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 Statistical Learning


What is the objective of reasoning with reinforcement learning?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We show that several popular algorithms for reinforcement learning in large language models with binary rewards can be viewed as stochastic gradient ascent on a monotone transform of the probability of a correct answer given a prompt. In particular, the transformation associated with rejection sampling algorithms is the logarithm and that associated with the GRPO algorithm is the arcsine of the square root.


Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Gate-Based Quantum Reservoir Computing on NISQ Hardware

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Quantum reservoir computing (QRC) offers a hardware-friendly approach to temporal learning, yet most studies target univariate signals and overlook near-term hardware constraints. This work introduces a gate-based QRC for multivariate time series (MTS-QRC) that pairs injection and memory qubits and uses a Trotterized nearest-neighbor transverse-field Ising evolution optimized for current device connectivity and depth. On Lorenz-63 and ENSO, the method achieves a mean square error (MSE) of 0.0087 and 0.0036, respectively, performing on par with classical reservoir computing on Lorenz and above learned RNNs on both, while NVAR and clustered ESN remain stronger on some settings. On IBM Heron R2, MTS-QRC sustains accuracy with realistic depths and, interestingly, outperforms a noiseless simulator on ENSO; singular value analysis indicates that device noise can concentrate variance in feature directions, acting as an implicit regularizer for linear readout in this regime. These findings support the practicality of gate-based QRC for MTS forecasting on NISQ hardware and motivate systematic studies on when and how hardware noise benefits QRC readouts.


Manifold Decoders: A Framework for Generative Modeling from Nonlinear Embeddings

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

High-dimensional data analysis and visualization constitute fundamental challenges in machine learning, where nonlinear dimensionality reduction (NLDR) techniques have proven instrumental in discovering low-dimensional embeddings that preserve essential structural properties of complex datasets. These methods, encompassing techniques such as t-distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) [13], Isometric Mapping (Isomap) [12], Locally Linear Embedding (LLE) [10] and Laplacian Eigenmaps [1] excel at revealing intrinsic data manifolds and facilitating interpretable visualizations of high-dimensional phenomena. However, a critical architectural limitation pervades the entire class of traditional NLDR methods: they inherently lack reconstruction capabilities, operating as one-way transformations that map from high-dimensional input spaces to low-dimensional embeddings without providing mechanisms for inverse mapping. This fundamental asymmetry severely constrains the applicability of NLDR techniques in generative modelling, data synthesis, and interactive exploration scenarios where bidirectional transformations are essential. Unlike autoen-coders, which explicitly incorporate decoder architectures during training, classical manifold learning approaches such as t-SNE, Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) [8], and diffusion maps optimize embeddings through eigen decomposition, neighbourhood preservation, or probabilistic formulations that do not naturally yield invertible mappings. Consequently, despite their superior performance in preserving local neighbourhood structures and global topological properties, these methods remain confined to analysis and visualization tasks. This work addresses the reconstruction gap in NLDR methods by developing specialized decoder architectures that enable bidirectional mapping between high-dimensional data and learned manifold representations.


ArtNet: Hierarchical Clustering-Based Artificial Netlist Generator for ML and DTCO Application

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--In advanced nodes, optimization of power, performance and area (PPA) has become highly complex and challenging. Machine learning (ML) and design-technology co-optimization (DTCO) provide promising mitigations, but face limitations due to a lack of diverse training data as well as long design flow turnaround times (T A T). We propose ArtNet, a novel artificial netlist generator designed to tackle these issues. By producing realistic artificial datasets that more closely match given target parameters, ArtNet enables more efficient PPA optimization and exploration of flows and design enablements. In the context of CNN-based DRV prediction, ArtNet's data augmentation improves F1 score by 0.16 compared to using only the original (real) dataset. In the DTCO context, ArtNet-generated mini-brains achieve a PPA match up to 97.94%, demonstrating close alignment with design metrics of targeted full-scale block designs. S modern designs increase in complexity and scale, improvement of power, performance, and area (PP A) has become more challenging. Place-and-route (P&R) tools rely heavily on heuristics, but struggle with problem scale and the need to balance turnaround time (T A T) against quality of results (QoR). Machine learning (ML) offers the promise of T A T reduction through prediction and optimization of design processes to avoid iterative design loops [24]. However, data requirements of ML are difficult to satisfy, and obtaining high-quality, sharable design datasets remains a key challenge. Restrictions on sharing of proprietary designs and EDA tool outputs hinder creation of comprehensive datasets, limiting the effectiveness of ML models and underlying research efforts. At the same time, the slowdown of Moore's Law has made design-technology co-optimization (DTCO) essential to PP A improvement in advanced nodes [4] [5]. However, co-exploration of the broad solution space for design and technology is gated by large tool and flow T A T on real designs.


ProtoTopic: Prototypical Network for Few-Shot Medical Topic Modeling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Topic modeling is a useful tool for analyzing large corpora of written documents, particularly academic papers. Despite a wide variety of proposed topic modeling techniques, these techniques do not perform well when applied to medical texts. This can be due to the low number of documents available for some topics in the healthcare domain. In this paper, we propose ProtoTopic, a prototypical network-based topic model used for topic generation for a set of medical paper abstracts. Prototypical networks are efficient, explainable models that make predictions by computing distances between input datapoints and a set of prototype representations, making them particularly effective in low-data or few-shot learning scenarios. With ProtoTopic, we demonstrate improved topic coherence and diversity compared to two topic modeling baselines used in the literature, demonstrating the ability of our model to generate medically relevant topics even with limited data.


