Model collapse occurs when generative models degrade after repeatedly training on their own synthetic outputs. We study this effect in overparameterized linear regression in a setting where each iteration mixes fresh real labels with synthetic labels drawn from the model fitted in the previous iteration. We derive precise generalization error formulae for minimum-$\ell_2$-norm interpolation and ridge regression under this iterative scheme. Our analysis reveals intriguing properties of the optimal mixing weight that minimizes long-term prediction error and provably prevents model collapse. For instance, in the case of min-$\ell_2$-norm interpolation, we establish that the optimal real-data proportion converges to the reciprocal of the golden ratio for fairly general classes of covariate distributions. Previously, this property was known only for ordinary least squares, and additionally in low dimensions. For ridge regression, we further analyze two popular model classes -- the random-effects model and the spiked covariance model -- demonstrating how spectral geometry governs optimal weighting. In both cases, as well as for isotropic features, we uncover that the optimal mixing ratio should be at least one-half, reflecting the necessity of favoring real-data over synthetic. We validate our theoretical results with extensive simulations.

Regularized linear regression is central to machine learning, yet its high-dimensional behavior with informative priors remains poorly understood. We provide the first exact asymptotic characterization of training and test risks for maximum a posteriori (MAP) regression with Gaussian priors centered at a domain-informed initialization. Our framework unifies ridge regression, least squares, and prior-informed estimators, and -- using random matrix theory -- yields closed-form risk formulas that expose the bias-variance-prior tradeoff, explain double descent, and quantify prior mismatch. We also identify a closed-form minimizer of test risk, enabling a simple estimator of the optimal regularization parameter. Simulations confirm the theory with high accuracy. By connecting Bayesian priors, classical regularization, and modern asymptotics, our results provide both conceptual clarity and practical guidance for learning with structured prior knowledge.

This study considers the estimation of the average treatment effect (ATE). For ATE estimation, we estimate the propensity score through direct bias-correction term estimation. Let $\{(X_i, D_i, Y_i)\}_{i=1}^{n}$ be the observations, where $X_i \in \mathbb{R}^p$ denotes $p$-dimensional covariates, $D_i \in \{0, 1\}$ denotes a binary treatment assignment indicator, and $Y_i \in \mathbb{R}$ is an outcome. In ATE estimation, the bias-correction term $h_0(X_i, D_i) = \frac{1[D_i = 1]}{e_0(X_i)} - \frac{1[D_i = 0]}{1 - e_0(X_i)}$ plays an important role, where $e_0(X_i)$ is the propensity score, the probability of being assigned treatment $1$. In this study, we propose estimating $h_0$ (or equivalently the propensity score $e_0$) by directly minimizing the prediction error of $h_0$. Since the bias-correction term $h_0$ is essential for ATE estimation, this direct approach is expected to improve estimation accuracy for the ATE. For example, existing studies often employ maximum likelihood or covariate balancing to estimate $e_0$, but these approaches may not be optimal for accurately estimating $h_0$ or the ATE. We present a general framework for this direct bias-correction term estimation approach from the perspective of Bregman divergence minimization and conduct simulation studies to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

We propose Convexity-Driven Projection (CDP), a boundary-free linear method for dimensionality reduction of point clouds that targets preserving detour-induced local non-convexity. CDP builds a $k$-NN graph, identifies admissible pairs whose Euclidean-to-shortest-path ratios are below a threshold, and aggregates their normalized directions to form a positive semidefinite non-convexity structure matrix. The projection uses the top-$k$ eigenvectors of the structure matrix. We give two verifiable guarantees. A pairwise a-posteriori certificate that bounds the post-projection distortion for each admissible pair, and an average-case spectral bound that links expected captured direction energy to the spectrum of the structure matrix, yielding quantile statements for typical distortion. Our evaluation protocol reports fixed- and reselected-pairs detour errors and certificate quantiles, enabling practitioners to check guarantees on their data.

In this paper, we study the problem of distributed mean estimation with 1-bit communication constraints. We propose a mean estimator that is based on (randomized and sequentially-chosen) interval queries, whose 1-bit outcome indicates whether the given sample lies in the specified interval. Our estimator is $(ε, δ)$-PAC for all distributions with bounded mean ($-λ\le \mathbb{E}(X) \le λ$) and variance ($\mathrm{Var}(X) \le σ^2$) for some known parameters $λ$ and $σ$. We derive a sample complexity bound $\widetilde{O}\big( \frac{σ^2}{ε^2}\log\frac{1}δ + \log\fracλσ\big)$, which matches the minimax lower bound for the unquantized setting up to logarithmic factors and the additional $\log\fracλσ$ term that we show to be unavoidable. We also establish an adaptivity gap for interval-query based estimators: the best non-adaptive mean estimator is considerably worse than our adaptive mean estimator for large $\fracλσ$. Finally, we give tightened sample complexity bounds for distributions with stronger tail decay, and present additional variants that (i) handle an unknown sampling budget (ii) adapt to the unknown true variance given (possibly loose) upper and lower bounds on the variance, and (iii) use only two stages of adaptivity at the expense of more complicated (non-interval) queries.

