Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) method is arguably the most celebrated one used in online decision making with partial information feedback. Existing techniques for constructing confidence bounds are typically built upon various concentration inequalities, which thus lead to over-exploration. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric and data-dependent UCB algorithm based on the multiplier bootstrap. To improve its finite sample performance, we further incorporate second-order correction into the above construction. In theory, we derive both problem-dependent and problem-independent regret bounds for multi-armed bandits under a much weaker tail assumption than the standard sub-Gaussianity. Numerical results demonstrate significant regret reductions by our method, in comparison with several baselines in a range of multi-armed and linear bandit problems.

Differentially private synthetic data enables the sharing and analysis of sensitive datasets while providing rigorous privacy guarantees for individual contributors. A central challenge is to achieve strong utility guarantees for meaningful downstream analysis. Many existing methods ensure uniform accuracy over broad query classes, such as all Lipschitz functions, but this level of generality often leads to suboptimal rates for statistics of practical interest. Since many common data analysis queries exhibit smoothness beyond what worst-case Lipschitz bounds capture, we ask whether exploiting this additional structure can yield improved utility. We study the problem of generating $(\varepsilon,δ)$-differentially private synthetic data from a dataset of size $n$ supported on the hypercube $[-1,1]^d$, with utility guarantees uniformly for all smooth queries having bounded derivatives up to order $k$. We propose a polynomial-time algorithm that achieves a minimax error rate of $n^{-\min \{1, \frac{k}{d}\}}$, up to a $\log(n)$ factor. This characterization uncovers a phase transition at $k=d$. Our results generalize the Chebyshev moment matching framework of (Musco et al., 2025; Wang et al., 2016) and strictly improve the error rates for $k$-smooth queries established in (Wang et al., 2016). Moreover, we establish the first minimax lower bound for the utility of $(\varepsilon,δ)$-differentially private synthetic data with respect to $k$-smooth queries, extending the Wasserstein lower bound for $\varepsilon$-differential privacy in (Boedihardjo et al., 2024).

We study the Pareto frontier (optimal trade-off) between utility and separation, a fairness criterion requiring predictive independence from sensitive attributes conditional on the true outcome. Through an information-theoretic lens, we prove a characterization of the utility-separation Pareto frontier, establish its concavity, and thereby prove the increasing marginal cost of separation in terms of utility. In addition, we characterize the conditions under which this trade-off becomes strict, providing a guide for trade-off selection in practice. Based on the theoretical characterization, we develop an empirical regularizer based on conditional mutual information (CMI) between predictions and sensitive attributes given the true outcome. The CMI regularizer is compatible with any deep model trained via gradient-based optimization and serves as a scalar monitor of residual separation violations, offering tractable guarantees during training. Finally, numerical experiments support our theoretical findings: across COMPAS, UCI Adult, UCI Bank, and CelebA, the proposed method substantially reduces separation violations while matching or exceeding the utility of established baseline methods. This study thus offers a provable, stable, and flexible approach to enforcing separation in deep learning.

In sensitive applications involving relational datasets, protecting information about individual links from adversarial queries is of paramount importance. In many such settings, the available data are summarized solely through the degrees of the nodes in the network. We adopt the $β$ model, which is the prototypical statistical model adopted for this form of aggregated relational information, and study the problem of minimax-optimal parameter estimation under both local and central differential privacy constraints. We establish finite sample minimax lower bounds that characterize the precise dependence of the estimation risk on the network size and the privacy parameters, and we propose simple estimators that achieve these bounds up to constants and logarithmic factors under both local and central differential privacy frameworks. Our results provide the first comprehensive finite sample characterization of privacy utility trade offs for parameter estimation in $β$ models, addressing the classical graph case and extending the analysis to higher order hypergraph models. We further demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods through experiments on synthetic data and a real world communication network.

