Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has been an effective approach for improving Large Language Models' reasoning in domains such as coding and mathematics. Here, we apply RLVR methods towards forecasting future real-world events - a challenging task for RL due to the very noisy (and delayed) outcomes involved. Using a novel dataset of recent questions from a prediction market, and accompanying relevant news headlines, we show that a compact (14B) reasoning model can be trained to match or surpass the predictive accuracy of frontier models like o1, while greatly improving probabilistic calibration. The model's performance is also practically meaningful: in a Polymarket trading simulation, we estimate that its bets would have yielded a return on investment of over 10% across all questions in the test set. We detail and compare approaches used in training our model, including augmenting our training-data with synthetic prediction questions, guardrails for learning stability, and median prediction sampling at inference-time.

Addressing climate change requires coordinated policy efforts of nations worldwide. These efforts are informed by scientific reports, which rely in part on Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), prominent tools used to assess the economic impacts of climate policies. However, traditional IAMs optimize policies based on a single objective, limiting their ability to capture the trade-offs among economic growth, temperature goals, and climate justice. As a result, policy recommendations have been criticized for perpetuating inequalities, fueling disagreements during policy negotiations. We introduce Justice, the first framework integrating IAM with Multi-Objective Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MOMARL). By incorporating multiple objectives, Justice generates policy recommendations that shed light on equity while balancing climate and economic goals. Further, using multiple agents can provide a realistic representation of the interactions among the diverse policy actors. We identify equitable Pareto-optimal policies using our framework, which facilitates deliberative decision-making by presenting policymakers with the inherent trade-offs in climate and economic policy.

Sprawling locomotion in vertebrates, particularly salamanders, demonstrates how body undulation and spinal mobility enhance stability, maneuverability, and adaptability across complex terrains. While prior work has separately explored biologically inspired gait design or deep reinforcement learning (DRL), these approaches face inherent limitations: open-loop gait designs often lack adaptability to unforeseen terrain variations, whereas end-to-end DRL methods are data-hungry and prone to unstable behaviors when transferring from simulation to real robots. We propose a hybrid control framework that integrates Hildebrand's biologically grounded gait design with DRL, enabling a salamander-inspired quadruped robot to exploit active spinal joints for robust crawling motion. Our evaluation across multiple robot configurations in target-directed navigation tasks reveals that this hybrid approach systematically improves robustness under environmental uncertainties such as surface irregularities. By bridging structured gait design with learning-based methodology, our work highlights the promise of interdisciplinary control strategies for developing efficient, resilient, and biologically informed spinal actuation in robotic systems.

Conventional reinforcement learning (RL) approaches often struggle to learn effective policies under sparse reward conditions, necessitating the manual design of complex, task-specific reward functions. To address this limitation, reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has emerged as a promising strategy that complements hand-crafted rewards with human-derived evaluation signals. However, most existing RLHF methods depend on explicit feedback mechanisms such as button presses or preference labels, which disrupt the natural interaction process and impose a substantial cognitive load on the user. We propose a novel reinforcement learning from implicit human feedback (RLIHF) framework that utilizes non-invasive elec-troencephalography (EEG) signals, specifically error-related potentials (ErrPs), to provide continuous, implicit feedback without requiring explicit user intervention. The proposed method adopts a pre-trained decoder to trans-i form raw EEG signals into probabilistic reward components, enabling effective policy learning even in the presence of sparse external rewards. We evaluate our approach in a simulation environment built on the MuJoCo physics engine, using a Kinova Gen2 robotic arm to perform a complex pick-and-place task that requires avoiding obstacles while manipulating target objects. The results show that agents trained with decoded EEG feedback achieve performance comparable to those trained with dense, manually designed rewards.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) faces significant challenges in adaptive healthcare interventions, such as dementia care, where data is scarce, decisions require interpretability, and underlying patient-state dynamic are complex and causal in nature. In this work, we present a novel framework called Causal structure-aware Reinforcement Learning (CRL) that explicitly integrates causal discovery and reasoning into policy optimization. This method enables an agent to learn and exploit a directed acyclic graph (DAG) that describes the causal dependencies between human behavioral states and robot actions, facilitating more efficient, interpretable, and robust decision-making. We validate our approach in a simulated robot-assisted cognitive care scenario, where the agent interacts with a virtual patient exhibiting dynamic emotional, cognitive, and engagement states. The experimental results show that CRL agents outperform conventional model-free RL baselines by achieving higher cumulative rewards, maintaining desirable patient states more consistently, and exhibiting interpretable, clinically-aligned behavior. We further demonstrate that CRL's performance advantage remains robust across different weighting strategies and hyperparameter settings. In addition, we demonstrate a lightweight LLM-based deployment: a fixed policy is embedded into a system prompt that maps inferred states to actions, producing consistent, supportive dialogue without LLM finetuning. Our work illustrates the promise of causal reinforcement learning for human-robot interaction applications, where interpretability, adaptiveness, and data efficiency are paramount.

