Statistical Learning
Discovering Operational Patterns Using Image-Based Convolutional Clustering and Composite Evaluation: A Case Study in Foundry Melting Processes
Ma, Zhipeng, Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard, Ma, Zheng Grace
Industrial process monitoring increasingly relies on sensor-generated time-series data, yet the lack of labels, high variability, and operational noise make it difficult to extract meaningful patterns using conventional methods. Existing clustering techniques either rely on fixed distance metrics or deep models designed for static data, limiting their ability to handle dynamic, unstructured industrial sequences. Addressing this gap, this paper proposes a novel framework for unsupervised discovery of operational modes in univariate time-series data using image-based convolutional clustering with composite internal evaluation. The proposed framework improves upon existing approaches in three ways: (1) raw time-series sequences are transformed into grayscale matrix representations via overlapping sliding windows, allowing effective feature extraction using a deep convolutional autoencoder; (2) the framework integrates both soft and hard clustering outputs and refines the selection through a two-stage strategy; and (3) clustering performance is objectively evaluated by a newly developed composite score, S_eva, which combines normalized Silhouette, Calinski-Harabasz, and Davies-Bouldin indices. Applied to over 3900 furnace melting operations from a Nordic foundry, the method identifies seven explainable operational patterns, revealing significant differences in energy consumption, thermal dynamics, and production duration. Compared to classical and deep clustering baselines, the proposed approach achieves superior overall performance, greater robustness, and domain-aligned explainability. The framework addresses key challenges in unsupervised time-series analysis, such as sequence irregularity, overlapping modes, and metric inconsistency, and provides a generalizable solution for data-driven diagnostics and energy optimization in industrial systems.
Physics informed Transformer-VAE for biophysical parameter estimation: PROSAIL model inversion in Sentinel-2 imagery
Mensah, Prince, Aderinto, Pelumi Victor, Yusuf, Ibrahim Salihu, Pretorius, Arnu
Accurate retrieval of vegetation biophysical variables from satellite imagery is crucial for ecosystem monitoring and agricultural management. In this work, we propose a physics-informed Transformer-VAE architecture to invert the PROSAIL radiative transfer model for simultaneous estimation of key canopy parameters from Sentinel-2 data. Unlike previous hybrid approaches that require real satellite images for self-supevised training. Our model is trained exclusively on simulated data, yet achieves performance on par with state-of-the-art methods that utilize real imagery. The Transformer-VAE incorporates the PROSAIL model as a differentiable physical decoder, ensuring that inferred latent variables correspond to physically plausible leaf and canopy properties. We demonstrate retrieval of leaf area index (LAI) and canopy chlorophyll content (CCC) on real-world field datasets (FRM4Veg and BelSAR) with accuracy comparable to models trained with real Sentinel-2 data. Our method requires no in-situ labels or calibration on real images, offering a cost-effective and self-supervised solution for global vegetation monitoring. The proposed approach illustrates how integrating physical models with advanced deep networks can improve the inversion of RTMs, opening new prospects for large-scale, physically-constrained remote sensing of vegetation traits.
RATTENTION: Towards the Minimal Sliding Window Size in Local-Global Attention Models
Wang, Bailin, Lan, Chang, Wang, Chong, Pang, Ruoming
Local-global attention models have recently emerged as compelling alternatives to standard Transformers, promising improvements in both training and inference efficiency. However, the crucial choice of window size presents a Pareto tradeoff: larger windows maintain performance akin to full attention but offer minimal efficiency gains in short-context scenarios, while smaller windows can lead to performance degradation. Current models, such as Gemma2 and Mistral, adopt conservative window sizes (e.g., 4096 out of an 8192 pretraining length) to preserve performance. This work investigates strategies to shift this Pareto frontier, enabling local-global models to achieve efficiency gains even in short-context regimes. Our core motivation is to address the intrinsic limitation of local attention -- its complete disregard for tokens outside the defined window. We explore RATTENTION, a variant of local attention integrated with a specialized linear attention mechanism designed to capture information from these out-of-window tokens. Pretraining experiments at the 3B and 12B scales demonstrate that RATTENTION achieves a superior Pareto tradeoff between performance and efficiency. As a sweet spot, RATTENTION with a window size of just 512 consistently matches the performance of full-attention models across diverse settings. Furthermore, the recurrent nature inherent in the linear attention component of RATTENTION contributes to enhanced long-context performance, as validated on the RULER benchmark. Crucially, these improvements do not compromise training efficiency; thanks to a specialized kernel implementation and the reduced window size, RATTENTION maintains training speeds comparable to existing state-of-the-art approaches. We open-sourced our Pallas kernels along with model codes to facilitate further research effort.
