In this paper, we investigate the impact of stochasticity and large stepsizes on the implicit regularisation of gradient descent (GD) and stochastic gradient descent (SGD) over diagonal linear networks. We prove the convergence of GD and SGD with macroscopic stepsizes in an overparametrised regression setting and characterise their solutions through an implicit regularisation problem. Our crisp characterisation leads to qualitative insights about the impact of stochasticity and stepsizes on the recovered solution. Specifically, we show that large stepsizes consistently benefit SGD for sparse regression problems, while they can hinder the recovery of sparse solutions for GD. These effects are magnified for stepsizes in a tight window just below the divergence threshold, in the "edge of stability" regime. Our findings are supported by experimental results.

Higher-order multiway data is ubiquitous in machine learning and statistics and often exhibits community-like structures, where each component (node) along each different mode has a community membership associated with it. In this paper we propose the tensor mixed-membership blockmodel, a generalization of the tensor blockmodel positing that memberships need not be discrete, but instead are convex combinations of latent communities. We establish the identifiability of our model and propose a computationally efficient estimation procedure based on the higher-order orthogonal iteration algorithm (HOOI) for tensor SVD composed with a simplex corner-finding algorithm. We then demonstrate the consistency of our estimation procedure by providing a per-node error bound, which showcases the effect of higher-order structures on estimation accuracy. To prove our consistency result, we develop the $\ell_{2,\infty}$ tensor perturbation bound for HOOI under independent, possibly heteroskedastic, subgaussian noise that may be of independent interest. Our analysis uses a novel leave-one-out construction for the iterates, and our bounds depend only on spectral properties of the underlying low-rank tensor under nearly optimal signal-to-noise ratio conditions such that tensor SVD is computationally feasible. Whereas other leave-one-out analyses typically focus on sequences constructed by analyzing the output of a given algorithm with a small part of the noise removed, our leave-one-out analysis constructions use both the previous iterates and the additional tensor structure to eliminate a potential additional source of error. Finally, we apply our methodology to real and simulated data, including applications to two flight datasets and a trade network dataset, demonstrating some effects not identifiable from the model with discrete community memberships.

This paper studies the semi-supervised novelty detection problem where a set of "typical" measurements is available to the researcher. Motivated by recent advances in multiple testing and conformal inference, we propose AdaDetect, a flexible method that is able to wrap around any probabilistic classification algorithm and control the false discovery rate (FDR) on detected novelties in finite samples without any distributional assumption other than exchangeability. In contrast to classical FDR-controlling procedures that are often committed to a pre-specified p-value function, AdaDetect learns the transformation in a data-adaptive manner to focus the power on the directions that distinguish between inliers and outliers. Inspired by the multiple testing literature, we further propose variants of AdaDetect that are adaptive to the proportion of nulls while maintaining the finite-sample FDR control. The methods are illustrated on synthetic datasets and real-world datasets, including an application in astrophysics.

The clustering task consists in partitioning elements of a sample into homogeneous groups. Most datasets contain individuals that are ambiguous and intrinsically difficult to attribute to one or another cluster. However, in practical applications, misclassifying individuals is potentially disastrous and should be avoided. To keep the misclassification rate small, one can decide to classify only a part of the sample. In the supervised setting, this approach is well known and referred to as classification with an abstention option. In this paper the approach is revisited in an unsupervised mixture model framework and the purpose is to develop a method that comes with the guarantee that the false membership rate (FMR) does not exceed a pre-defined nominal level $\alpha$. A plug-in procedure is proposed, for which a theoretical analysis is provided, by quantifying the FMR deviation with respect to the target level $\alpha$ with explicit remainder terms. Bootstrap versions of the procedure are shown to improve the performance in numerical experiments.

Manifold visualisation techniques are commonly used to visualise high-dimensional datasets in physical sciences. In this paper we apply a recently introduced manifold visualisation method, called Slise, on datasets from physics and chemistry. Slisemap combines manifold visualisation with explainable artificial intelligence. Explainable artificial intelligence is used to investigate the decision processes of black box machine learning models and complex simulators. With Slisemap we find an embedding such that data items with similar local explanations are grouped together. Hence, Slisemap gives us an overview of the different behaviours of a black box model. This makes Slisemap into a supervised manifold visualisation method, where the patterns in the embedding reflect a target property. In this paper we show how Slisemap can be used and evaluated on physical data and that Slisemap is helpful in finding meaningful information on classification and regression models trained on these datasets.

