Goto

Collaborating Authors

 Statistical Learning


Nested Sampling: A Critical and Comprehensive Theoretical Guide

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The nested sampling (NS) technique has gained widespread attention, particularly in cosmology and astronomy, due to its ability to efficiently explore high-likelihood regions - a feature akin to an implicit likelihood optimization that underlies its success. While the full theoretical derivation of NS is complex and involves several approximations, the central challenge lies in sampling from the likelihood-constrained priors, which is crucial for its performance. This work provides a comprehensive and detailed exposition of NS derivation, clarifying both its theoretical foundations and practical challenges. We provide a thorough description of the NS procedure, emphasizing both its strengths and potential limitations. In doing so, this work seeks to deepen understanding of the method and to foster the development of future enhancements, novel variants, and more efficient implementations across a wide range of scientific applications. Thus, the main contribution of this work is twofold: it serves both as a tutorial for newcomers to the field and as a critical review for experienced practitioners.


Scalable and Interpretable Representation Alignment with Ordinal Similarity

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Evaluating representation similarity is fundamental to representation learning. However, existing metrics suffer from significant limitations: they lack interpretability due to shifting baselines, lack robustness to outliers, and are computationally intractable for large datasets, forcing reliance on heuristic approximations. To address this, we develop an ordinal-similarity framework, instan-Figure 1. TSI and QSI measure alignment between two representiated by the Triplet (TSI) and Quadruplet (QSI) tation spaces (e.g., Visual and Textual) by quantifying the conSimilarity Indices, which measure alignment bysistency of ordinal relationships. TSI checks if relative similarity quantifying the consistency of ordinal relation-from an anchor is preserved (e.g., 'Is Acloser to B than to C?'). QSI compares relative similarity between distinct pairs (e.g., 'Is A ships. We theoretically demonstrate this formu-closer to B than C is to D?') lation is inherently interpretable, robust to outliers, and computationally efficient. Finally, wemodel design and behavioral analysis, the reliability of these establish a formal equivalence between TSI andmetrics is paramount for the interpretability of increasingly local neighborhood alignment, measured by Mu-ubiquitous AI systems.


Non-asymptotic Tail Bounds for the Kostlan--Shub--Smale Field: Tensor PCA and Spherical $k$-Spin Complexity

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper builds a hierarchy of explicit, non-asymptotic tail bounds for the supremum of the Kostlan--Shub--Smale (KSS) random field on the sphere, and applies it to two problems: Spiked Tensor PCA and the landscape of the spherical $k$-spin model. For Tensor PCA, we study the non-asymptotic statistical limits of estimating a rank-$R$ symmetric signal tensor of order~$k\ge 3$ and dimension~$d\ge 3$ from a single Gaussian observation at signal-to-noise ratio~$ฮป$, through the \emph{profile maximum likelihood estimator}, the MLE restricted to normalized rank-$R$ tensors of coherence at least~$ฮบ$. Our analysis uses a single reduction: a deterministic geometric inequality (the Tube Method) and a rank-reduction step bound the estimation error by the supremum of the canonical KSS field, which the Kac--Rice formula turns into a Gaussian integral against the expected absolute characteristic polynomial of a shifted Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble, controlled in turn by the four explicit tail bounds of our hierarchy (three from a Mehta--Fyodorov representation, one from a Ben Arous--Dembo--Guionnet large deviation). The same reduction yields two results, each with explicit constants. For estimation, a finite-$(k,d)$ error bound recovers the asymptotically optimal rate~$\sqrt{d\log k}$ of Perry, Wein and Bandeira, with explicit dependence on the rank~$R$ and the coherence~$ฮบ$. For the landscape, a two-sided non-asymptotic bracketing of the annealed complexity of the spherical $k$-spin Hamiltonian recovers the Auffinger--Ben Arous--ฤŒernรฝ complexity function in the high-dimensional limit.


