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 Statistical Learning


Linearized Diffusion Map

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce the Linearized Diffusion Map (LDM), a novel linear dimensionality reduction method constructed via a linear approximation of the diffusion-map kernel. LDM integrates the geometric intuition of diffusion-based nonlinear methods with the computational simplicity, efficiency, and interpretability inherent in linear embeddings such as PCA and classical MDS. Through comprehensive experiments on synthetic datasets (Swiss roll and hyperspheres) and real-world benchmarks (MNIST and COIL-20), we illustrate that LDM captures distinct geometric features of datasets compared to PCA, offering complementary advantages. Specifically, LDM embeddings outperform PCA in datasets exhibiting explicit manifold structures, particularly in high-dimensional regimes, whereas PCA remains preferable in scenarios dominated by variance or noise. Furthermore, the complete positivity of LDM's kernel matrix allows direct applicability of Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF), suggesting opportunities for interpretable latent-structure discovery. Our analysis positions LDM as a valuable new linear dimensionality reduction technique with promising theoretical and practical extensions.


Domain Generalization via Pareto Optimal Gradient Matching

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this study, we address the gradient-based domain generalization problem, where predictors aim for consistent gradient directions across different domains. Existing methods have two main challenges. First, minimization of gradient empirical distance or gradient inner products (GIP) leads to gradient fluctuations among domains, thereby hindering straightforward learning. Second, the direct application of gradient learning to the joint loss function can incur high computation overheads due to second-order derivative approximation. To tackle these challenges, we propose a new Pareto Optimality Gradient Matching (POGM) method. In contrast to existing methods that add gradient matching as regularization, we leverage gradient trajectories as collected data and apply independent training at the meta-learner. In the meta-update, we maximize GIP while limiting the learned gradient from deviating too far from the empirical risk minimization gradient trajectory. By doing so, the aggregate gradient can incorporate knowledge from all domains without suffering gradient fluctuation towards any particular domain. Experimental evaluations on datasets from DomainBed demonstrate competitive results yielded by POGM against other baselines while achieving computational efficiency.


Distributed Machine Learning Approach for Low-Latency Localization in Cell-Free Massive MIMO Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

--Low-latency localization is critical in cellular networks to support real-time applications requiring precise positioning. In this paper, we propose a distributed machine learning (ML) framework for fingerprint-based localization tailored to cell-free massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems, an emerging architecture for 6G networks. The proposed framework enables each access point (AP) to independently train a Gaussian process regression model using local angle-of-arrival and received signal strength fingerprints. These models provide probabilistic position estimates for the user equipment (UE), which are then fused by the UE with minimal computational overhead to derive a final location estimate. This decentralized approach eliminates the need for fronthaul communication between the APs and the central processing unit (CPU), thereby reducing latency. Additionally, distributing computational tasks across the APs alleviates the processing burden on the CPU compared to traditional centralized localization schemes. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed distributed framework achieves localization accuracy comparable to centralized methods, despite lacking the benefits of centralized data aggregation. Moreover, it effectively reduces uncertainty of the location estimates, as evidenced by the 95% covariance ellipse. The results highlight the potential of distributed ML for enabling low-latency, high-accuracy localization in future 6G networks. The next-generation 6G mobile communication is expected to revolutionize wireless communication systems, with integrated sensing and communication (ISAC) playing a key role in enabling advanced connectivity.


Traffic Signal Phase and Timing Estimation with Large-Scale Floating Car Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Effective modern transportation systems depend critically on accurate Signal Phase and Timing (SPaT) estimation. However, acquiring ground-truth SPaT information faces significant hurdles due to communication challenges with transportation departments and signal installers. As a result, Floating Car Data (FCD) has become the primary source for large-scale SPaT analyses. Current FCD approaches often simplify the problem by assuming fixed schedules and basic intersection designs for specific times and locations. These methods fail to account for periodic signal changes, diverse intersection structures, and the inherent limitations of real-world data, thus lacking a comprehensive framework that is universally applicable. Addressing this limitation, we propose an industrial-grade FCD analysis suite that manages the entire process, from initial data preprocessing to final SPaT estimation. Our approach estimates signal phases, identifies time-of-day (TOD) periods, and determines the durations of red and green lights. The framework's notable stability and robustness across diverse conditions, regardless of road geometry, is a key feature. Furthermore, we provide a cleaned, de-identified FCD dataset and supporting parameters to facilitate future research. Currently operational within our navigation platform, the system analyses over 15 million FCD records daily, supporting over two million traffic signals in mainland China, with more than 75\% of estimations demonstrating less than five seconds of error.