This article introduces an advanced analytical approach for predicting backorders in inventory management. Backorder refers to an order that cannot be immediately fulfilled due to stock depletion. Multiple classification techniques, including Balanced Bagging Classifiers, Fuzzy Logic, Variational Autoencoder - Generative Adversarial Networks, and Multi-layer Perceptron classifiers, are assessed in this work using performance evaluation metrics such as ROC-AUC and PR-AUC. Moreover, this work incorporates a profit function and misclassification costs, considering the financial implications and costs associated with inventory management and backorder handling. The study suggests that a combination of modeling approaches, including ensemble techniques and VAE, can effectively address imbalanced datasets in inventory management, emphasizing interpretability and reducing false positives and false negatives. This research contributes to the advancement of predictive analytics and offers valuable insights for future investigations in backorder forecasting and inventory control optimization for decision-making.

For a sequence of classification tasks that arrive over time, it is common that tasks are evolving in the sense that consecutive tasks often have a higher similarity. The incremental learning of a growing sequence of tasks holds promise to enable accurate classification even with few samples per task by leveraging information from all the tasks in the sequence (forward and backward learning). However, existing techniques developed for continual learning and concept drift adaptation are either designed for tasks with time-independent similarities or only aim to learn the last task in the sequence. This paper presents incremental minimax risk classifiers (IMRCs) that effectively exploit forward and backward learning and account for evolving tasks. In addition, we analytically characterize the performance improvement provided by forward and backward learning in terms of the tasks' expected quadratic change and the number of tasks. The experimental evaluation shows that IMRCs can result in a significant performance improvement, especially for reduced sample sizes.

Despite the importance of denoising in modern machine learning and ample empirical work on supervised denoising, its theoretical understanding is still relatively scarce. One concern about studying supervised denoising is that one might not always have noiseless training data from the test distribution. It is more reasonable to have access to noiseless training data from a different dataset than the test dataset. Motivated by this, we study supervised denoising and noisy-input regression under distribution shift. We add three considerations to increase the applicability of our theoretical insights to real-life data and modern machine learning. First, while most past theoretical work assumes that the data covariance matrix is full-rank and well-conditioned, empirical studies have shown that real-life data is approximately low-rank. Thus, we assume that our data matrices are low-rank. Second, we drop independence assumptions on our data. Third, the rise in computational power and dimensionality of data have made it important to study non-classical regimes of learning. Thus, we work in the non-classical proportional regime, where data dimension $d$ and number of samples $N$ grow as $d/N = c + o(1)$. For this setting, we derive general test error expressions for both denoising and noisy-input regression, and study when overfitting the noise is benign, tempered or catastrophic. We show that the test error exhibits double descent under general distribution shift, providing insights for data augmentation and the role of noise as an implicit regularizer. We also perform experiments using real-life data, where we match the theoretical predictions with under 1% MSE error for low-rank data.

Fr\'echet regression has emerged as a promising approach for regression analysis involving non-Euclidean response variables. However, its practical applicability has been hindered by its reliance on ideal scenarios with abundant and noiseless covariate data. In this paper, we present a novel estimation method that tackles these limitations by leveraging the low-rank structure inherent in the covariate matrix. Our proposed framework combines the concepts of global Fr\'echet regression and principal component regression, aiming to improve the efficiency and accuracy of the regression estimator. By incorporating the low-rank structure, our method enables more effective modeling and estimation, particularly in high-dimensional and errors-in-variables regression settings. We provide a theoretical analysis of the proposed estimator's large-sample properties, including a comprehensive rate analysis of bias, variance, and additional variations due to measurement errors. Furthermore, our numerical experiments provide empirical evidence that supports the theoretical findings, demonstrating the superior performance of our approach. Overall, this work introduces a promising framework for regression analysis of non-Euclidean variables, effectively addressing the challenges associated with limited and noisy covariate data, with potential applications in diverse fields.

Feature attribution is a fundamental task in both machine learning and data analysis, which involves determining the contribution of individual features or variables to a model's output. This process helps identify the most important features for predicting an outcome. The history of feature attribution methods can be traced back to General Additive Models (GAMs), which extend linear regression models by incorporating non-linear relationships between dependent and independent variables. In recent years, gradient-based methods and surrogate models have been applied to unravel complex Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems, but these methods have limitations. GAMs tend to achieve lower accuracy, gradient-based methods can be difficult to interpret, and surrogate models often suffer from stability and fidelity issues. Furthermore, most existing methods do not consider users' contexts, which can significantly influence their preferences. To address these limitations and advance the current state-of-the-art, we define a novel feature attribution framework called Context-Aware Feature Attribution Through Argumentation (CA-FATA). Our framework harnesses the power of argumentation by treating each feature as an argument that can either support, attack or neutralize a prediction. Additionally, CA-FATA formulates feature attribution as an argumentation procedure, and each computation has explicit semantics, which makes it inherently interpretable. CA-FATA also easily integrates side information, such as users' contexts, resulting in more accurate predictions.