguing phenomena related to this gap.
Near-Optimal Private Linear Regression via Iterative Hessian Mixing
Lev, Omri, Shenfeld, Moshe, Srinivasan, Vishwak, Ligett, Katrina, Wilson, Ashia C.
We study differentially private ordinary least squares (DP-OLS) with bounded data. The dominant approach, adaptive sufficient-statistics perturbation (AdaSSP), adds an adaptively chosen perturbation to the sufficient statistics, namely, the matrix $X^{\top}X$ and the vector $X^{\top}Y$, and is known to achieve near-optimal accuracy and to have strong empirical performance. In contrast, methods that rely on Gaussian-sketching, which ensure differential privacy by pre-multiplying the data with a random Gaussian matrix, are widely used in federated and distributed regression, yet remain relatively uncommon for DP-OLS. In this work, we introduce the iterative Hessian mixing, a novel DP-OLS algorithm that relies on Gaussian sketches and is inspired by the iterative Hessian sketch algorithm. We provide utility analysis for the iterative Hessian mixing as well as a new analysis for the previous methods that rely on Gaussian sketches. Then, we show that our new approach circumvents the intrinsic limitations of the prior methods and provides non-trivial improvements over AdaSSP. We conclude by running an extensive set of experiments across standard benchmarks to demonstrate further that our approach consistently outperforms these prior baselines.
Nonparametric Kernel Clustering with Bandit Feedback
Thuot, Victor, Vogt, Sebastian, Ghoshdastidar, Debarghya, Verzelen, Nicolas
Clustering with bandit feedback refers to the problem of partitioning a set of items, where the clustering algorithm can sequentially query the items to receive noisy observations. The problem is formally posed as the task of partitioning the arms of an N-armed stochastic bandit according to their underlying distributions, grouping two arms together if and only if they share the same distribution, using samples collected sequentially and adaptively. This setting has gained attention in recent years due to its applicability in recommendation systems and crowdsourcing. Existing works on clustering with bandit feedback rely on a strong assumption that the underlying distributions are sub-Gaussian. As a consequence, the existing methods mainly cover settings with linearly-separable clusters, which has little practical relevance. We introduce a framework of ``nonparametric clustering with bandit feedback'', where the underlying arm distributions are not constrained to any parametric, and hence, it is applicable for active clustering of real-world datasets. We adopt a kernel-based approach, which allows us to reformulate the nonparametric problem as the task of clustering the arms according to their kernel mean embeddings in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). Building on this formulation, we introduce the KABC algorithm with theoretical correctness guarantees and analyze its sampling budget. We introduce a notion of signal-to-noise ratio for this problem that depends on the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) between the arm distributions and on their variance in the RKHS. Our algorithm is adaptive to this unknown quantity: it does not require it as an input yet achieves instance-dependent guarantees.
Minimum Wasserstein distance estimator under covariate shift: closed-form, super-efficiency and irregularity
Lang, Junjun, Zhang, Qiong, Liu, Yukun
Covariate shift arises when covariate distributions differ between source and target populations while the conditional distribution of the response remains invariant, and it underlies problems in missing data and causal inference. We propose a minimum Wasserstein distance estimation framework for inference under covariate shift that avoids explicit modeling of outcome regressions or importance weights. The resulting W-estimator admits a closed-form expression and is numerically equivalent to the classical 1-nearest neighbor estimator, yielding a new optimal transport interpretation of nearest neighbor methods. We establish root-$n$ asymptotic normality and show that the estimator is not asymptotically linear, leading to super-efficiency relative to the semiparametric efficient estimator under covariate shift in certain regimes, and uniformly in missing data problems. Numerical simulations, along with an analysis of a rainfall dataset, underscore the exceptional performance of our W-estimator.
Covariance-Driven Regression Trees: Reducing Overfitting in CART
Decision trees are powerful machine learning algorithms, widely used in fields such as economics and medicine for their simplicity and interpretability. However, decision trees such as CART are prone to overfitting, especially when grown deep or the sample size is small. Conventional methods to reduce overfitting include pre-pruning and post-pruning, which constrain the growth of uninformative branches. In this paper, we propose a complementary approach by introducing a covariance-driven splitting criterion for regression trees (CovRT). This method is more robust to overfitting than the empirical risk minimization criterion used in CART, as it produces more balanced and stable splits and more effectively identifies covariates with true signals. We establish an oracle inequality of CovRT and prove that its predictive accuracy is comparable to that of CART in high-dimensional settings. We find that CovRT achieves superior prediction accuracy compared to CART in both simulations and real-world tasks.
