Statistical Learning
Acquisition through My Eyes and Steps: A Joint Predictive Agent Model in Egocentric Worlds
Chen, Lu, Wang, Yizhou, Tang, Shixiang, Ma, Qianhong, He, Tong, Ouyang, Wanli, Zhou, Xiaowei, Bao, Hujun, Peng, Sida
This paper addresses the task of learning an agent model behaving like humans, which can jointly perceive, predict, and act in egocentric worlds. Previous methods usually train separate models for these three abilities, leading to information silos among them, which prevents these abilities from learning from each other and collaborating effectively. In this paper, we propose a joint predictive agent model, named EgoAgent, that simultaneously learns to represent the world, predict future states, and take reasonable actions with a single transformer. EgoAgent unifies the representational spaces of the three abilities by mapping them all into a sequence of continuous tokens. Learnable query tokens are appended to obtain current states, future states, and next actions. With joint supervision, our agent model establishes the internal relationship among these three abilities and effectively mimics the human inference and learning processes. Comprehensive evaluations of EgoAgent covering image classification, egocentric future state prediction, and 3D human motion prediction tasks demonstrate the superiority of our method. The code and trained model will be released for reproducibility.
Detection of Physiological Data Tampering Attacks with Quantum Machine Learning
Onim, Md. Saif Hassan, Thapliyal, Himanshu
The widespread use of cloud-based medical devices and wearable sensors has made physiological data susceptible to tampering. These attacks can compromise the reliability of healthcare systems which can be critical and life-threatening. Detection of such data tampering is of immediate need. Machine learning has been used to detect anomalies in datasets but the performance of Quantum Machine Learning (QML) is still yet to be evaluated for physiological sensor data. Thus, our study compares the effectiveness of QML for detecting physiological data tampering, focusing on two types of white-box attacks: data poisoning and adversarial perturbation. The results show that QML models are better at identifying label-flipping attacks, achieving accuracy rates of 75%-95% depending on the data and attack severity. This superior performance is due to the ability of quantum algorithms to handle complex and high-dimensional data. However, both QML and classical models struggle to detect more sophisticated adversarial perturbation attacks, which subtly alter data without changing its statistical properties. Although QML performed poorly against this attack with around 45%-65% accuracy, it still outperformed classical algorithms in some cases.
Scalable Differentially Private Bayesian Optimization
Sopa, Getoar, Marusic, Juraj, Avella-Medina, Marco, Cunningham, John P.
In recent years, there has been much work on scaling Bayesian Optimization to high-dimensional problems, for example hyperparameter tuning in large neural network models. These scalable methods have been successful, finding high objective values much more quickly than traditional global Bayesian Optimization or random search-based methods. At the same time, these large neural network models often use sensitive data, but preservation of Differential Privacy has not scaled alongside these modern Bayesian Optimization procedures. Here we develop a method to privately estimate potentially high-dimensional parameter spaces using Gradient Informative Bayesian Optimization. Our theoretical results prove that under suitable conditions, our method converges exponentially fast to a ball around the optimal parameter configuration. Moreover, regardless of whether the assumptions are satisfied, we show that our algorithm maintains privacy and empirically demonstrates superior performance to existing methods in the high-dimensional hyperparameter setting.
Multi-modal Data Fusion and Deep Ensemble Learning for Accurate Crop Yield Prediction
Yewle, Akshay Dagadu, Mirzayeva, Laman, Karakuş, Oktay
This study introduces RicEns-Net, a novel Deep Ensemble model designed to predict crop yields by integrating diverse data sources through multimodal data fusion techniques. The research focuses specifically on the use of synthetic aperture radar (SAR), optical remote sensing data from Sentinel 1, 2, and 3 satellites, and meteorological measurements such as surface temperature and rainfall. The initial field data for the study were acquired through Ernst & Young's (EY) Open Science Challenge 2023. The primary objective is to enhance the precision of crop yield prediction by developing a machine-learning framework capable of handling complex environmental data. A comprehensive data engineering process was employed to select the most informative features from over 100 potential predictors, reducing the set to 15 features from 5 distinct modalities. This step mitigates the ``curse of dimensionality" and enhances model performance. The RicEns-Net architecture combines multiple machine learning algorithms in a deep ensemble framework, integrating the strengths of each technique to improve predictive accuracy. Experimental results demonstrate that RicEns-Net achieves a mean absolute error (MAE) of 341 kg/Ha (roughly corresponds to 5-6\% of the lowest average yield in the region), significantly exceeding the performance of previous state-of-the-art models, including those developed during the EY challenge.
Generating 3D Binding Molecules Using Shape-Conditioned Diffusion Models with Guidance
Chen, Ziqi, Peng, Bo, Zhai, Tianhua, Adu-Ampratwum, Daniel, Ning, Xia
Drug development is a critical but notoriously resource- and time-consuming process. In this manuscript, we develop a novel generative artificial intelligence (genAI) method DiffSMol to facilitate drug development. DiffSmol generates 3D binding molecules based on the shapes of known ligands. DiffSMol encapsulates geometric details of ligand shapes within pre-trained, expressive shape embeddings and then generates new binding molecules through a diffusion model. DiffSMol further modifies the generated 3D structures iteratively via shape guidance to better resemble the ligand shapes. It also tailors the generated molecules toward optimal binding affinities under the guidance of protein pockets. Here, we show that DiffSMol outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on benchmark datasets. When generating binding molecules resembling ligand shapes, DiffSMol with shape guidance achieves a success rate 61.4%, substantially outperforming the best baseline (11.2%), meanwhile producing molecules with novel molecular graph structures. DiffSMol with pocket guidance also outperforms the best baseline in binding affinities by 13.2%, and even by 17.7% when combined with shape guidance. Case studies for two critical drug targets demonstrate very favorable physicochemical and pharmacokinetic properties of the generated molecules, thus, the potential of DiffSMol in developing promising drug candidates.