The robustness of Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USV) is crucial when facing unknown and complex marine environments, especially when heteroscedastic observational noise poses significant challenges to sensor-based navigation tasks. Recently, Distributional Reinforcement Learning (DistRL) has shown promising results in some challenging autonomous navigation tasks without prior environmental information. However, these methods overlook situations where noise patterns vary across different environmental conditions, hindering safe navigation and disrupting the learning of value functions. To address the problem, we propose DRIQN to integrate Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) with implicit quantile networks to optimize worst-case performance under natural environmental conditions. Leveraging explicit subgroup modeling in the replay buffer, DRIQN incorporates heterogeneous noise sources and target robustness-critical scenarios. Experimental results based on the risk-sensitive environment demonstrate that DRIQN significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving +13.51\% success rate, -12.28\% collision rate and +35.46\% for time saving, +27.99\% for energy saving, compared with the runner-up.

The paradigm of learning-based robotics holds immense promise, yet its translation to real-world applications is critically hindered by the sample inefficiency and brittleness of conventional model-free reinforcement learning algorithms. In this work, we address these challenges by introducing DREAMer-VXS, a model-based framework for Autonomous Ground Vehicle (AGV) exploration that learns to plan from imagined latent trajectories. Our approach centers on learning a comprehensive world model from partial and high-dimensional LiDAR observations. This world model is composed of a Convolutional Variational Autoencoder (VAE), which learns a compact representation of the environment's structure, and a Recurrent State-Space Model (RSSM), which models complex temporal dynamics. By leveraging this learned model as a high-speed simulator, the agent can train its navigation policy almost entirely in imagination. This methodology decouples policy learning from real-world interaction, culminating in a 90% reduction in required environmental interactions to achieve expert-level performance when compared to state-of-the-art model-free SAC baselines. The agent's behavior is guided by an actor-critic policy optimized with a composite reward function that balances task objectives with an intrinsic curiosity bonus, promoting systematic exploration of unknown spaces. We demonstrate through extensive simulated experiments that DREAMer-VXS not only learns orders of magnitude faster but also develops more generalizable and robust policies, achieving a 45% increase in exploration efficiency in unseen environments and superior resilience to dynamic obstacles.

Existing reinforcement learning (RL)-based post-training methods for large language models have advanced rapidly, yet their design has largely been guided by heuristics rather than systematic theoretical principles. This gap limits our understanding of the properties of the gradient estimators and the associated optimization algorithms, thereby constraining opportunities to improve training stability and overall performance. In this work, we provide a unified theoretical framework that characterizes the statistical properties of commonly used policy-gradient estimators under mild assumptions. Our analysis establishes unbiasedness, derives exact variance expressions, and yields an optimization-loss upper bound that enables principled reasoning about learning dynamics. Building on these results, we prove convergence guarantees and derive an adaptive learning-rate schedule governed by the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of gradients. We further show that the variance-optimal baseline is a gradient-weighted estimator, offering a new principle for variance reduction and naturally enhancing stability beyond existing methods. These insights motivate Optimal Baseline and Learning-Rate Policy Optimization (OBLR-PO), an algorithm that jointly adapts learning rates and baselines in a theoretically grounded manner. Experiments on Qwen3-4B-Base and Qwen3-8B-Base demonstrate consistent gains over existing policy optimization methods, validating that our theoretical contributions translate into practical improvements in large-scale post-training.

We study the problem of selecting a small, representative action subset from an extremely large action space shared across a family of reinforcement learning (RL) environments -- a fundamental challenge in applications like inventory management and recommendation systems, where direct learning over the entire space is intractable. Our goal is to identify a fixed subset of actions that, for every environment in the family, contains a near-optimal action, thereby enabling efficient learning without exhaustively evaluating all actions. This work extends our prior results for meta-bandits to the more general setting of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). We prove that our existing algorithm achieves performance comparable to using the full action space. This theoretical guarantee is established under a relaxed, non-centered sub-Gaussian process model, which accommodates greater environmental heterogeneity. Consequently, our approach provides a computationally and sample-efficient solution for large-scale combinatorial decision-making under uncertainty.

Traffic Signal Control (TSC) involves a challenging trade-off: classic heuristics are efficient but oversimplified, while Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) achieves high performance yet suffers from poor generalization and opaque policies. Online Large Language Models (LLMs) provide general reasoning but incur high latency and lack environment-specific optimization. To address these issues, we propose Temporal Policy Evolution for Traffic (\textbf{\method{}}), which uses LLMs as an evolution engine to derive specialized heuristic policies. The framework introduces two key modules: (1) Structured State Abstraction (SSA), converting high-dimensional traffic data into temporal-logical facts for reasoning; and (2) Credit Assignment Feedback (CAF), tracing flawed micro-decisions to poor macro-outcomes for targeted critique. Operating entirely at the prompt level without training, \method{} yields lightweight, robust policies optimized for specific traffic environments, outperforming both heuristics and online LLM actors.