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 Performance Analysis


A Problem-Oriented Taxonomy of Evaluation Metrics for Time Series Anomaly Detection

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Abstract--Time series anomaly detection is widely used in IoT and cyber-physical systems, yet its evaluation remains challenging due to diverse application objectives and heterogeneous metric assumptions. This study introduces a problem-oriented framework that reinterprets existing metrics based on the specific evaluation challenges they are designed to address, rather than their mathematical forms or output structures. We categorize over twenty commonly used metrics into six dimensions: (1) basic accuracy-driven evaluation, (2) timeliness-aware reward mechanisms, (3) tolerance to labeling imprecision, (4) penalties reflecting human-audit cost, (5) robustness against random or inflated scores, and (6) parameter-free comparability for cross-dataset benchmark-ing. Comprehensive experiments are conducted to examine metric behavior under genuine, random, and oracle detection scenarios. By comparing their resulting score distributions, we quantify each metric's discriminative ability--its capability to distinguish meaningful detections from random noise. The results show that while most event-level metrics exhibit strong separability, several widely used metrics (e.g., NAB, Point-Adjust) demonstrate limited resistance to random-score inflation. These findings reveal that metric suitability must be inherently task-dependent and aligned with the operational objectives of IoT applications. The proposed framework offers a unified analytical perspective for understanding existing metrics and provides practical guidance for selecting or developing more context-aware, robust, and fair evaluation methodologies for time series anomaly detection. He emergence of the Internet of Things (IoT) has accelerated digital transformation across numerous domains. Its defining characteristic lies in the large-scale deployment of intelligent and heterogeneous devices--such as sensors, actuators, and RFID systems--that are interconnected via the Internet to enable autonomous communication without human intervention [1]. Currently, more than 12 billion IoT devices are in operation, and this number is projected to reach 125 billion by 2030 [2]. Consequently, the volume of data generated by these devices continues to soar, with an expected total of 79.4 ZB by 2025 [3]. In industrial contexts, the integration of IoT technologies has driven the ongoing Industry 4.0 revolution, emphasizing connectivity, automation, and intelligence. Kaixiang Y ang, Jiarong Liu, Y upeng Song, and Y ujue Zhou are with the School of Artificial Intelligence, Y unnan University, Kunming 650091, China. Shuanghua Y ang is with Beijing Normal University - Hong Kong Baptist University, Zhuhai 519087, China. This work was supported in part by the Y unnan Fundamental Research Projects under Grant 202401AU070151, and in part by the Y unnan Provincial Science and Technology Talent and Platform Plan under Grant 202505AF350053.


Majority of the Bests: Improving Best-of-N via Bootstrapping

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Sampling multiple outputs from a Large Language Model (LLM) and selecting the most frequent (Self-consistency) or highest-scoring (Best-of-N) candidate is a popular approach to achieve higher accuracy in tasks with discrete final answers. Best-of-N (BoN) selects the output with the highest reward, and with perfect rewards, it often achieves near-perfect accuracy. With imperfect rewards from reward models, however, BoN fails to reliably find the correct answer and its performance degrades drastically. We consider the distribution of BoN's outputs and highlight that, although the correct answer does not usually have a probability close to one under imperfect rewards, it is often the most likely outcome. This suggests that the mode of this distribution can be more reliably correct than a sample from it. Based on this idea, we propose Majority-of-the-Bests (MoB), a novel selection mechanism that estimates the output distribution of BoN via bootstrapping and selects its mode. Experimental results across five benchmarks, three different base LLMs, and two reward models demonstrate consistent improvements over BoN in 25 out of 30 setups. We also provide theoretical results for the consistency of the bootstrapping. MoB serves as a simple, yet strong alternative to BoN and self-consistency, and more broadly, motivates further research in more nuanced selection mechanisms.


Improving Forecasts of Suicide Attempts for Patients with Little Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Ecological Momentary Assessment provides real-time data on suicidal thoughts and behaviors, but predicting suicide attempts remains challenging due to their rarity and patient heterogeneity. We show that single models fit to all patients perform poorly, while individualized models improve performance but still overfit to patients with limited data. To address this, we introduce Latent Similarity Gaussian Processes (LSGPs) to capture patient heterogeneity, enabling those with little data to leverage similar patients' trends. Preliminary results show promise: even without kernel-design, we outperform all but one baseline while offering a new understanding of patient similarity.


