Statistical Learning
Learning Structured Representations with Hyperbolic Embeddings
Sinha, Aditya, Zeng, Siqi, Yamada, Makoto, Zhao, Han
Most real-world datasets consist of a natural hierarchy between classes or an inherent label structure that is either already available or can be constructed cheaply. However, most existing representation learning methods ignore this hierarchy, treating labels as permutation invariant. Recent work [Zeng et al., 2022] proposes using this structured information explicitly, but the use of Euclidean distance may distort the underlying semantic context [Chen et al., 2013]. In this work, motivated by the advantage of hyperbolic spaces in modeling hierarchical relationships, we propose a novel approach HypStructure: a Hyperbolic Structured regularization approach to accurately embed the label hierarchy into the learned representations. HypStructure is a simple-yet-effective regularizer that consists of a hyperbolic tree-based representation loss along with a centering loss, and can be combined with any standard task loss to learn hierarchy-informed features. Extensive experiments on several large-scale vision benchmarks demonstrate the efficacy of HypStructure in reducing distortion and boosting generalization performance especially under low dimensional scenarios. For a better understanding of structured representation, we perform eigenvalue analysis that links the representation geometry to improved Out-of-Distribution (OOD) detection performance seen empirically. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/uiuctml/HypStructure}.
Long text outline generation: Chinese text outline based on unsupervised framework and large language mode
Outline generation aims to reveal the internal structure of a document by identifying underlying chapter relationships and generating corresponding chapter summaries. Although existing deep learning methods and large models perform well on small- and medium-sized texts, they struggle to produce readable outlines for very long texts (such as fictional works), often failing to segment chapters coherently. In this paper, we propose a novel outline generation method for Chinese, combining an unsupervised framework with large models. Specifically, the method first generates chapter feature graph data based on entity and syntactic dependency relationships. Then, a representation module based on graph attention layers learns deep embeddings of the chapter graph data. Using these chapter embeddings, we design an operator based on Markov chain principles to segment plot boundaries. Finally, we employ a large model to generate summaries of each plot segment and produce the overall outline. We evaluate our model based on segmentation accuracy and outline readability, and our performance outperforms several deep learning models and large models in comparative evaluations.
LLMs as mirrors of societal moral standards: reflection of cultural divergence and agreement across ethical topics
Meijer, Mijntje, Mohammadi, Hadi, Bagheri, Ayoub
Large language models (LLMs) have become increasingly pivotal in various domains due the recent advancements in their performance capabilities. However, concerns persist regarding biases in LLMs, including gender, racial, and cultural biases derived from their training data. These biases raise critical questions about the ethical deployment and societal impact of LLMs. Acknowledging these concerns, this study investigates whether LLMs accurately reflect cross-cultural variations and similarities in moral perspectives. In assessing whether the chosen LLMs capture patterns of divergence and agreement on moral topics across cultures, three main methods are employed: (1) comparison of model-generated and survey-based moral score variances, (2) cluster alignment analysis to evaluate the correspondence between country clusters derived from model-generated moral scores and those derived from survey data, and (3) probing LLMs with direct comparative prompts. All three methods involve the use of systematic prompts and token pairs designed to assess how well LLMs understand and reflect cultural variations in moral attitudes. The findings of this study indicate overall variable and low performance in reflecting cross-cultural differences and similarities in moral values across the models tested, highlighting the necessity for improving models' accuracy in capturing these nuances effectively. The insights gained from this study aim to inform discussions on the ethical development and deployment of LLMs in global contexts, emphasizing the importance of mitigating biases and promoting fair representation across diverse cultural perspectives.
Calibration through the Lens of Interpretability
Torabian, Alireza, Urner, Ruth
In many applications it is important that a classification model not only has high accuracy but that a user is also provided with a reliable estimate of confidence in the predicted label. Calibration is a concept that is often invoked to provide such confidence estimates to a user. As such, calibration is a notion that is inherently aimed at human interpretation. In binary classification, a perfectly calibrated model f provides the guarantee that if it predicts fpxq " p on some instance x, then among the set of all instances on which f assigns this value p the probability of label 1 is indeed p (and the probability of label 0 thus 1 p). While calibration is generally considered useful, we would argue that in many cases, even if achieved, it is doomed to fail at its original goal of providing insight to a human user: for most suitably complex classification models, a human user that observes fpxq " p has no notion of the set of all instances on which f also outputs p.
