Tree-based methods are a family of non-parametric approaches in supervised learning. Random forests use a form of bootstrap aggregation, or bagging, to combine a large collection of trees and produce a final prediction. In regression problems, it gives the same weight to each tree and computes the average out-of-bag prediction. In classification problems, it assigns class labels by majority vote. However, since a single-tree model is known to have high variance, a large number of trees need to be trained and aggregated in order to reduce variance (Hastie et al. 2009). This can lead to redundant trees, as the bootstrap procedure may select similar sets of samples to train different trees. Moreover, increasing the number of trees does not reduce the bias. Post-selection boosting random forests, proposed by Wang & Wang (2021), is an attempt to reduce bias by applying Lasso regression (Tibshirani 1996) on the predictions from each individual tree. The method returns a sparser forest with fewer trees, as well as different weights assigned to each individual tree.

Machine learning (ML) classification models are increasingly being used in a wide range of applications where it is important that predictions are accompanied by uncertainties, including in climate and earth observation, medical diagnosis and bioaerosol monitoring. The output of an ML classification model is a type of categorical variable known as a nominal property in the International Vocabulary of Metrology (VIM). However, concepts related to uncertainty evaluation for nominal properties are not defined in the VIM, nor is such evaluation addressed by the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM). In this paper we propose a metrological conceptual uncertainty evaluation framework for nominal properties. This framework is based on probability mass functions and summary statistics thereof, and it is applicable to ML classification. We also illustrate its use in the context of two applications that exemplify the issues and have significant societal impact, namely, climate and earth observation and medical diagnosis. Our framework would enable an extension of the GUM to uncertainty for nominal properties, which would make both applicable to ML classification models.

Dimensionality reduction is a fundamental task in modern data science. Several projection methods specifically tailored to take into account the non-linearity of the data via local embeddings have been proposed. Such methods are often based on local neighbourhood structures and require tuning the number of neighbours that define this local structure, and the dimensionality of the lower-dimensional space onto which the data are projected. Such choices critically influence the quality of the resulting embedding. In this paper, we exploit a recently proposed intrinsic dimension estimator which also returns the optimal locally adaptive neighbourhood sizes according to some desirable criteria. In principle, this adaptive framework can be employed to perform an optimal hyper-parameter tuning of any dimensionality reduction algorithm that relies on local neighbourhood structures. Numerical experiments on both real-world and simulated datasets show that the proposed method can be used to significantly improve well-known projection methods when employed for various learning tasks, with improvements measurable through both quantitative metrics and the quality of low-dimensional visualizations.

Practitioners deploying time series forecasting models face a dilemma: exhaustively validating dozens of models is computationally prohibitive, yet choosing the wrong model risks poor performance. We show that spectral predictability~$Ω$ -- a simple signal processing metric -- systematically stratifies model family performance, enabling fast model selection. We conduct controlled experiments in four different domains, then further expand our analysis to 51 models and 28 datasets from the GIFT-Eval benchmark. We find that large time series foundation models (TSFMs) systematically outperform lightweight task-trained baselines when $Ω$ is high, while their advantage vanishes as $Ω$ drops. Computing $Ω$ takes seconds per dataset, enabling practitioners to quickly assess whether their data suits TSFM approaches or whether simpler, cheaper models suffice. We demonstrate that $Ω$ stratifies model performance predictably, offering a practical first-pass filter that reduces validation costs while highlighting the need for models that excel on genuinely difficult (low-$Ω$) problems rather than merely optimizing easy ones.

Rehearsal-based Continual Learning (CL) maintains a limited memory buffer to store replay samples for knowledge retention, making these approaches heavily reliant on the quality of the stored samples. Current Rehearsal-based CL methods typically construct the memory buffer by selecting a representative subset (referred to as coresets), aiming to approximate the training efficacy of the full dataset with minimal storage overhead. However, mainstream Coreset Selection (CS) methods generally formulate the CS problem as a bi-level optimization problem that relies on numerous inner and outer iterations to solve, leading to substantial computational cost thus limiting their practical efficiency. In this paper, we aim to provide a more efficient selection logic and scheme for coreset construction. To this end, we first analyze the Mean Squared Error (MSE) between the buffer-trained model and the Bayes-optimal model through the perspective of localized error decomposition to investigate the contribution of samples from different regions to MSE suppression. Further theoretical and experimental analyses demonstrate that samples with high probability density play a dominant role in error suppression. Inspired by this, we propose the Probability Density-Aware Coreset (PDAC) method. PDAC leverages the Projected Gaussian Mixture (PGM) model to estimate each sample's joint density, enabling efficient density-prioritized buffer selection. Finally, we introduce the streaming Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm to enhance the adaptability of PGM parameters to streaming data, yielding Streaming PDAC (SPDAC) for streaming scenarios. Extensive comparative experiments show that our methods outperforms other baselines across various CL settings while ensuring favorable efficiency.

