This article explores novel data-driven modeling approaches for analyzing and approximating the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), a physiologically-based metric integrating multiple atmospheric variables to assess thermal comfort. Given the nonlinear, multivariate structure of UTCI, we investigate symbolic and sparse regression techniques as tools for interpretable and efficient function approximation. In particular, we highlight the benefits of using orthogonal polynomial bases-such as Legendre polynomials-in sparse regression frameworks, demonstrating their advantages in stability, convergence, and hierarchical interpretability compared to standard polynomial expansions. We demonstrate that our models achieve significantly lower root-mean squared losses than the widely used sixth-degree polynomial benchmark-while using the same or fewer parameters. By leveraging Legendre polynomial bases, we construct models that efficiently populate a Pareto front of accuracy versus complexity and exhibit stable, hierarchical coefficient structures across varying model capacities. Training on just 20% of the data, our models generalize robustly to the remaining 80%, with consistent performance under bootstrapping. The decomposition effectively approximates the UTCI as a Fourier-like expansion in an orthogonal basis, yielding results near the theoretical optimum in the L2 (least squares) sense. We also connect these findings to the broader context of equation discovery in environmental modeling, referencing probabilistic grammar-based methods that enforce domain consistency and compactness in symbolic expressions. Taken together, these results illustrate how combining sparsity, orthogonality, and symbolic structure enables robust, interpretable modeling of complex environmental indices like UTCI - and significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art approximation in both accuracy and efficiency.

Attribute-missing graph clustering has emerged as a significant unsupervised task, where only attribute vectors of partial nodes are available and the graph structure is intact. The related models generally follow the two-step paradigm of imputation and refinement. However, most imputation approaches fail to capture class-relevant semantic information, leading to sub-optimal imputation for clustering. Moreover, existing refinement strategies optimize the learned embedding through graph reconstruction, while neglecting the fact that some attributes are uncorrelated with the graph. To remedy the problems, we establish the Clustering-oriented Generative Imputation with reliable Refinement (CGIR) model. Concretely, the subcluster distributions are estimated to reveal the class-specific characteristics precisely, and constrain the sampling space of the generative adversarial module, such that the imputation nodes are impelled to align with the correct clusters. Afterwards, multiple subclusters are merged to guide the proposed edge attention network, which identifies the edge-wise attributes for each class, so as to avoid the redundant attributes in graph reconstruction from disturbing the refinement of overall embedding. To sum up, CGIR splits attribute-missing graph clustering into the search and mergence of subclusters, which guides to implement node imputation and refinement within a unified framework. Extensive experiments prove the advantages of CGIR over state-of-the-art competitors.

Machine learning techniques offer an effective approach to modeling dynamical systems solely from observed data. However, without explicit structural priors -- built-in assumptions about the underlying dynamics -- these techniques typically struggle to generalize to aspects of the dynamics that are poorly represented in the training data. Here, we demonstrate that reservoir computing -- a simple, efficient, and versatile machine learning framework often used for data-driven modeling of dynamical systems -- can generalize to unexplored regions of state space without explicit structural priors. First, we describe a multiple-trajectory training scheme for reservoir computers that supports training across a collection of disjoint time series, enabling effective use of available training data. Then, applying this training scheme to multistable dynamical systems, we show that RCs trained on trajectories from a single basin of attraction can achieve out-of-domain generalization by capturing system behavior in entirely unobserved basins.

Finite-sum Coupled Compositional Optimization (FCCO), characterized by its coupled compositional objective structure, emerges as an important optimization paradigm for addressing a wide range of machine learning problems. In this paper, we focus on a challenging class of non-convex non-smooth FCCO, where the outer functions are non-smooth weakly convex or convex and the inner functions are smooth or weakly convex. Existing state-of-the-art result face two key limitations: (1) a high iteration complexity of $O(1/ε^6)$ under the assumption that the stochastic inner functions are Lipschitz continuous in expectation; (2) reliance on vanilla SGD-type updates, which are not suitable for deep learning applications. Our main contributions are two fold: (i) We propose stochastic momentum methods tailored for non-smooth FCCO that come with provable convergence guarantees; (ii) We establish a new state-of-the-art iteration complexity of $O(1/ε^5)$. Moreover, we apply our algorithms to multiple inequality constrained non-convex optimization problems involving smooth or weakly convex functional inequality constraints. By optimizing a smoothed hinge penalty based formulation, we achieve a new state-of-the-art complexity of $O(1/ε^5)$ for finding an (nearly) $ε$-level KKT solution. Experiments on three tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms.

We study the Sobolev IPM problem for measures supported on a graph metric space, where critic function is constrained to lie within the unit ball defined by Sobolev norm. While Le et al. (2025) achieved scalable computation by relating Sobolev norm to weighted $L^p$-norm, the resulting framework remains intrinsically bound to $L^p$ geometric structure, limiting its ability to incorporate alternative structural priors beyond the $L^p$ geometry paradigm. To overcome this limitation, we propose to generalize Sobolev IPM through the lens of \emph{Orlicz geometric structure}, which employs convex functions to capture nuanced geometric relationships, building upon recent advances in optimal transport theory -- particularly Orlicz-Wasserstein (OW) and generalized Sobolev transport -- that have proven instrumental in advancing machine learning methodologies. This generalization encompasses classical Sobolev IPM as a special case while accommodating diverse geometric priors beyond traditional $L^p$ structure. It however brings up significant computational hurdles that compound those already inherent in Sobolev IPM. To address these challenges, we establish a novel theoretical connection between Orlicz-Sobolev norm and Musielak norm which facilitates a novel regularization for the generalized Sobolev IPM (GSI). By further exploiting the underlying graph structure, we show that GSI with Musielak regularization (GSI-M) reduces to a simple \emph{univariate optimization} problem, achieving remarkably computational efficiency. Empirically, GSI-M is several-order faster than the popular OW in computation, and demonstrates its practical advantages in comparing probability measures on a given graph for document classification and several tasks in topological data analysis.