Copula Based Fusion of Clinical and Genomic Machine Learning Risk Scores for Breast Cancer Risk Stratification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Clinical and genomic models are both used to predict breast cancer outcomes, but they are often combined using simple linear rules that do not account for how their risk scores relate, especially at the extremes. Using the METABRIC breast cancer cohort, we studied whether directly modeling the joint relationship between clinical and genomic machine learning risk scores could improve risk stratification for 5-year cancer-specific mortality. We created a binary 5-year cancer-death outcome and defined two sets of predictors: a clinical set (demographic, tumor, and treatment variables) and a genomic set (gene-expression $z$-scores). We trained several supervised classifiers, such as Random Forest and XGBoost, and used 5-fold cross-validated predicted probabilities as unbiased risk scores. These scores were converted to pseudo-observations on $(0,1)^2$ to fit Gaussian, Clayton, and Gumbel copulas. Clinical models showed good discrimination (AUC 0.783), while genomic models had moderate performance (AUC 0.681). The joint distribution was best captured by a Gaussian copula (bootstrap $p=0.997$), which suggests a symmetric, moderately strong positive relationship. When we grouped patients based on this relationship, Kaplan-Meier curves showed clear differences: patients who were high-risk in both clinical and genomic scores had much poorer survival than those high-risk in only one set. These results show that copula-based fusion works in real-world cohorts and that considering dependencies between scores can better identify patient subgroups with the worst prognosis.


CLASH: A Benchmark for Cross-Modal Contradiction Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Contradictory multimodal inputs are common in real-world settings, yet existing benchmarks typically assume input consistency and fail to evaluate cross-modal contradiction detection - a fundamental capability for preventing hallucinations and ensuring reliability. We introduce CLASH, a novel benchmark for multimodal contradiction detection, featuring COCO images paired with contradictory captions containing controlled object-level or attribute-level contradictions. The samples include targeted questions evaluated in both multiple-choice and open-ended formats. The benchmark provides an extensive fine-tuning set filtered through automated quality checks, alongside a smaller human-verified diagnostic set. Our analysis of state-of-the-art models reveals substantial limitations in recognizing cross-modal conflicts, exposing systematic modality biases and category-specific weaknesses. Furthermore, we empirically demonstrate that targeted fine-tuning on CLASH substantially enhances conflict detection capabilities.


SpectraNet: FFT-assisted Deep Learning Classifier for Deepfake Face Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--Detecting deepfake images is crucial in combating misinformation. We present a lightweight, generalizable binary classification model based on EfficientNet-B6, fine-tuned with transformation techniques to address severe class imbalances. By leveraging robust preprocessing, oversampling, and optimization strategies, our model achieves high accuracy, stability, and generalization. While incorporating Fourier transform-based phase and amplitude features showed minimal impact, our proposed framework helps non-experts to effectively identify deepfake images, making significant strides toward accessible and reliable deepfake detection. Advances in synthetic data generation have introduced both opportunities and challenges, particularly with the rise of deep-fake technology.


Rethinking Plant Disease Diagnosis: Bridging the Academic-Practical Gap with Vision Transformers and Zero-Shot Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advances in deep learning have enabled significant progress in plant disease classification using leaf images. Much of the existing research in this field has relied on the PlantVillage dataset, which consists of well-centered plant images captured against uniform, uncluttered backgrounds. Although models trained on this dataset achieve high accuracy, they often fail to generalize to real-world field images, such as those submitted by farmers to plant diagnostic systems. This has created a significant gap between published studies and practical application requirements, highlighting the necessity of investigating and addressing this issue. In this study, we investigate whether attention-based architectures and zero-shot learning approaches can bridge the gap between curated academic datasets and real-world agricultural conditions in plant disease classification. We evaluate three model categories: Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Vision Transformers, and Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training (CLIP)-based zero-shot models. While CNNs exhibit limited robustness under domain shift, Vision Transformers demonstrate stronger generalization by capturing global contextual features. Most notably, CLIP models classify diseases directly from natural language descriptions without any task-specific training, offering strong adaptability and interpretability. These findings highlight the potential of zero-shot learning as a practical and scalable domain adaptation strategy for plant health diagnosis in diverse field environments.