Sum-of-Squares Degree Barriers for the Reweighted-Hinge Method in Robust Halfspace Learning: A Christoffel-Function Characterization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A certificate that removes outliers sees the data only through its low-degree moments, and an adversary exploits exactly this, hiding corruption where the clean data already looks typical, in the blind spot no bounded-degree test resolves. That blind spot turns out to have an exact size: the Christoffel function of the clean marginal, the very quantity modern data analysis thresholds to detect outliers, here read from the adversary's side as the corruption a bounded-degree certificate cannot remove. We turn this inversion into the organizing principle of the reweighted-hinge approach to robustly learning $ฮณ$-margin halfspaces under malicious noise (Shen, 2025; Zeng and Shen, 2025): the governing resource is the Sum-of-Squares degree of the outlier-removal certificate, and the resolution principle states that the maximal corruption mass which can hide at a center $c$ from a degree-$2t$ certificate is exactly the Christoffel function $ฮป_{t+1}(c)$ of the clean marginal. Three consequences follow, all against the certificate method (not information-theoretic). A margin-degree tradeoff: certifying the dense pancake to error $ฮต$ costs SoS degree $ฮฉ(\log(1/ฮต))$ or margin $ฮฉ(\sqrt{\log(1/ฮต)}/\sqrt{d})$, explaining why the $\log(1/ฮต)$ margin Shen (2025) records is forced, with a weighted-Chebyshev reduction making the threshold $2t=ฮ˜((|c|/s)^2)$ tight modulo one classical weighted-extremal estimate. A degree-$2$ outlier barrier: the resolution principle realized as an explicit instance on which degree $2$ is stuck at $ฮท^{1/2}$ while degree $4$ escapes, locating the method's small breakdown rate in the degree, not the analysis. And a degree-$2t$ algorithm tracing the frontier $ฮท^{1-1/2t}$ (recovering Shen (2025) at $t=1$), whose gain is an explicit constant, capped by the pancake density and shown unimprovable by the degree-$2$ barrier.


Proximal Mediation Analysis with Hidden Recanting Witnesses

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Mediation analysis is essential for decomposing the causal effect of a treatment into direct and indirect pathways. However, many practical settings rely on the stringent assumption that recanting witnesses, defined as treatment-induced mediator-outcome confounders, are either absent or fully known a priori. Such a requirement is often untenable, especially when these variables remain unobservable due to measurement difficulties or privacy constraints. In this paper, we leverage proximal causal inference to develop three novel identification strategies to address the challenge of identifying path-specific effects in the presence of unknown recanting witnesses. Building on this, we develop a semiparametric inference framework that derives the efficient influence function and proposes a proximal multiply robust estimator, which remains consistent if at least one set of nuisance models is correctly specified. When all nuisance models are correctly specified and converge at appropriate rates, the estimator is asymptotically normal and achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound. We provide a minimax optimization-based debiased machine learning procedure for point estimation and constructing valid confidence intervals. The performance of the proposed methods is demonstrated by simulation studies and a real data application.


A Polyak-Ruppert Central Limit Theorem for SA-Adam with Momentum and Non-Convergent Adaptive Preconditioning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Adaptive optimizers combining preconditioning, momentum, and weight decay (Adam and AdamW) are, under Polyak-Ruppert averaging, candidate engines for one-pass inference. Does the averaged iterate keep the classical Polyak-Ruppert central limit theorem (CLT), with sandwich covariance $H^{-1}SH^{-1}$ (Hessian $H$, gradient covariance $S$), under momentum and non-convergent preconditioning? The preconditioner-only analysis does not carry over: with momentum the canonical decomposition collapses to a tautology. Treating the augmented state (iterate, momentum buffer) as a time-varying linear stochastic approximation (SA), we prove (under local stabilization) positive drift stability, a non-autonomous Polyak-Ruppert CLT, and a projection identity. The upshot: the iterate-marginal covariance is exactly the plain stochastic gradient descent (SGD) sandwich $H^{-1}SH^{-1}$, so the adaptivity is asymptotically invisible. This holds for SA-Adam (sub-linearly vanishing momentum gain, $ฮณ\in(ฮฑ,1)$; the sub-linear regime is essential), not constant-$ฮฒ$ deployed Adam. Coupled $L_2$ weight decay yields the ridge-penalized sandwich, extending one-pass inference to regularized problems.