Ensuring factuality is essential for the safe use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains such as medicine and law. Conformal inference provides distribution-free guarantees, but existing approaches are either overly conservative, discarding many true-claims, or rely on adaptive error rates and simple linear models that fail to capture complex group structures. To address these challenges, we reformulate conformal inference in a multiplicative filtering setting, modeling factuality as a product of claim-level scores. Our method, Multi-LLM Adaptive Conformal Inference (MACI), leverages ensembles to produce more accurate factuality-scores, which in our experiments led to higher retention, while validity is preserved through group-conditional calibration. Experiments show that MACI consistently achieves user-specified coverage with substantially higher retention and lower time cost than baselines. Our repository is available at https://github.com/MLAI-Yonsei/MACI

In biomedical research, repeated measurements within each subject are often processed to remove artifacts and unwanted sources of variation. The resulting data are used to construct derived outcomes that act as proxies for scientific outcomes that are not directly observable. Although intra-subject processing is widely used, its impact on inter-subject statistical inference has not been systematically studied, and a principled framework for causal analysis in this setting is lacking. In this article, we propose a semiparametric framework for causal inference with derived outcomes obtained after intra-subject processing. This framework applies to settings with a modular structure, where intra-subject analyses are conducted independently across subjects and are followed by inter-subject analyses based on parameters from the intra-subject stage. We develop multiply robust estimators of causal parameters under rate conditions on both intra-subject and inter-subject models, which allows the use of flexible machine learning. We specialize the framework to a mediation setting and focus on the natural direct effect. For high dimensional inference, we employ a step-down procedure that controls the exceedance rate of the false discovery proportion. Simulation studies demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed approach. We apply our method to estimate the impact of stimulant medication on brain connectivity in children with autism spectrum disorder.

Flow-based methods have achieved significant success in various generative modeling tasks, capturing nuanced details within complex data distributions. However, few existing works have exploited this unique capability to resolve fine-grained structural details beyond generation tasks. This paper presents a flow-inspired framework for representation learning. First, we demonstrate that a rectified flow trained using independent coupling is zero everywhere at $t=0.5$ if and only if the source and target distributions are identical. We term this property the \emph{zero-flow criterion}. Second, we show that this criterion can certify conditional independence, thereby extracting \emph{sufficient information} from the data. Third, we translate this criterion into a tractable, simulation-free loss function that enables learning amortized Markov blankets in graphical models and latent representations in self-supervised learning tasks. Experiments on both simulated and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. The code reproducing our experiments can be found at: https://github.com/probabilityFLOW/zfe.

Multivariate time series in domains such as finance, climate science, and healthcare often exhibit long-term trends, seasonal patterns, and short-term fluctuations, complicating causal inference under non-stationarity and autocorrelation. Existing causal discovery methods typically operate on raw observations, making them vulnerable to spurious edges and misattributed temporal dependencies. We introduce a decomposition-based causal discovery framework that separates each time series into trend, seasonal, and residual components and performs component-specific causal analysis. Trend components are assessed using stationarity tests, seasonal components using kernel-based dependence measures, and residual components using constraint-based causal discovery. The resulting component-level graphs are integrated into a unified multi-scale causal structure. This approach isolates long- and short-range causal effects, reduces spurious associations, and improves interpretability. Across extensive synthetic benchmarks and real-world climate data, our framework more accurately recovers ground-truth causal structure than state-of-the-art baselines, particularly under strong non-stationarity and temporal autocorrelation.

Large-scale AI evaluation increasingly relies on aggregating binary judgments from $K$ annotators, including LLMs used as judges. Most classical methods, e.g., Dawid-Skene or (weighted) majority voting, assume annotators are conditionally independent given the true label $Y\in\{0,1\}$, an assumption often violated by LLM judges due to shared data, architectures, prompts, and failure modes. Ignoring such dependencies can yield miscalibrated posteriors and even confidently incorrect predictions. We study label aggregation through a hierarchy of dependence-aware models based on Ising graphical models and latent factors. For class-dependent Ising models, the Bayes log-odds is generally quadratic in votes; for class-independent couplings, it reduces to a linear weighted vote with correlation-adjusted parameters. We present finite-$K$ examples showing that methods based on conditional independence can flip the Bayes label despite matching per-annotator marginals. We prove separation results demonstrating that these methods remain strictly suboptimal as the number of judges grows, incurring nonvanishing excess risk under latent factors. Finally, we evaluate the proposed method on three real-world datasets, demonstrating improved performance over the classical baselines.