Simulated Annealing-based Candidate Optimization for Batch Acquisition Functions
Alvi, Sk Md Ahnaf Akif, Arrรณyave, Raymundo, Allaire, Douglas
Bayesian Optimization with multi-objective acquisition functions such as q-Expected Hypervolume Improvement (qEHVI) requires efficient candidate optimization to maximize acquisition function values. Traditional approaches rely on continuous optimization methods like Sequential Least Squares Programming (SLSQP) for candidate selection. However, these gradient-based methods can become trapped in local optima, particularly in complex or high-dimensional objective landscapes. This paper presents a simulated annealing-based approach for candidate optimization in batch acquisition functions as an alternative to conventional continuous optimization methods. We evaluate our simulated annealing approach against SLSQP across four benchmark multi-objective optimization problems: ZDT1 (30D, 2 objectives), DTLZ2 (7D, 3 objectives), Kursawe (3D, 2 objectives), and Latent-Aware (4D, 2 objectives). Our results demonstrate that simulated annealing consistently achieves superior hypervolume performance compared to SLSQP in most test functions. The improvement is particularly pronounced for DTLZ2 and Latent-Aware problems, where simulated annealing reaches significantly higher hypervolume values and maintains better convergence characteristics. The histogram analysis of objective space coverage further reveals that simulated annealing explores more diverse and optimal regions of the Pareto front. These findings suggest that metaheuristic optimization approaches like simulated annealing can provide more robust and effective candidate optimization for multi-objective Bayesian optimization, offering a promising alternative to traditional gradient-based methods for batch acquisition function optimization.
Multi-environment Invariance Learning with Missing Data
Learning models that can handle distribution shifts is a key challenge in domain generalization. Invariance learning, an approach that focuses on identifying features invariant across environments, improves model generalization by capturing stable relationships, which may represent causal effects when the data distribution is encoded within a structural equation model (SEM) and satisfies modularity conditions. This has led to a growing body of work that builds on invariance learning, leveraging the inherent heterogeneity across environments to develop methods that provide causal explanations while enhancing robust prediction. However, in many practical scenarios, obtaining complete outcome data from each environment is challenging due to the high cost or complexity of data collection. This limitation in available data hinders the development of models that fully leverage environmental heterogeneity, making it crucial to address missing outcomes to improve both causal insights and robust prediction. In this work, we derive an estimator from the invariance objective under missing outcomes. We establish non-asymptotic guarantees on variable selection property and $\ell_2$ error convergence rates, which are influenced by the proportion of missing data and the quality of imputation models across environments. We evaluate the performance of the new estimator through extensive simulations and demonstrate its application using the UCI Bike Sharing dataset to predict the count of bike rentals. The results show that despite relying on a biased imputation model, the estimator is efficient and achieves lower prediction error, provided the bias is within a reasonable range.
Conditional Normalizing Flows for Forward and Backward Joint State and Parameter Estimation
Lagunowich, Luke S., Tong, Guoxiang Grayson, Schiavazzi, Daniele E.
Traditional filtering algorithms for state estimation -- such as classical Kalman filtering, unscented Kalman filtering, and particle filters - show performance degradation when applied to nonlinear systems whose uncertainty follows arbitrary non-Gaussian, and potentially multi-modal distributions. This study reviews recent approaches to state estimation via nonlinear filtering based on conditional normalizing flows, where the conditional embedding is generated by standard MLP architectures, transformers or selective state-space models (like Mamba-SSM). In addition, we test the effectiveness of an optimal-transport-inspired kinetic loss term in mitigating overparameterization in flows consisting of a large collection of transformations. We investigate the performance of these approaches on applications relevant to autonomous driving and patient population dynamics, paying special attention to how they handle time inversion and chained predictions. Finally, we assess the performance of various conditioning strategies for an application to real-world COVID-19 joint SIR system forecasting and parameter estimation.
Match Made with Matrix Completion: Efficient Learning under Matching Interference
Tang, Zhiyuan, Chen, Wanning, Xu, Kan
Matching markets face increasing needs to learn the matching qualities between demand and supply for effective design of matching policies. In practice, the matching rewards are high-dimensional due to the growing diversity of participants. We leverage a natural low-rank matrix structure of the matching rewards in these two-sided markets, and propose to utilize matrix completion to accelerate reward learning with limited offline data. A unique property for matrix completion in this setting is that the entries of the reward matrix are observed with matching interference -- i.e., the entries are not observed independently but dependently due to matching or budget constraints. Such matching dependence renders unique technical challenges, such as sub-optimality or inapplicability of the existing analytical tools in the matrix completion literature, since they typically rely on sample independence. In this paper, we first show that standard nuclear norm regularization remains theoretically effective under matching interference. We provide a near-optimal Frobenius norm guarantee in this setting, coupled with a new analytical technique. Next, to guide certain matching decisions, we develop a novel ``double-enhanced'' estimator, based off the nuclear norm estimator, with a near-optimal entry-wise guarantee. Our double-enhancement procedure can apply to broader sampling schemes even with dependence, which may be of independent interest. Additionally, we extend our approach to online learning settings with matching constraints such as optimal matching and stable matching, and present improved regret bounds in matrix dimensions. Finally, we demonstrate the practical value of our methods using both synthetic data and real data of labor markets.