Near-Infrared Hyperspectral Imaging Applications in Food Analysis -- Improving Algorithms and Methodologies

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This thesis investigates the application of near-infrared hyperspectral imaging (NIR-HSI) for food quality analysis. The investigation is conducted through four studies operating with five research hypotheses. For several analyses, the studies compare models based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and partial least squares (PLS). Generally, joint spatio-spectral analysis with CNNs outperforms spatial analysis with CNNs and spectral analysis with PLS when modeling parameters where chemical and physical visual information are relevant. When modeling chemical parameters with a 2-dimensional (2D) CNN, augmenting the CNN with an initial layer dedicated to performing spectral convolution enhances its predictive performance by learning a spectral preprocessing similar to that applied by domain experts. Still, PLS-based spectral modeling performs equally well for analysis of the mean content of chemical parameters in samples and is the recommended approach. Modeling the spatial distribution of chemical parameters with NIR-HSI is limited by the ability to obtain spatially resolved reference values. Therefore, a study used bulk mean references for chemical map generation of fat content in pork bellies. A PLS-based approach gave non-smooth chemical maps and pixel-wise predictions outside the range of 0-100\%. Conversely, a 2D CNN augmented with a spectral convolution layer mitigated all issues arising with PLS. The final study attempted to model barley's germinative capacity by analyzing NIR spectra, RGB images, and NIR-HSI images. However, the results were inconclusive due to the dataset's low degree of germination. Additionally, this thesis has led to the development of two open-sourced Python packages. The first facilitates fast PLS-based modeling, while the second facilitates very fast cross-validation of PLS and other classical machine learning models with a new algorithm.


Learnable Game-theoretic Policy Optimization for Data-centric Self-explanation Rationalization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Rationalization, a data-centric framework, aims to build self-explanatory models to explain the prediction outcome by generating a subset of human-intelligible pieces of the input data. It involves a cooperative game model where a generator generates the most human-intelligible parts of the input (i.e., rationales), followed by a predictor that makes predictions based on these generated rationales. Conventional rationalization methods typically impose constraints via regularization terms to calibrate or penalize undesired generation. However, these methods are suffering from a problem called mode collapse, in which the predictor produces correct predictions yet the generator consistently outputs rationales with collapsed patterns. Moreover, existing studies are typically designed separately for specific collapsed patterns, lacking a unified consideration. In this paper, we systematically revisit cooperative rationalization from a novel game-theoretic perspective and identify the fundamental cause of this problem: the generator no longer tends to explore new strategies to uncover informative rationales, ultimately leading the system to converge to a suboptimal game equilibrium (correct predictions v.s collapsed rationales). To solve this problem, we then propose a novel approach, Game-theoretic Policy Optimization oriented RATionalization (PORAT), which progressively introduces policy interventions to address the game equilibrium in the cooperative game process, thereby guiding the model toward a more optimal solution state. We theoretically analyse the cause of such a suboptimal equilibrium and prove the feasibility of the proposed method. Furthermore, we validate our method on nine widely used real-world datasets and two synthetic settings, where PORAT achieves up to 8.1% performance improvements over existing state-of-the-art methods.


Prediction Markets with Intermittent Contributions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Although both data availability and the demand for accurate forecasts are increasing, collaboration between stakeholders is often constrained by data ownership and competitive interests. In contrast to recent proposals within cooperative game-theoretical frameworks, we place ourselves in a more general framework, based on prediction markets. There, independent agents trade forecasts of uncertain future events in exchange for rewards. We introduce and analyse a prediction market that (i) accounts for the historical performance of the agents, (ii) adapts to time-varying conditions, while (iii) permitting agents to enter and exit the market at will. The proposed design employs robust regression models to learn the optimal forecasts' combination whilst handling missing submissions. Moreover, we introduce a pay-off allocation mechanism that considers both in-sample and out-of-sample performance while satisfying several desirable economic properties. Case-studies using simulated and real-world data allow demonstrating the effectiveness and adaptability of the proposed market design.


Personal Attribute Leakage in Federated Speech Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Federated learning is a common method for privacy-preserving training of machine learning models. In this paper, we analyze the vulnerability of ASR models to attribute inference attacks in the federated setting. We test a non-parametric white-box attack method under a passive threat model on three ASR models: Wav2Vec2, HuBERT, and Whisper. The attack operates solely on weight differentials without access to raw speech from target speakers. We demonstrate attack feasibility on sensitive demographic and clinical attributes: gender, age, accent, emotion, and dysarthria. Our findings indicate that attributes that are underrepresented or absent in the pre-training data are more vulnerable to such inference attacks. In particular, information about accents can be reliably inferred from all models. Our findings expose previously undocumented vulnerabilities in federated ASR models and offer insights towards improved security.


Kernel Representation and Similarity Measure for Incomplete Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Measuring similarity between incomplete data is a fundamental challenge in web mining, recommendation systems, and user behavior analysis. Traditional approaches either discard incomplete data or perform imputation as a preprocessing step, leading to information loss and biased similarity estimates. This paper presents the proximity kernel, a new similarity measure that directly computes similarity between incomplete data in kernel feature space without explicit imputation in the original space. The proposed method introduces data-dependent binning combined with proximity assignment to project data into a high-dimensional sparse representation that adapts to local density variations. For missing value handling, we propose a cascading fallback strategy to estimate missing feature distributions. We conduct clustering tasks on the proposed kernel representation across 12 real world incomplete datasets, demonstrating superior performance compared to existing methods while maintaining linear time complexity. All the code are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/proximity-kernel-2289.