Machine learning approaches for image classification have led to impressive advances in that field. For example, convolutional neural networks are able to achieve remarkable image classification accuracy across a wide range of applications in industry, defense, and other areas. While these machine learning models boast impressive accuracy, a related concern is how to assess and maintain calibration in the predictions these models make. A classification model is said to be well calibrated if its predicted probabilities correspond with the rates events actually occur. While there are many available methods to assess machine learning calibration and recalibrate faulty predictions, less effort has been spent on developing approaches that continually monitor predictive models for potential loss of calibration as time passes. We propose a cumulative sum-based approach with dynamic limits that enable detection of miscalibration in both traditional process monitoring and concept drift applications. This enables early detection of operational context changes that impact image classification performance in the field. The proposed chart can be used broadly in any situation where the user needs to monitor probability predictions over time for potential lapses in calibration. Importantly, our method operates on probability predictions and event outcomes and does not require under-the-hood access to the machine learning model.

We propose a method for variable selection in the intensity function of spatial point processes that combines sparsity-promoting estimation with noise-robust model selection. As high-resolution spatial data becomes increasingly available through remote sensing and automated image analysis, identifying spatial covariates that influence the localization of events is crucial to understand the underlying mechanism. However, results from automated acquisition techniques are often noisy, for example due to measurement uncertainties or detection errors, which leads to spurious displacements and missed events. We study the impact of such noise on sparse point-process estimation across different models, including Poisson and Thomas processes. To improve noise robustness, we propose to use stability selection based on point-process subsampling and to incorporate a non-convex best-subset penalty to enhance model-selection performance. In extensive simulations, we demonstrate that such an approach reliably recovers true covariates under diverse noise scenarios and improves both selection accuracy and stability. We then apply the proposed method to a forestry data set, analyzing the distribution of trees in relation to elevation and soil nutrients in a tropical rain forest. This shows the practical utility of the method, which provides a systematic framework for robust variable selection in spatial point-process models under noise, without requiring additional knowledge of the process.

We investigate the semi-discrete Optimal Transport (OT) problem, where a continuous source measure $μ$ is transported to a discrete target measure $ν$, with particular attention to the OT map approximation. In this setting, Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) based solvers have demonstrated strong empirical performance in recent machine learning applications, yet their theoretical guarantee to approximate the OT map is an open question. In this work, we answer it positively by providing both computational and statistical convergence guarantees of SGD. Specifically, we show that SGD methods can estimate the OT map with a minimax convergence rate of $\mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{n})$, where $n$ is the number of samples drawn from $μ$. To establish this result, we study the averaged projected SGD algorithm, and identify a suitable projection set that contains a minimizer of the objective, even when the source measure is not compactly supported. Our analysis holds under mild assumptions on the source measure and applies to MTW cost functions,whic include $\|\cdot\|^p$ for $p \in (1, \infty)$. We finally provide numerical evidence for our theoretical results.

We present a general strategy for turning generative models into candidate solution samplers for batch Bayesian optimization (BO). The use of generative models for BO enables large batch scaling as generative sampling, optimization of non-continuous design spaces, and high-dimensional and combinatorial design. Inspired by the success of direct preference optimization (DPO), we show that one can train a generative model with noisy, simple utility values directly computed from observations to then form proposal distributions whose densities are proportional to the expected utility, i.e., BO's acquisition function values. Furthermore, this approach is generalizable beyond preference-based feedback to general types of reward signals and loss functions. This perspective avoids the construction of surrogate (regression or classification) models, common in previous methods that have used generative models for black-box optimization. Theoretically, we show that the generative models within the BO process approximately follow a sequence of distributions which asymptotically concentrate at the global optima under certain conditions. We also demonstrate this effect through experiments on challenging optimization problems involving large batches in high dimensions.

Bayesian inference provides principled uncertainty quantification but is often limited by challenges of prior elicitation, likelihood misspecification, and computational burden. The martingale posterior (MGP, Fong et al., 2023) offers an alternative, replacing prior-likelihood elicitation with a predictive rule -- namely, a sequence of one-step-ahead predictive distributions -- for forward data generation. The utility of MGPs depends on the choice of predictive rule, yet the literature has offered few compelling examples. Foundation transformers are well-suited here, as their autoregressive generation mirrors this forward simulation and their general-purpose design enables rich predictive modeling. We introduce TabMGP, an MGP built on TabPFN, a transformer foundation model that is currently state-of-the-art for tabular data. TabMGP produces credible sets with near-nominal coverage and often outperforms both existing MGP constructions and standard Bayes.