Abstract--Accurate cyclone forecasting is essential for minimizing loss of life, infrastructure damage, and economic disruption. Traditional numerical weather prediction models, though effective, are computationally intensive and prone to error due to the chaotic nature of atmospheric systems. This study proposes a machine learning (ML) approach to forecasting tropical cyclone trajectory and status using time series data from the National Hurricane Center, including recently added best track wind radii. A two-stage ML pipeline is developed: a regression model first predicts cyclone features--maximum wind speed, minimum pressure, trajectory length, and directional change--using a sliding window of historical data. These outputs are then input into classification models to predict the cyclone's categorical status. Gradient boosting regression and three classifiers--random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and multi-layer perceptron (MLP)--are evaluated. After hyperparameter tuning and synthetic minority oversampling (SMOTE), the RF classifier achieves the highest performance with 93% accuracy, outperforming SVM and MLP across precision, recall, and F1 score. The RF model is particularly robust in identifying minority cyclone statuses and minimizing false negatives. Regression results yield low mean absolute errors, with pressure and wind predictions within 2.2 mb and 2.4 kt, respectively. These findings demonstrate that ML models, especially ensemble-based classifiers, offer an effective, scalable alternative to traditional forecasting methods, with potential for real-time cyclone prediction and integration into decision-support systems.

We investigate why deep neural networks suffer from loss of plasticity in deep continual learning, failing to learn new tasks without reinitializing parameters. We show that this failure is preceded by Hessian spectral collapse at new-task initialization, where meaningful curvature directions vanish and gradient descent becomes ineffective. To characterize the necessary condition for successful training, we introduce the notion of $τ$-trainability and show that current plasticity preserving algorithms can be unified under this framework. Targeting spectral collapse directly, we then discuss the Kronecker factored approximation of the Hessian, which motivates two regularization enhancements: maintaining high effective feature rank and applying L2 penalties. Experiments on continual supervised and reinforcement learning tasks confirm that combining these two regularizers effectively preserves plasticity.

Deep learning has achieved remarkable success in jet classification tasks, yet a key challenge remains: understanding what these models learn and how their features relate to known QCD observables. Improving interpretability is essential for building robust and trustworthy machine learning tools in collider physics. To address this challenge, we investigate graph neural networks for quark-gluon discrimination, systematically incorporating physics-motivated inductive biases. In particular, we design message-passing architectures that enforce infrared and collinear (IRC) safety, as well as E(2) and O(2) equivariance in the rapidity-azimuth plane. Using simulated jet datasets, we compare these networks against unconstrained baselines in terms of classification performance, robustness to soft emissions, and latent representation structures. Our analysis shows that physics-aware networks are more stable across training instances and distribute their latent variance across multiple interpretable directions. By regressing Energy Flow Polynomials onto the leading principal components, we establish a direct correspondence between learned representations and established IRC-safe jet observables. These results demonstrate that embedding symmetry and safety constraints not only improves robustness but also grounds network representations in known QCD structures, providing a principled approach toward interpretable deep learning in collider physics.

Group interactions occur in various real-world contexts, e.g., co-authorship, email communication, and online Q&A. In each group, there is often a particularly significant member, around whom the group is formed. Examples include the first or last author of a paper, the sender of an email, and the questioner in a Q&A session. In this work, we discuss the existence of such individuals in real-world group interactions. We call such individuals group anchors and study the problem of identifying them. First, we introduce the concept of group anchors and the identification problem. Then, we discuss our observations on group anchors in real-world group interactions. Based on our observations, we develop AnchorRadar, a fast and effective method for group anchor identification under realistic settings with label scarcity, i.e., when only a few groups have known anchors. AnchorRadar is a semi-supervised method using information from groups both with and without known group anchors. Finally, through extensive experiments on thirteen real-world datasets, we demonstrate the empirical superiority of AnchorRadar over various baselines w.r.t. accuracy and efficiency. In most cases, AnchorRadar achieves higher accuracy in group anchor identification than all the baselines, while using 10.2$\times$ less training time than the fastest baseline and 43.6$\times$ fewer learnable parameters than the most lightweight baseline on average.

Stochastic first-order optimization methods, such as Stochastic Gradient Descent ( SGD) (Robbins and Monro, 1951), AdaGrad (Streeter and McMahan, 2010; Duchi et al., 2011), and Adam (Kingma and Ba, 2014), are fundamental for training modern Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) models. However, these methods are often enhanced with additional algorithmic techniques that play a critical role in their convergence and practical performance. Among these, gradient clipping (Pascanu et al., 2013) is one of the most widely used and well-studied approaches. In recent years, substantial efforts have been made to theoretically understand the advantages of gradient clipping and its impact on the convergence of stochastic optimization algorithms. In particular, gradient clipping is a key component in managing heavy-tailed noise, which commonly arises in the training of language models on textual data (Zhang et al., 2020b), in the training of GANs (Goodfellow et al., 2014; Gorbunov et al., 2022), and even in simpler tasks such as image classification (S im sekli et al., 2019). This approach is primarily analyzed through the lens of high-probability convergence, as such guarantees provide a more accurate reflection of the actual behavior of optimization methods compared to their more conventional in-expectation counterparts (Gorbunov et al., 2020).