TAS-TsC: A Data-Driven Framework for Estimating Time of Arrival Using Temporal-Attribute-Spatial Tri-space Coordination of Truck Trajectories
Li, Mengran, Chen, Junzhou, Jiang, Guanying, Li, Fuliang, Zhang, Ronghui, Gong, Siyuan, Lv, Zhihan
Accurately estimating time of arrival (ETA) for trucks is crucial for optimizing transportation efficiency in logistics. GPS trajectory data offers valuable information for ETA, but challenges arise due to temporal sparsity, variable sequence lengths, and the interdependencies among multiple trucks. To address these issues, we propose the Temporal-Attribute-Spatial Tri-space Coordination (TAS-TsC) framework, which leverages three feature spaces-temporal, attribute, and spatial-to enhance ETA. Our framework consists of a Temporal Learning Module (TLM) using state space models to capture temporal dependencies, an Attribute Extraction Module (AEM) that transforms sequential features into structured attribute embeddings, and a Spatial Fusion Module (SFM) that models the interactions among multiple trajectories using graph representation learning.These modules collaboratively learn trajectory embeddings, which are then used by a Downstream Prediction Module (DPM) to estimate arrival times. We validate TAS-TsC on real truck trajectory datasets collected from Shenzhen, China, demonstrating its superior performance compared to existing methods.
A Wave is Worth 100 Words: Investigating Cross-Domain Transferability in Time Series
Ma, Xiangkai, Hong, Xiaobin, Li, Wenzhong, Lu, Sanglu
Time series analysis is a fundamental data mining task that supervised training methods based on empirical risk minimization have proven their effectiveness on specific tasks and datasets. However, the acquisition of well-annotated data is costly and a large amount of unlabeled series data is under-utilized. Due to distributional shifts across various domains and different patterns of interest across multiple tasks. The problem of cross-domain multi-task migration of time series remains a significant challenge. To address these problems, this paper proposes a novel cross-domain pretraining method based on Wave Quantization (termed as WQ4TS), which can be combined with any advanced time series model and applied to multiple downstream tasks. Specifically, we transfer the time series data from different domains into a common spectral latent space, and enable the model to learn the temporal pattern knowledge of different domains directly from the common space and utilize it for the inference of downstream tasks, thereby mitigating the challenge of heterogeneous cross-domains migration. The establishment of spectral latent space brings at least three benefits, cross-domain migration capability thus adapting to zero- and few-shot scenarios without relying on priori knowledge of the dataset, general compatible cross-domain migration framework without changing the existing model structure, and robust modeling capability thus achieving SOTA results in multiple downstream tasks. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, we conduct extensive experiments including three important tasks: forecasting, imputation, and classification. And three common real-world data scenarios are simulated: full-data, few-shot, and zero-shot. The proposed WQ4TS achieves the best performance on 87.5% of all tasks, and the average improvement of the metrics on all the tasks is up to 34.7%.
WaKA: Data Attribution using K-Nearest Neighbors and Membership Privacy Principles
Mesana, Patrick, Bénesse, Clément, Lautraite, Hadrien, Caporossi, Gilles, Gambs, Sébastien
In this paper, we introduce WaKA (Wasserstein K-nearest-neighbors Attribution), a novel attribution method that leverages principles from the LiRA (Likelihood Ratio Attack) framework and k-nearest neighbors classifiers (k-NN). WaKA efficiently measures the contribution of individual data points to the model's loss distribution, analyzing every possible k-NN that can be constructed using the training set, without requiring to sample subsets of the training set. WaKA is versatile and can be used a posteriori as a membership inference attack (MIA) to assess privacy risks or a priori for privacy influence measurement and data valuation. Thus, WaKA can be seen as bridging the gap between data attribution and membership inference attack (MIA) by providing a unified framework to distinguish between a data point's value and its privacy risk. For instance, we have shown that self-attribution values are more strongly correlated with the attack success rate than the contribution of a point to the model generalization. WaKA's different usage were also evaluated across diverse real-world datasets, demonstrating performance very close to LiRA when used as an MIA on k-NN classifiers, but with greater computational efficiency. Additionally, WaKA shows greater robustness than Shapley Values for data minimization tasks (removal or addition) on imbalanced datasets.