Revisiting Dynamic Graph Clustering via Matrix Factorization
Li, Dongyuan, Kosugi, Satoshi, Zhang, Ying, Okumura, Manabu, Xia, Feng, Jiang, Renhe
Dynamic graph clustering aims to detect and track time-varying clusters in dynamic graphs, revealing the evolutionary mechanisms of complex real-world dynamic systems. Matrix factorization-based methods are promising approaches for this task; however, these methods often struggle with scalability and can be time-consuming when applied to large-scale dynamic graphs. Moreover, they tend to lack robustness and are vulnerable to real-world noisy data. To address these issues, we make three key contributions. First, to improve scalability, we propose temporal separated matrix factorization, where a single matrix is divided into multiple smaller matrices for independent factorization, resulting in faster computation. Second, to improve robustness, we introduce bi-clustering regularization, which jointly optimizes graph embedding and clustering, thereby filtering out noisy features from the graph embeddings. Third, to further enhance effectiveness and efficiency, we propose selective embedding updating, where we update only the embeddings of dynamic nodes while the embeddings of static nodes are fixed among different timestamps. Experimental results on six synthetic and five real-world benchmarks demonstrate the scalability, robustness and effectiveness of our proposed method. Source code is available at https://github.com/Clearloveyuan/DyG-MF.
Predictive Crash Analytics for Traffic Safety using Deep Learning
Traditional automated crash analysis systems heavily rely on static statistical models and historical data, requiring significant manual interpretation and lacking real-time predictive capabilities. This research presents an innovative approach to traffic safety analysis through the integration of ensemble learning methods and multi-modal data fusion for real-time crash risk assessment and prediction. Our primary contribution lies in developing a hierarchical severity classification system that combines spatial-temporal crash patterns with environmental conditions, achieving significant improvements over traditional statistical approaches. The system demonstrates a Mean Average Precision (mAP) of 0.893, representing a 15% improvement over current state-of-the-art methods (baseline mAP: 0.776). We introduce a novel feature engineering technique that integrates crash location data with incident reports and weather conditions, achieving 92.4% accuracy in risk prediction and 89.7% precision in hotspot identification. Through extensive validation using 500,000 initial crash records filtered to 59,496 high-quality samples, our solution shows marked improvements in both prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. Key innovations include a robust data cleaning pipeline, adaptive feature generation, and a scalable real-time prediction system capable of handling peak loads of 1,000 concurrent requests while maintaining sub-100ms response times.
A Distributional Perspective on Word Learning in Neural Language Models
Ficarra, Filippo, Cotterell, Ryan, Warstadt, Alex
Language models (LMs) are increasingly being studied as models of human language learners. Due to the nascency of the field, it is not well-established whether LMs exhibit similar learning dynamics to humans, and there are few direct comparisons between learning trajectories in humans and models. Word learning trajectories for children are relatively well-documented, and recent work has tried to extend these investigations to language models. However, there are no widely agreed-upon metrics for word learning in language models. We take a distributional approach to this problem, defining lexical knowledge in terms of properties of the learned distribution for a target word. We argue that distributional signatures studied in prior work fail to capture key distributional information. Thus, we propose an array of signatures that improve on earlier approaches by capturing knowledge of both where the target word can and cannot occur as well as gradient preferences about the word's appropriateness. We obtain learning trajectories for a selection of small language models we train from scratch, study the relationship between different distributional signatures, compare how well they align with human word learning trajectories and interpretable lexical features, and address basic methodological questions about estimating these distributional signatures. Our metrics largely capture complementary information, suggesting that it is important not to rely on a single metric. However, across all metrics, language models' learning trajectories fail to correlate with those of children.
Propagation of Chaos for Mean-Field Langevin Dynamics and its Application to Model Ensemble
Nitanda, Atsushi, Lee, Anzelle, Kai, Damian Tan Xing, Sakaguchi, Mizuki, Suzuki, Taiji
Mean-field Langevin dynamics (MFLD) is an optimization method derived by taking the mean-field limit of noisy gradient descent for two-layer neural networks in the mean-field regime. Recently, the propagation of chaos (PoC) for MFLD has gained attention as it provides a quantitative characterization of the optimization complexity in terms of the number of particles and iterations. A remarkable progress by Chen et al. (2022) showed that the approximation error due to finite particles remains uniform in time and diminishes as the number of particles increases. In this paper, by refining the defective log-Sobolev inequality -- a key result from that earlier work -- under the neural network training setting, we establish an improved PoC result for MFLD, which removes the exponential dependence on the regularization coefficient from the particle approximation term of the optimization complexity. As an application, we propose a PoC-based model ensemble strategy with theoretical guarantees.
Nested subspace learning with flags
Many machine learning methods look for low-dimensional representations of the data. The underlying subspace can be estimated by first choosing a dimension $q$ and then optimizing a certain objective function over the space of $q$-dimensional subspaces (the Grassmannian). Trying different $q$ yields in general non-nested subspaces, which raises an important issue of consistency between the data representations. In this paper, we propose a simple trick to enforce nestedness in subspace learning methods. It consists in lifting Grassmannian optimization problems to flag manifolds (the space of nested subspaces of increasing dimension) via nested projectors. We apply the flag trick to several classical machine learning methods and show that it successfully addresses the nestedness issue.