Estimating the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) is often constrained by the high cost of obtaining outcome measurements, making active learning essential. However, conventional active learning strategies suffer from a fundamental objective mismatch. They are designed to reduce uncertainty in model parameters or in observable factual outcomes, failing to directly target the unobservable causal quantities that are the true objects of interest. To address this misalignment, we introduce the principle of causal objective alignment, which posits that acquisition functions should target unobservable causal quantities, such as the potential outcomes and the CATE, rather than indirect proxies. We operationalize this principle through the Causal-EPIG framework, which adapts the information-theoretic criterion of Expected Predictive Information Gain (EPIG) to explicitly quantify the value of a query in terms of reducing uncertainty about unobservable causal quantities. From this unified framework, we derive two distinct strategies that embody a fundamental trade-off: a comprehensive approach that robustly models the full causal mechanisms via the joint potential outcomes, and a focused approach that directly targets the CATE estimand for maximum sample efficiency. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our strategies consistently outperform standard baselines, and crucially, reveal that the optimal strategy is context-dependent, contingent on the base estimator and data complexity. Our framework thus provides a principled guide for sample-efficient CATE estimation in practice.

Uniform bounds on sketched inner products of vectors or matrices underpin several important computational and statistical results in machine learning and randomized algorithms, including the Johnson-Lindenstrauss (J-L) lemma, the Restricted Isometry Property (RIP), randomized sketching, and approximate linear algebra. However, many modern analyses involve *sketched bilinear forms*, for which existing uniform bounds either do not apply or are not sharp on general sets. In this work, we develop a general framework to analyze such sketched bilinear forms and derive uniform bounds in terms of geometric complexities of the associated sets. Our approach relies on generic chaining and introduces new techniques for handling suprema over pairs of sets. We further extend these results to the setting where the bilinear form involves a sum of $T$ independent sketching matrices and show that the deviation scales as $\sqrt{T}$. This unified analysis recovers known results such as the J-L lemma as special cases, while extending RIP-type guarantees. Additionally, we obtain improved convergence bounds for sketched Federated Learning algorithms where such cross terms arise naturally due to sketched gradient compression, and design sketched variants of bandit algorithms with sharper regret bounds that depend on the geometric complexity of the action and parameter sets, rather than the ambient dimension.

In this paper, we investigate federated learning for quantile inference under local differential privacy (LDP). We propose an estimator based on local stochastic gradient descent (SGD), whose local gradients are perturbed via a randomized mechanism with global parameters, making the procedure tolerant of communication and storage constraints without compromising statistical efficiency. Although the quantile loss and its corresponding gradient do not satisfy standard smoothness conditions typically assumed in existing literature, we establish asymptotic normality for our estimator as well as a functional central limit theorem. The proposed method accommodates data heterogeneity and allows each server to operate with an individual privacy budget. Furthermore, we construct confidence intervals for the target value through a self-normalization approach, thereby circumventing the need to estimate additional nuisance parameters. Extensive numerical experiments and real data application validate the theoretical guarantees of the proposed methodology.

Real-world applications often face scarce labeled data due to the high cost and time requirements of gold-standard experiments, whereas unlabeled data are typically abundant. With the growing adoption of machine learning techniques, it has become increasingly feasible to generate multiple predicted labels using a variety of models and algorithms, including deep learning, large language models, and generative AI. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that safely and adaptively aggregates multiple black-box predictions with unknown quality while preserving valid statistical inference. Our method provides two key guarantees: (i) it never performs worse than using the labeled data alone, regardless of the quality of the predictions; and (ii) if any one of the predictions (without knowing which one) perfectly fits the ground truth, the algorithm adaptively exploits this to achieve either a faster convergence rate or the semiparametric efficiency bound. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm through experiments on both synthetic and benchmark datasets.

Treatment effect estimation is essential for informed decision-making in many fields such as healthcare, economics, and public policy. While flexible machine learning models have been widely applied for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, quantifying the inherent uncertainty of their point predictions remains an issue. Recent advancements in conformal prediction address this limitation by allowing for inexpensive computation, as well as distribution shifts, while still providing frequentist, finite-sample coverage guarantees under minimal assumptions for any point-predictor model. This advancement holds significant potential for improving decision-making in especially high-stakes environments. In this work, we perform a systematic review regarding conformal prediction methods for treatment effect estimation and provide for both the necessary theoretical background. Through a systematic filtering process, we select and analyze eleven key papers, identifying and describing current state-of-the-art methods in this area. Based on our findings, we propose directions for future research.