Digital Twin-Assisted Explainable AI for Robust Beam Prediction in mmWave MIMO Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In line with the AI-native 6G vision, explainability and robustness are crucial for building trust and ensuring reliable performance in millimeter-wave (mmWave) systems. Efficient beam alignment is essential for initial access, but deep learning (DL) solutions face challenges, including high data collection overhead, hardware constraints, lack of explainability, and susceptibility to adversarial attacks. This paper proposes a robust and explainable DL-based beam alignment engine (BAE) for mmWave multiple-input multiple output (MIMO) systems. The BAE uses received signal strength indicator (RSSI) measurements from wide beams to predict the best narrow beam, reducing the overhead of exhaustive beam sweeping. To overcome the challenge of real-world data collection, this work leverages a site-specific digital twin (DT) to generate synthetic channel data closely resembling real-world environments. A model refinement via transfer learning is proposed to fine-tune the pre-trained model residing in the DT with minimal real-world data, effectively bridging mismatches between the digital replica and real-world environments. To reduce beam training overhead and enhance transparency, the framework uses deep Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) to rank input features by importance, prioritizing key spatial directions and minimizing beam sweeping. It also incorporates the Deep k-nearest neighbors (DkNN) algorithm, providing a credibility metric for detecting out-of-distribution inputs and ensuring robust, transparent decision-making. Experimental results show that the proposed framework reduces real-world data needs by 70%, beam training overhead by 62%, and improves outlier detection robustness by up to 8.5x, achieving near-optimal spectral efficiency and transparent decision making compared to traditional softmax based DL models.


A Sparsity Predicting Approach for Large Language Models via Activation Pattern Clustering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit significant activation sparsity, where only a subset of neurons are active for a given input. Although this sparsity presents opportunities to reduce computational cost, efficiently utilizing it requires predicting activation patterns in a scalable manner. However, direct prediction at the neuron level is computationally expensive due to the vast number of neurons in modern LLMs. To enable efficient prediction and utilization of activation sparsity, we propose a clustering-based activation pattern compression framework. Instead of treating each neuron independently, we group similar activation patterns into a small set of representative clusters. Our method achieves up to 79.34% clustering precision, outperforming standard binary clustering approaches while maintaining minimal degradation in perplexity (PPL) scores. With a sufficiently large number of clusters, our approach attains a PPL score as low as 12.49, demonstrating its effectiveness in preserving model quality while reducing computational overhead. By predicting cluster assignments rather than individual neuron states, future models can efficiently infer activation patterns from pre-computed centroids. We detail the clustering algorithm, analyze its effectiveness in capturing meaningful activation structures, and demonstrate its potential to improve sparse computation efficiency. This clustering-based formulation serves as a foundation for future work on activation pattern prediction, paving the way for efficient inference in large-scale language models.


Latent Space Data Fusion Outperforms Early Fusion in Multimodal Mental Health Digital Phenotyping Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Background: Mental illnesses such as depression and anxiety require improved methods for early detection and personalized intervention. Traditional predictive models often rely on unimodal data or early fusion strategies that fail to capture the complex, multimodal nature of psychiatric data. Advanced integration techniques, such as intermediate (latent space) fusion, may offer better accuracy and clinical utility. Methods: Using data from the BRIGHTEN clinical trial, we evaluated intermediate (latent space) fusion for predicting daily depressive symptoms (PHQ-2 scores). We compared early fusion implemented with a Random Forest (RF) model and intermediate fusion implemented via a Combined Model (CM) using autoencoders and a neural network. The dataset included behavioral (smartphone-based), demographic, and clinical features. Experiments were conducted across multiple temporal splits and data stream combinations. Performance was evaluated using mean squared error (MSE) and coefficient of determination (R2). Results: The CM outperformed both RF and Linear Regression (LR) baselines across all setups, achieving lower MSE (0.4985 vs. 0.5305 with RF) and higher R2 (0.4695 vs. 0.4356). The RF model showed signs of overfitting, with a large gap between training and test performance, while the CM maintained consistent generalization. Performance was best when integrating all data modalities in the CM (in contradistinction to RF), underscoring the value of latent space fusion for capturing non-linear interactions in complex psychiatric datasets. Conclusion: Latent space fusion offers a robust alternative to traditional fusion methods for prediction with multimodal mental health data. Future work should explore model interpretability and individual-level prediction for clinical deployment.