Time series forecasting (TSF) is a central problem in time series analysis. However, as the number of channels in time series datasets scales to the thousands or more, a scenario we define as High-Dimensional Time Series Forecasting (HDTSF), it introduces significant new modeling challenges that are often not the primary focus of traditional TSF research. HDTSF is challenging because the channel correlation often forms complex and hierarchical patterns. Existing TSF models either ignore these interactions or fail to scale as dimensionality grows. To address this issue, we propose U-Cast, a channel-dependent forecasting architecture that learns latent hierarchical channel structures with an innovative query-based attention. To disentangle highly correlated channel representation, U-Cast adds a full-rank regularization during training. We also release Time-HD, the first benchmark of large, diverse, high-dimensional datasets. Our theory shows that exploiting cross-channel information lowers forecasting risk, and experiments on Time-HD demonstrate that U-Cast surpasses strong baselines in both accuracy and efficiency. Together, U-Cast and Time-HD provide a solid basis for future HDTSF research.

Accurately predicting drug-target interactions (DTIs) is pivotal for advancing drug discovery and target validation techniques. While machine learning approaches including those that are based on Graph Neural Networks (GNN) have achieved notable success in DTI prediction, many of them have difficulties in effectively integrating the diverse features of drugs, targets and their interactions. To address this limitation, we introduce a novel framework to take advantage of the power of both transductive learning and inductive learning so that features at molecular level and drug-target interaction network level can be exploited. Within this framework is a GNN-based model called Graph-in-Graph (GiG) that represents graphs of drug and target molecular structures as meta-nodes in a drug-target interaction graph, enabling a detailed exploration of their intricate relationships. To evaluate the proposed model, we have compiled a special benchmark comprising drug SMILES, protein sequences, and their interaction data, which is interesting in its own right. Our experimental results demonstrate that the GiG model significantly outperforms existing approaches across all evaluation metrics, highlighting the benefits of integrating different learning paradigms and interaction data.

Knowledge graphs (KGs) are vital for enabling knowledge reasoning across various domains. Recent KG reasoning methods that integrate both global and local information have achieved promising results. However, existing methods often suffer from score over-smoothing, which blurs the distinction between correct and incorrect answers and hinders reasoning effectiveness. To address this, we propose DuetGraph, a coarse-to-fine KG reasoning mechanism with dual-pathway global-local fusion. DuetGraph tackles over-smoothing by segregating -- rather than stacking -- the processing of local (via message passing) and global (via attention) information into two distinct pathways, preventing mutual interference and preserving representational discrimination. In addition, DuetGraph introduces a coarse-to-fine optimization, which partitions entities into high- and low-score subsets. This strategy narrows the candidate space and sharpens the score gap between the two subsets, which alleviates over-smoothing and enhances inference quality. Extensive experiments on various datasets demonstrate that DuetGraph achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance, with up to an 8.7% improvement in reasoning quality and a 1.8$\times$ acceleration in training efficiency. Our code is available at https://github.com/USTC-DataDarknessLab/DuetGraph.git.

Many knowledge graph embedding (KGE) models for link prediction use powerful encoders. However, they often rely on a simple hidden vector-matrix multiplication to score subject-relation queries against candidate object entities. When the number of entities is larger than the model's embedding dimension, which is often the case in practice by several orders of magnitude, we have a linear output layer with a rank bottleneck. Such bottlenecked layers limit model expressivity. We investigate both theoretically and empirically how rank bottlenecks affect KGEs. We find that, by limiting the set of feasible predictions, rank bottlenecks hurt the ranking accuracy and distribution fidelity of scores. Inspired by the language modelling literature, we propose KGE-MoS, a mixture-based output layer to break rank bottlenecks in many KGEs. Our experiments show that KGE-MoS improves ranking performance of KGE models on large-scale datasets at a low parameter cost.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have recently been proposed as a promising way to train tabular foundation models. PFNs are transformers that are pre-trained on synthetic data generated from a prespecified prior distribution and that enable Bayesian inference through in-context learning. In this paper, we introduce CausalFM, a comprehensive framework for training PFN-based foundation models in various causal inference settings. First, we formalize the construction of Bayesian priors for causal inference based on structural causal models (SCMs) in a principled way and derive necessary criteria for the validity of such priors. Building on this, we propose a novel family of prior distributions using causality-inspired Bayesian neural networks that enable CausalFM to perform Bayesian causal inference in various settings, including for back-door, front-door, and instrumental variable adjustment. Finally, we instantiate CausalFM and explicitly train models to perform in-context learning in these settings. We show that CausalFM achieves competitive in-context learning performance even when compared to baselines that are specifically trained for the task at hand. In sum, our framework can be used as a general recipe to train foundation models for various causal inference settings. In contrast to the current state-of-the-art in causal inference, CausalFM offers a novel paradigm with the potential to fundamentally change how practitioners perform causal inference in medicine, economics, and other disciplines.