Pre-Filtering Code Suggestions using Developer Behavioral Telemetry to Optimize LLM-Assisted Programming

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into code editors to provide AI-powered code suggestions. Y et many of these suggestions are ignored, resulting in wasted computation, increased latency, and unnecessary interruptions. We introduce a lightweight pre-filtering model that predicts the likelihood of suggestion acceptance before invoking the LLM, using only real-time developer telemetry such as typing speed, file navigation, and editing activity. Deployed in a production-grade Visual Studio Code plugin over four months of naturalistic use, our approach nearly doubled acceptance rates (18.4% 34.2%) while suppressing 35% of low-value LLM calls. These findings demonstrate that behavioral signals alone can meaningfully improve both user experience and system efficiency in LLM-assisted programming, highlighting the value of timing-aware, privacy-preserving adaptation mechanisms. The filter operates solely on pre-invocation editor telemetry and never inspects code or prompts. Large Language Models (LLMs) have rapidly transformed the landscape of software development by enabling intelligent code completions, refactorings, and in-editor conversations. These capabilities are increasingly integrated into modern development environments, particularly through plugins for popular IDEs such as Visual Studio Code. However, despite their power, LLM-driven code suggestions often fail to align with developer intent in real-time, leading to low acceptance rates, disrupted workflows, and wasted computational resources [1].


Enhancing Multi-Label Thoracic Disease Diagnosis with Deep Ensemble-Based Uncertainty Quantification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--The utility of deep learning models, such as CheXNet, in high stakes clinical settings is fundamentally constrained by their purely deterministic nature, failing to provide reliable measures of predictive confidence. Initial architectural development failed to stabilize performance and calibration using Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), yielding an unacceptable Expected Calibration Error (ECE) of 0.7588. This technical failure necessitated a rigorous architectural pivot to a high diversity, 9-member Deep Ensemble (DE). This resulting DE successfully stabilized performance and delivered superior reliability, achieving a State-of-the-Art (SOT A) average Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUROC) of 0.8559 and an average F1 Score of 0.3857. Crucially, the DE demonstrated superior calibration (Mean ECE of 0.0728 and Negative Log-Likelihood (NLL) of 0.1916) and enabled the reliable decomposition of total uncertainty into its Aleatoric (irreducible data noise) and Epistemic (reducible model knowledge) components, with a mean Epistemic Uncertainty (EU) of 0.0240. These results establish the Deep Ensemble as a trustworthy and explainable platform, transforming the model from a probabilistic tool into a reliable clinical decision support system. Deep learning has achieved remarkable diagnostic accuracy in medical imaging, exemplified by the CheXNet model, which reached radiologist-level performance for pneumonia detection and classification across 14 thoracic pathologies.


Unsupervised Multi-View Visual Anomaly Detection via Progressive Homography-Guided Alignment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Unsupervised visual anomaly detection from multi-view images presents a significant challenge: distinguishing genuine defects from benign appearance variations caused by viewpoint changes. Existing methods, often designed for single-view inputs, treat multiple views as a disconnected set of images, leading to inconsistent feature representations and a high false-positive rate. To address this, we introduce ViewSense-AD (VSAD), a novel framework that learns viewpoint-invariant representations by explicitly modeling geometric consistency across views. At its core is our Multi-View Alignment Module (MVAM), which leverages homography to project and align corresponding feature regions between neighboring views. We integrate MVAM into a View-Align Latent Diffusion Model (VALDM), enabling progressive and multi-stage alignment during the denoising process. This allows the model to build a coherent and holistic understanding of the object's surface from coarse to fine scales. Furthermore, a lightweight Fusion Refiner Module (FRM) enhances the global consistency of the aligned features, suppressing noise and improving discriminative power. Anomaly detection is performed by comparing multi-level features from the diffusion model against a learned memory bank of normal prototypes. Extensive experiments on the challenging RealIAD and MANTA datasets demonstrate that VSAD sets a new state-of-the-art, significantly outperforming existing methods in pixel, view, and sample-level visual anomaly proving its robustness to large viewpoint shifts and complex textures.