Improving behavior profile discovery for vehicles
de Moura, Nelson, Nashashibi, Fawzi, Garrido, Fernando
-- Multiple approaches have already been proposed to mimic real driver behaviors in simulation. This article proposes a new one, based solely on the exploration of undisturbed observation of intersections. From them, the behavior profiles for each macro-maneuver will be discovered. Using the macro-maneuvers already identified in previous works, a comparison method between trajectories with different lengths using an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) is proposed, which combined with an Expectation-Maximization (EM) inspired method, defines the different clusters that represent the behaviors observed. This is also paired with a Kullback-Liebler divergent (KL) criteria to define when the clusters need to be split or merged. Finally, the behaviors for each macro-maneuver are determined by each cluster discovered, without using any map information about the environment and being dynamically consistent with vehicle motion. By observation it becomes clear that the two main factors for driver's behavior are their assertiveness and interaction with other road users.
Reliable and scalable variable importance estimation via warm-start and early stopping
Sun, Zexuan, Raskutti, Garvesh
As opaque black-box predictive models become more prevalent, the need to develop interpretations for these models is of great interest. The concept of variable importance and Shapley values are interpretability measures that applies to any predictive model and assesses how much a variable or set of variables improves prediction performance. When the number of variables is large, estimating variable importance presents a significant computational challenge because re-training neural networks or other black-box algorithms requires significant additional computation. In this paper, we address this challenge for algorithms using gradient descent and gradient boosting (e.g. neural networks, gradient-boosted decision trees). By using the ideas of early stopping of gradient-based methods in combination with warm-start using the dropout method, we develop a scalable method to estimate variable importance for any algorithm that can be expressed as an iterative kernel update equation. Importantly, we provide theoretical guarantees by using the theory for early stopping of kernel-based methods for neural networks with sufficiently large (but not necessarily infinite) width and gradient-boosting decision trees that use symmetric trees as a weaker learner. We also demonstrate the efficacy of our methods through simulations and a real data example which illustrates the computational benefit of early stopping rather than fully re-training the model as well as the increased accuracy of our approach.
Spatial Conformal Inference through Localized Quantile Regression
Reliable uncertainty quantification at unobserved spatial locations, especially in the presence of complex and heterogeneous datasets, remains a core challenge in spatial statistics. Traditional approaches like Kriging rely heavily on assumptions such as normality, which often break down in large-scale, diverse datasets, leading to unreliable prediction intervals. While machine learning methods have emerged as powerful alternatives, they primarily focus on point predictions and provide limited mechanisms for uncertainty quantification. Conformal prediction, a distribution-free framework, offers valid prediction intervals without relying on parametric assumptions. However, existing conformal prediction methods are either not tailored for spatial settings, or existing ones for spatial data have relied on rather restrictive i.i.d. assumptions. In this paper, we propose Localized Spatial Conformal Prediction (LSCP), a conformal prediction method designed specifically for spatial data. LSCP leverages localized quantile regression to construct prediction intervals. Instead of i.i.d. assumptions, our theoretical analysis builds on weaker conditions of stationarity and spatial mixing, which is natural for spatial data, providing finite-sample bounds on the conditional coverage gap and establishing asymptotic guarantees for conditional coverage. We present experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets to demonstrate that LSCP achieves accurate coverage with significantly tighter and more consistent prediction intervals across the spatial domain compared to existing methods.