The Third Pillar of Causal Analysis? A Measurement Perspective on Causal Representations
Yao, Dingling, Huang, Shimeng, Cadei, Riccardo, Zhang, Kun, Locatello, Francesco
Causal reasoning and discovery, two fundamental tasks of causal analysis, often face challenges in applications due to the complexity, noisiness, and high-dimensionality of real-world data. Despite recent progress in identifying latent causal structures using causal representation learning (CRL), what makes learned representations useful for causal downstream tasks and how to evaluate them are still not well understood. In this paper, we reinterpret CRL using a measurement model framework, where the learned representations are viewed as proxy measurements of the latent causal variables. Our approach clarifies the conditions under which learned representations support downstream causal reasoning and provides a principled basis for quantitatively assessing the quality of representations using a new Test-based Measurement EXclusivity (T-MEX) score. We validate T-MEX across diverse causal inference scenarios, including numerical simulations and real-world ecological video analysis, demonstrating that the proposed framework and corresponding score effectively assess the identification of learned representations and their usefulness for causal downstream tasks.
PAST: A Primary-Auxiliary Spatio-Temporal Network for Traffic Time Series Imputation
Hu, Hanwen, Wen, Zimo, Qian, Shiyou, Co, Jian
Traffic time series imputation is crucial for the safety and reliability of intelligent transportation systems, while diverse types of missing data, including random, fiber, and block missing make the imputation task challenging. Existing models often focus on disentangling and separately modeling spatial and temporal patterns based on relationships between data points. However, these approaches struggle to adapt to the random missing positions, and fail to learn long-term and large-scale dependencies, which are essential in extensive missing conditions. In this paper, patterns are categorized into two types to handle various missing data conditions: primary patterns, which originate from internal relationships between data points, and auxiliary patterns, influenced by external factors like timestamps and node attributes. Accordingly, we propose the Primary-Auxiliary Spatio-Temporal network (PAST). It comprises a graph-integrated module (GIM) and a cross-gated module (CGM). GIM captures primary patterns via dynamic graphs with interval-aware dropout and multi-order convolutions, and CGM extracts auxiliary patterns through bidirectional gating on embedded external features. The two modules interact via shared hidden vectors and are trained under an ensemble self-supervised framework. Experiments on three datasets under 27 missing data conditions demonstrate that the imputation accuracy of PAST outperforms seven state-of-the-art baselines by up to 26.2% in RMSE and 31.6% in MAE.
Uncovering Causal Drivers of Energy Efficiency for Industrial Process in Foundry via Time-Series Causal Inference
Ma, Zhipeng, Jørgensen, Bo Nørregaard, Ma, Zheng Grace
Improving energy efficiency in industrial foundry processes is a critical challenge, as these operations are highly energy-intensive and marked by complex interdependencies among process variables. Correlation-based analyses often fail to distinguish true causal drivers from spurious associations, limiting their usefulness for decision-making. This paper applies a time-series causal inference framework to identify the operational factors that directly affect energy efficiency in induction furnace melting. Using production data from a Danish foundry, the study integrates time-series clustering to segment melting cycles into distinct operational modes with the PCMCI+ algorithm, a state-of-the-art causal discovery method, to uncover cause-effect relationships within each mode. Across clusters, robust causal relations among energy consumption, furnace temperature, and material weight define the core drivers of efficiency, while voltage consistently influences cooling water temperature with a delayed response. Cluster-specific differences further distinguish operational regimes: efficient clusters are characterized by stable causal structures, whereas inefficient ones exhibit reinforcing feedback loops and atypical dependencies. The contributions of this study are twofold. First, it introduces an integrated clustering-causal inference pipeline as a methodological innovation for analyzing energy-intensive processes. Second, it provides actionable insights that enable foundry operators to optimize performance, reduce energy consumption, and lower emissions.