Automated Vigilance State Classification in Rodents Using Machine Learning and Feature Engineering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Preclinical sleep research remains constrained by labor intensive, manual vigilance state classification and inter rater variability, limiting throughput and reproducibility. This study presents an automated framework developed by Team Neural Prognosticators to classify electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings of small rodents into three critical vigilance states paradoxical sleep (REM), slow wave sleep (SWS), and wakefulness. The system integrates advanced signal processing with machine learning, leveraging engineered features from both time and frequency domains, including spectral power across canonical EEG bands (delta to gamma), temporal dynamics via Maximum-Minimum Distance, and cross-frequency coupling metrics. These features capture distinct neurophysiological signatures such as high frequency desynchronization during wakefulness, delta oscillations in SWS, and REM specific bursts. Validated during the 2024 Big Data Health Science Case Competition (University of South Carolina Big Data Health Science Center, 2024), our XGBoost model achieved 91.5% overall accuracy, 86.8% precision, 81.2% recall, and an F1 score of 83.5%, outperforming all baseline methods. Our approach represents a critical advancement in automated sleep state classification and a valuable tool for accelerating discoveries in sleep science and the development of targeted interventions for chronic sleep disorders. As a publicly available code (BDHSC) resource is set to contribute significantly to advancements.


FinSurvival: A Suite of Large Scale Survival Modeling Tasks from Finance

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Survival modeling predicts the time until an event occurs and is widely used in risk analysis; for example, it's used in medicine to predict the survival of a patient based on censored data. There is a need for large-scale, realistic, and freely available datasets for benchmarking artificial intelligence (AI) survival models. In this paper, we derive a suite of 16 survival modeling tasks from publicly available transaction data generated by lending of cryptocurrencies in Decentralized Finance (DeFi). Each task was constructed using an automated pipeline based on choices of index and outcome events. For example, the model predicts the time from when a user borrows cryptocurrency coins (index event) until their first repayment (outcome event). We formulate a survival benchmark consisting of a suite of 16 survival-time prediction tasks (FinSurvival). We also automatically create 16 corresponding classification problems for each task by thresholding the survival time using the restricted mean survival time. With over 7.5 million records, FinSurvival provides a suite of realistic financial modeling tasks that will spur future AI survival modeling research. Our evaluation indicated that these are challenging tasks that are not well addressed by existing methods. FinSurvival enables the evaluation of AI survival models applicable to traditional finance, industry, medicine, and commerce, which is currently hindered by the lack of large public datasets. Our benchmark demonstrates how AI models could assess opportunities and risks in DeFi. In the future, the FinSurvival benchmark pipeline can be used to create new benchmarks by incorporating more DeFi transactions and protocols as the use of cryptocurrency grows.


Surface EMG Profiling in Parkinson's Disease: Advancing Severity Assessment with GCN-SVM

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Parkinson's disease (PD) poses challenges in diagnosis and monitoring due to its progressive nature and complex symptoms. This study introduces a novel approach utilizing surface electromyography (sEMG) to objectively assess PD severity, focusing on the biceps brachii muscle. Initial analysis of sEMG data from five PD patients and five healthy controls revealed significant neuromuscular differences. A traditional Support Vector Machine (SVM) model achieved up to 83% accuracy, while enhancements with a Graph Convolutional Network-Support Vector Machine (GCN-SVM) model increased accuracy to 92%. Despite the preliminary nature of these results, the study outlines a detailed experimental methodology for future research with larger cohorts to validate these findings and integrate the approach into clinical practice. The proposed approach holds promise for advancing PD severity assessment and improving patient care in Parkinson's disease management.