We consider an operator-based latent Markov representation of a stochastic nonlinear dynamical system, where the stochastic evolution of the latent state embedded in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space is described with the corresponding transfer operator, and develop a spectral method to learn this representation based on the theory of stochastic realization. The embedding may be learned simultaneously using reproducing kernels, for example, constructed with feed-forward neural networks. We also address the generalization of sequential state-estimation (Kalman filtering) in stochastic nonlinear systems, and of operator-based eigen-mode decomposition of dynamics, for the representation. Several examples with synthetic and real-world data are shown to illustrate the empirical characteristics of our methods, and to investigate the performance of our model in sequential state-estimation and mode decomposition.

--Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is an important application across many fields. There is a debate about whether Transformers, despite being good at understanding long sequences, struggle with preserving temporal relationships in time series data. Recent research suggests that simpler linear models might outperform or at least provide competitive performance compared to complex Transformer-based models for TSF tasks. In this paper, we propose a novel data-efficient architecture, GLinear, for multivariate TSF that exploits periodic patterns to provide better accuracy. It also provides better prediction accuracy by using a smaller amount of historical data compared to other state-of-the-art linear predictors. Four different datasets (ETTh1, Electricity, Traffic, and Weather) are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed predictor . A performance comparison with state-of-the-art linear architectures (such as NLinear, DLinear, and RLinear) and transformer-based time series predictor (Autoformer) shows that the GLinear, despite being parametrically efficient, significantly outperforms the existing architectures in most cases of multivariate TSF . We hope that the proposed GLinear opens new fronts of research and development of simpler and more sophisticated architectures for data and computationally efficient time-series analysis.

Effective String Theory (EST) is a powerful tool used to study confinement in pure gauge theories by modeling the confining flux tube connecting a static quark-anti-quark pair as a thin vibrating string. Recently, flow-based samplers have been applied as an efficient numerical method to study EST regularized on the lattice, opening the route to study observables previously inaccessible to standard analytical methods. Flow-based samplers are a class of algorithms based on Normalizing Flows (NFs), deep generative models recently proposed as a promising alternative to traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in lattice field theory calculations. By combining NF layers with out-of-equilibrium stochastic updates, we obtain Stochastic Normalizing Flows (SNFs), a scalable class of machine learning algorithms that can be explained in terms of stochastic thermodynamics. In this contribution, we outline EST and SNFs, and report some numerical results for the shape of the flux tube.

We present STITCH, a novel approach for neural implicit surface reconstruction of a sparse and irregularly spaced point cloud while enforcing topological constraints (such as having a single connected component). We develop a new differentiable framework based on persistent homology to formulate topological loss terms that enforce the prior of a single 2-manifold object. Our method demonstrates excellent performance in preserving the topology of complex 3D geometries, evident through both visual and empirical comparisons. We supplement this with a theoretical analysis, and provably show that optimizing the loss with stochastic (sub)gradient descent leads to convergence and enables reconstructing shapes with a single connected component. Our approach showcases the integration of differentiable topological data analysis tools for implicit surface reconstruction.

We propose a unified framework based on persistent homology (PH) to characterize both local and global structures in disordered systems. It can simultaneously generate local and global descriptors using the same algorithm and data structure, and has shown to be highly effective and interpretable in predicting particle rearrangements and classifying global phases. We also demonstrated that using a single variable enables a linear SVM to achieve nearly perfect three-phase classification. Inspired by this discovery, we define a non-parametric metric, the Separation Index (SI), which not only achieves this classification without sacrificing significant performance but also establishes a connection between particle environments and the global phase structure. Our methods provide an effective framework for understanding and analyzing the properties of disordered materials, with broad potential applications in materials science and even wider studies of complex systems.

The least trimmed squares (LTS) estimator is a renowned robust alternative to the classic least squares estimator and is popular in location, regression, machine learning, and AI literature. Many studies exist on LTS, including its robustness, computation algorithms, extension to non-linear cases, asymptotics, etc. The LTS has been applied in the penalized regression in a high-dimensional real-data sparse-model setting where dimension $p$ (in thousands) is much larger than sample size $n$ (in tens, or hundreds). In such a practical setting, the sample size $n$ often is the count of sub-population that has a special attribute (e.g. the count of patients of Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, Leukemia, or ALS, etc.) among a population with a finite fixed size N. Asymptotic analysis assuming that $n$ tends to infinity is not practically convincing and legitimate in such a scenario. A non-asymptotic or finite sample analysis will be more desirable and feasible. This article establishes some finite sample (non-asymptotic) error bounds for estimating and predicting based on LTS with high probability for the first time.