Approximating Gaussian Whittle-Matern Fields over Well-Centered Triangulations of Riemannian Manifolds

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Markovian Whittle-Matรฉrn fields have been convergently approximated by discrete Gauss Markov Random Fields (GMRFs) with sparse precision matrices using a Finite Element approximation of the two-parameter family, \[ (ฮบ^2 - ฮ”)^{ฮฑ/2} u = \mathcal{W}, \;\; ฮบ\in \mathbb{R}, \; ฮฑ\in \mathbb{N}. \] of SPDEs. Using recent developements in the analysis of Discrete Exterior Calculus (DEC), we present a different, yet closely related, convergent GMRF approximation to these Matรฉrn fields over complete, boundaryless Riemannian manifolds discretized as well-centered simplicial complexes. This convergent method (i) is agnostic to $ฮฑ, ฮบ$ and thus allows a universal approximation scheme for the precision and covariance matrices of the entire $(ฮฑ, ฮบ)$-family of GMRFs, so they may be inferred rather than guessed. (ii) inherently models pointwise and piecewise-smoothed measurements of a random field and approximates both equally well (iii) is computationally independent of the interpolants used - it suffers no overhead if one convergent interpolant were replaced with another suitable interpolant over the same mesh. Furthermore, we show that, on discretizations that are well-connected in a precise sense, and volume-concentrated, the precision matrices are spectral functions of a graph-laplacian. We provide a low rank approximator to the family of such Matรฉrn GMRFs and mention a use case: reducing the number of measurements needed to model the GMRF by compressed-sensing.


Geometrical fairness in graph neural networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Graph-based learning methods have become increasingly prominent due to their strong performance across diverse applications. Among these, recent frameworks grounded in diffusion processes provide a unifying perspective that extends traditional graph neural network formulations while addressing limitations of standard message-passing mechanisms. Despite these advances, concerns remain regarding the fairness of such models, as they may propagate or amplify biases present in the data. In this work, we introduce a fairness-aware adaptation of graph-based diffusion by modifying the underlying Laplacian operator. Our approach incorporates multiple complementary transformations, including subspace projections, spectral adjustments, and frequency-based filtering, to mitigate bias-related components. Leveraging the intrinsic smoothing properties of graph diffusion, we provide a principled analysis of the resulting behavior and establish theoretical insights into fairness properties. We evaluate the proposed framework on both synthetic and real-world datasets, demonstrating that it achieves competitive performance while improving fairness metrics with limited additional computational cost.


Accelerated Convex Optimization via Hamiltonian Dynamics with Deterministic Integration Time

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We develop Hamiltonian dynamics-based algorithms for smooth convex optimization that achieve accelerated rates of convergence. By exploiting contraction of averaged Hamiltonian flow trajectories rather than requiring contraction at trajectory endpoints, we show that Hamiltonian dynamics-based optimization methods admit deterministic and accelerated convergence guarantees, extending prior work that is limited to quadratic objectives or holds only in expectation. We analyze an idealized continuous-time algorithm and derive practical discrete-time implementations with optimal first-order complexity, thereby establishing Hamiltonian dynamics as a useful algorithmic primitive for deterministic accelerated convex optimization.


Bayesian Poisson-Randomized Gamma Tensor Factorization with Application to International Trade Flows

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study sparse semi-continuous tensor data with excess zeros, heavy right tails, and slice-specific dispersion. Such features arise naturally in monetary-valued multi-way data, such as international trade, where most exporter--importer--product--year cells are zero while positive values are continuous and highly variable. To model these data, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical tensor factorization model that places a low-rank CP structure on a latent Poisson rate tensor and couples it with a conditional Gamma model for positive outcomes, with rate parameters that can vary across slices within a mode. The model therefore separates the occurrence and magnitude of positive observations while borrowing strength across all tensor dimensions through a shared low-rank latent structure. To scale posterior inference to large arrays, we develop a hybrid variational--Monte Carlo algorithm that combines efficient coordinate ascent updates with a partially collapsed augmented-data sampler. Applied to approximately 60 million trade flows, the method surfaces multiway dependence across exporters, importers, products, and years that is difficult to recover from gravity-type or pairwise network analyses, which do not jointly model the product and temporal dimensions.