Latent action models (LAMs) aim to learn action-relevant changes from unlabeled videos by compressing changes between frames as latents. However, differences between video frames can be caused by controllable changes as well as exogenous noise, leading to an important concern -- do latents capture the changes caused by actions or irrelevant noise? This paper studies this issue analytically, presenting a linear model that encapsulates the essence of LAM learning, while being tractable.This provides several insights, including connections between LAM and principal component analysis (PCA), desiderata of the data-generating policy, and justification of strategies to encourage learning controllable changes using data augmentation, data cleaning, and auxiliary action-prediction. We also provide illustrative results based on numerical simulation, shedding light on the specific structure of observations, actions, and noise in data that influence LAM learning.

Spatial-temporal causal time series (STC-TS) involve region-specific temporal observations driven by causally relevant covariates and interconnected across geographic or network-based spaces. Existing methods often model spatial and temporal dynamics independently and overlook causality-driven probabilistic forecasting, limiting their predictive power. To address this, we propose STOAT (Spatial-Temporal Probabilistic Causal Inference Network), a novel framework for probabilistic forecasting in STC-TS. The proposed method extends a causal inference approach by incorporating a spatial relation matrix that encodes interregional dependencies (e.g. proximity or connectivity), enabling spatially informed causal effect estimation. The resulting latent series are processed by deep probabilistic models to estimate the parameters of the distributions, enabling calibrated uncertainty modeling. We further explore multiple output distributions (e.g., Gaussian, Student's-$t$, Laplace) to capture region-specific variability. Experiments on COVID-19 data across six countries demonstrate that STOAT outperforms state-of-the-art probabilistic forecasting models (DeepAR, DeepVAR, Deep State Space Model, etc.) in key metrics, particularly in regions with strong spatial dependencies. By bridging causal inference and geospatial probabilistic forecasting, STOAT offers a generalizable framework for complex spatial-temporal tasks, such as epidemic management.

Motion prediction, recently popularized under the term world models, refers to anticipating the future states of agents or the future evolution of a scene, which is rooted in human cognition to bridge perception and decision-making, enabling us to anticipate, adapt, and act within an ever-changing world. It lies at the core of intelligent autonomous systems, such as robotics and self-driving cars, to safely operate in dynamic and human-robot-mixed environments, and also informs broader time-series challenges. With advances in methods, representations, and datasets, the field has seen rapid progress, reflected in rapidly updated benchmark performance. However, when state-of-the-art methods are deployed in the real world, they are often found to struggle to generalize to open-world settings and fall short of deployment standards. This reveals a gap between reality and benchmarks, which are often idealized or ill-posed, and fail to capture real-world complexity. To address the pressing need for problem settings that better reflect real-world challenges and guide future research, this paper focuses on revisiting the generalization and applicability of motion prediction models, with an emphasis on robotics, autonomous driving, and human motion applications. We first provide a comprehensive taxonomy of motion prediction methods, covering representations, modelling methods, application domains, and evaluation protocols. We then revisit two fundamental problems: 1) how to push motion prediction models to be deployable to realistic deployment standards, where motion prediction does not act in a vacuum, but functions as one module of closed-loop autonomy stacks - it takes input from the localization and perception, and informs downstream planning and control.

Spatial transcriptomics is an emerging field that enables the identification of functional regions based on the spatial distribution of gene expression. Integrating this functional information present in transcriptomic data with structural data from histopathology images is an active research area with applications in identifying tumor substructures associated with cancer drug resistance. Current histopathology-spatial-transcriptomic region segmentation methods suffer due to either making spatial transcriptomics prominent by using histopathology features just to assist processing spatial transcriptomics data or using vanilla contrastive learning that make histopathology images prominent due to only promoting common features losing functional information. In both extremes, the model gets either lost in the noise of spatial transcriptomics or overly smoothed, losing essential information. Thus, we propose our novel architecture SENCA-st (Shared Encoder with Neighborhood Cross Attention) that preserves the features of both modalities. More importantly, it emphasizes regions that are structurally similar in histopathology but functionally different on spatial transcriptomics using cross-attention. We demonstrate the superior performance of our model that surpasses state-of-the-art methods in detecting tumor heterogeneity and tumor micro-environment regions, a clinically crucial aspect.

The complexity and opacity of neural networks (NNs) pose significant challenges, particularly in high-stakes fields such as healthcare, finance, and law, where understanding decision-making processes is crucial. To address these issues, the field of explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) has developed various methods aimed at clarifying AI decision-making, thereby facilitating appropriate trust and validating the fairness of outcomes. Among these methods, prototype-based explanations offer a promising approach that uses representative examples to elucidate model behavior. However, a critical gap exists regarding standardized benchmarks to objectively compare prototype-based XAI methods, especially in the context of time series data. This lack of reliable benchmarks results in subjective evaluations, hindering progress in the field. We aim to establish a robust framework, ProtoScore, for assessing prototype-based XAI methods across different data types with a focus on time series data, facilitating fair and comprehensive evaluations. By integrating the Co-12 properties of Nauta et al., this framework allows for effectively comparing prototype methods against each other and against other XAI methods, ultimately assisting practitioners in selecting appropriate explanation methods while minimizing the costs associated with user studies. All code is publicly available at https://github.com/HelenaM23/ProtoScore .