We provide a convergence analysis of deep feature instrumental variable (DFIV) regression (Xu et al., 2021), a nonparametric approach to IV regression using data-adaptive features learned by deep neural networks in two stages. We prove that the DFIV algorithm achieves the minimax optimal learning rate when the target structural function lies in a Besov space. This is shown under standard nonparametric IV assumptions, and an additional smoothness assumption on the regularity of the conditional distribution of the covariate given the instrument, which controls the difficulty of Stage 1. We further demonstrate that DFIV, as a data-adaptive algorithm, is superior to fixed-feature (kernel or sieve) IV methods in two ways. First, when the target function possesses low spatial homogeneity (i.e., it has both smooth and spiky/discontinuous regions), DFIV still achieves the optimal rate, while fixed-feature methods are shown to be strictly suboptimal. Second, comparing with kernel-based two-stage regression estimators, DFIV is provably more data efficient in the Stage 1 samples.

Answering causal questions often involves estimating linear functionals of conditional expectations, such as the average treatment effect or the effect of a longitudinal modified treatment policy. By the Riesz representation theorem, these functionals can be expressed as the expected product of the conditional expectation of the outcome and the Riesz representer, a key component in doubly robust estimation methods. Traditionally, the Riesz representer is estimated indirectly by deriving its explicit analytical form, estimating its components, and substituting these estimates into the known form (e.g., the inverse propensity score). However, deriving or estimating the analytical form can be challenging, and substitution methods are often sensitive to practical positivity violations, leading to higher variance and wider confidence intervals. In this paper, we propose a novel gradient boosting algorithm to directly estimate the Riesz representer without requiring its explicit analytical form. This method is particularly suited for tabular data, offering a flexible, nonparametric, and computationally efficient alternative to existing methods for Riesz regression. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that our algorithm performs on par with or better than indirect estimation techniques across a range of functionals, providing a user-friendly and robust solution for estimating causal quantities.

In dynamic decision-making scenarios across business and healthcare, leveraging sample trajectories from diverse populations can significantly enhance reinforcement learning (RL) performance for specific target populations, especially when sample sizes are limited. While existing transfer learning methods primarily focus on linear regression settings, they lack direct applicability to reinforcement learning algorithms. This paper pioneers the study of transfer learning for dynamic decision scenarios modeled by non-stationary finite-horizon Markov decision processes, utilizing neural networks as powerful function approximators and backward inductive learning. We demonstrate that naive sample pooling strategies, effective in regression settings, fail in Markov decision processes.To address this challenge, we introduce a novel ``re-weighted targeting procedure'' to construct ``transferable RL samples'' and propose ``transfer deep $Q^*$-learning'', enabling neural network approximation with theoretical guarantees. We assume that the reward functions are transferable and deal with both situations in which the transition densities are transferable or nontransferable. Our analytical techniques for transfer learning in neural network approximation and transition density transfers have broader implications, extending to supervised transfer learning with neural networks and domain shift scenarios. Empirical experiments on both synthetic and real datasets corroborate the advantages of our method, showcasing its potential for improving decision-making through strategically constructing transferable RL samples in non-stationary reinforcement learning contexts.

Deterministic uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning aims to estimate uncertainty with a single pass through a network by leveraging outputs from the network's feature extractor. Existing methods require that the feature extractor be both sensitive and smooth, ensuring meaningful input changes produce meaningful changes in feature vectors. Smoothness enables generalization, while sensitivity prevents feature collapse, where distinct inputs are mapped to identical feature vectors. To meet these requirements, current deterministic methods often retrain networks with spectral normalization. Instead of modifying training, we propose using measures of neural collapse to identify an existing intermediate layer that is both sensitive and smooth. We then fit a probabilistic model to the feature vector of this intermediate layer, which we call a probabilistic skip connection (PSC). Through empirical analysis, we explore the impact of spectral normalization on neural collapse and demonstrate that PSCs can effectively disentangle aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. Additionally, we show that PSCs achieve uncertainty quantification and out-of-distribution (OOD) detection performance that matches or exceeds existing single-pass methods requiring training modifications. By retrofitting existing models, PSCs enable high-quality UQ and OOD capabilities without retraining.