Moving Pictures of Thought: Extracting Visual Knowledge in Charles S. Peirce's Manuscripts with Vision-Language Models
Pedretti, Carlo Teo, Picca, Davide, Rodighiero, Dario
Diagrams are crucial yet underexplored tools in many disciplines, demonstrating the close connection between visual representation and scholarly reasoning. However, their iconic form poses obstacles to visual studies, intermedial analysis, and text-based digital workflows. In particular, Charles S. Peirce consistently advocated the use of diagrams as essential for reasoning and explanation. His manuscripts, often combining textual content with complex visual artifacts, provide a challenging case for studying documents involving heterogeneous materials. In this preliminary study, we investigate whether Visual Language Models (VLMs) can effectively help us identify and interpret such hybrid pages in context. First, we propose a workflow that (i) segments manuscript page layouts, (ii) reconnects each segment to IIIF-compliant annotations, and (iii) submits fragments containing diagrams to a VLM. In addition, by adopting Peirce's semiotic framework, we designed prompts to extract key knowledge about diagrams and produce concise captions. Finally, we integrated these captions into knowledge graphs, enabling structured representations of diagrammatic content within composite sources.
Enhancing All-to-X Backdoor Attacks with Optimized Target Class Mapping
Wang, Lei, Tian, Yulong, Han, Hao, Xu, Fengyuan
Backdoor attacks pose severe threats to machine learning systems, prompting extensive research in this area. However, most existing work focuses on single-target All-to-One (A2O) attacks, overlooking the more complex All-to-X (A2X) attacks with multiple target classes, which are often assumed to have low attack success rates. In this paper, we first demonstrate that A2X attacks are robust against state-of-the-art defenses. We then propose a novel attack strategy that enhances the success rate of A2X attacks while maintaining robustness by optimizing grouping and target class assignment mechanisms. Our method improves the attack success rate by up to 28%, with average improvements of 6.7%, 16.4%, 14.1% on CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and Tiny-ImageNet, respectively. We anticipate that this study will raise awareness of A2X attacks and stimulate further research in this under-explored area.
RegionMarker: A Region-Triggered Semantic Watermarking Framework for Embedding-as-a-Service Copyright Protection
Yang, Shufan, Cheng, Zifeng, Jiang, Zhiwei, Yin, Yafeng, Wang, Cong, Ge, Shiping, Fu, Yuchen, Gu, Qing
Embedding-as-a-Service (EaaS) is an effective and convenient deployment solution for addressing various NLP tasks. Nevertheless, recent research has shown that EaaS is vulnerable to model extraction attacks, which could lead to significant economic losses for model providers. For copyright protection, existing methods inject watermark embeddings into text embeddings and use them to detect copyright infringement. However, current watermarking methods often resist only a subset of attacks and fail to provide \textit{comprehensive} protection. To this end, we present the region-triggered semantic watermarking framework called RegionMarker, which defines trigger regions within a low-dimensional space and injects watermarks into text embeddings associated with these regions. By utilizing a secret dimensionality reduction matrix to project onto this subspace and randomly selecting trigger regions, RegionMarker makes it difficult for watermark removal attacks to evade detection. Furthermore, by embedding watermarks across the entire trigger region and using the text embedding as the watermark, RegionMarker is resilient to both paraphrasing and dimension-perturbation attacks. Extensive experiments on various datasets show that RegionMarker is effective in resisting different attack methods, thereby protecting the copyright of EaaS.
Causal Inference, Biomarker Discovery, Graph Neural Network, Feature Selection
Lan, Chaowang, Wu, Jingxin, Yuan, Yulong, Liu, Chuxun, Kang, Huangyi, Liu, Caihua
Biomarker discovery from high-throughput transcriptomic data is crucial for advancing precision medicine. However, existing methods often neglect gene-gene regulatory relationships and lack stability across datasets, leading to conflation of spurious correlations with genuine causal effects. To address these issues, we develop a causal graph neural network (Causal-GNN) method that integrates causal inference with multi-layer graph neural networks (GNNs). The key innovation is the incorporation of causal effect estimation for identifying stable biomarkers, coupled with a GNN-based propensity scoring mechanism that leverages cross-gene regulatory networks. Experimental results demonstrate that our method achieves consistently high predictive accuracy across four distinct datasets and four independent classifiers. Moreover, it enables the identification of more stable biomarkers compared to traditional methods. Our work provides a robust, efficient, and biologically interpretable tool for biomarker discovery, demonstrating strong potential for broad application across medical disciplines.