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A Theoretical Analysis of Detecting Large Model-Generated Time Series

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Motivated by the increasing risks of data misuse and fabrication, we investigate the problem of identifying synthetic time series generated by Time-Series Large Models (TSLMs) in this work. While there are extensive researches on detecting model generated text, we find that these existing methods are not applicable to time series data due to the fundamental modality difference, as time series usually have lower information density and smoother probability distributions than text data, which limit the discriminative power of token-based detectors. To address this issue, we examine the subtle distributional differences between real and model-generated time series and propose the contraction hypothesis, which states that model-generated time series, unlike real ones, exhibit progressively decreasing uncertainty under recursive forecasting. We formally prove this hypothesis under theoretical assumptions on model behavior and time series structure. Model-generated time series exhibit progressively concentrated distributions under recursive forecasting, leading to uncertainty contraction. We provide empirical validation of the hypothesis across diverse datasets. Building on this insight, we introduce the Uncertainty Contraction Estimator (UCE), a white-box detector that aggregates uncertainty metrics over successive prefixes to identify TSLM-generated time series. Extensive experiments on 32 datasets show that UCE consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, offering a reliable and generalizable solution for detecting model-generated time series.


ActiTect: A Generalizable Machine Learning Pipeline for REM Sleep Behavior Disorder Screening through Standardized Actigraphy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Isolated rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder (iRBD) is a major prodromal marker of $ฮฑ$-synucleinopathies, often preceding the clinical onset of Parkinson's disease, dementia with Lewy bodies, or multiple system atrophy. While wrist-worn actimeters hold significant potential for detecting RBD in large-scale screening efforts by capturing abnormal nocturnal movements, they become inoperable without a reliable and efficient analysis pipeline. This study presents ActiTect, a fully automated, open-source machine learning tool to identify RBD from actigraphy recordings. To ensure generalizability across heterogeneous acquisition settings, our pipeline includes robust preprocessing and automated sleep-wake detection to harmonize multi-device data and extract physiologically interpretable motion features characterizing activity patterns. Model development was conducted on a cohort of 78 individuals, yielding strong discrimination under nested cross-validation (AUROC = 0.95). Generalization was confirmed on a blinded local test set (n = 31, AUROC = 0.86) and on two independent external cohorts (n = 113, AUROC = 0.84; n = 57, AUROC = 0.94). To assess real-world robustness, leave-one-dataset-out cross-validation across the internal and external cohorts demonstrated consistent performance (AUROC range = 0.84-0.89). A complementary stability analysis showed that key predictive features remained reproducible across datasets, supporting the final pooled multi-center model as a robust pre-trained resource for broader deployment. By being open-source and easy to use, our tool promotes widespread adoption and facilitates independent validation and collaborative improvements, thereby advancing the field toward a unified and generalizable RBD detection model using wearable devices.


Adaptive EEG-based stroke diagnosis with a GRU-TCN classifier and deep Q-learning thresholding

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Rapid triage of suspected stroke needs accurate, bedside-deployable tools; EEG is promising but underused at first contact. We present an adaptive multitask EEG classifier that converts 32-channel signals to power spectral density features (Welch), uses a recurrent-convolutional network (GRU-TCN) to predict stroke type (healthy, ischemic, hemorrhagic), hemispheric lateralization, and severity, and applies a deep Q-network (DQN) to tune decision thresholds in real time. Using a patient-wise split of the UCLH Stroke EIT/EEG data set (44 recordings; about 26 acute stroke, 10 controls), the primary outcome was stroke-type performance; secondary outcomes were severity and lateralization. The baseline GRU-TCN reached 89.3% accuracy (F1 92.8%) for stroke type, about 96.9% (F1 95.9%) for severity, and about 96.7% (F1 97.4%) for lateralization. With DQN threshold adaptation, stroke-type accuracy increased to about 98.0% (F1 97.7%). We also tested robustness on an independent, low-density EEG cohort (ZJU4H) and report paired patient-level statistics. Analyses follow STARD 2015 guidance for diagnostic accuracy studies (index test: GRU-TCN+DQN; reference standard: radiology/clinical diagnosis; patient-wise evaluation). Adaptive thresholding shifts the operating point to clinically preferred sensitivity-specificity trade-offs, while integrated scalp-map and spectral visualizations support interpretability.


Representing LLMs in Prompt Semantic Task Space

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) achieve impressive results over various tasks, and ever-expanding public repositories contain an abundance of pre-trained models. Therefore, identifying the best-performing LLM for a given task is a significant challenge. Previous works have suggested learning LLM representations to address this. However, these approaches present limited scalability and require costly retraining to encompass additional models and datasets. Moreover, the produced representation utilizes distinct spaces that cannot be easily interpreted. This work presents an efficient, training-free approach to representing LLMs as linear operators within the prompts' semantic task space, thus providing a highly interpretable representation of the models' application. Our method utilizes closed-form computation of geometrical properties and ensures exceptional scalability and real-time adaptability to dynamically expanding repositories. We demonstrate our approach on success prediction and model selection tasks, achieving competitive or state-of-the-art results with notable performance in out-of-sample scenarios.


Towards Adapting Federated & Quantum Machine Learning for Network Intrusion Detection: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This survey explores the integration of Federated Learning (FL) with Network Intrusion Detection Systems (NIDS), with particular emphasis on deep learning and quantum machine learning approaches. FL enables collaborative model training across distributed devices while preserving data privacy-a critical requirement in network security contexts where sensitive traffic data cannot be centralized. Our comprehensive analysis systematically examines the full spectrum of FL architectures, deployment strategies, communication protocols, and aggregation methods specifically tailored for intrusion detection. We provide an in-depth investigation of privacy-preserving techniques, model compression approaches, and attack-specific federated solutions for threats including DDoS, MITM, and botnet attacks. The survey further delivers a pioneering exploration of Quantum FL (QFL), discussing quantum feature encoding, quantum machine learning algorithms, and quantum-specific aggregation methods that promise exponential speedups for complex pattern recognition in network traffic. Through rigorous comparative analysis of classical and quantum approaches, identification of research gaps, and evaluation of real-world deployments, we outline a concrete roadmap for industrial adoption and future research directions. This work serves as an authoritative reference for researchers and practitioners seeking to enhance privacy, efficiency, and robustness of federated intrusion detection systems in increasingly complex network environments, while preparing for the quantum-enhanced cybersecurity landscape of tomorrow.


Bridging Synthetic and Real-World Domains: A Human-in-the-Loop Weakly-Supervised Framework for Industrial Toxic Emission Segmentation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Industrial smoke segmentation is critical for air-quality monitoring and environmental protection but is often hampered by the high cost and scarcity of pixel-level annotations in real-world settings. We introduce CEDANet, a human-in-the-loop, class-aware domain adaptation framework that uniquely integrates weak, citizen-provided video-level labels with adversarial feature alignment. Specifically, we refine pseudo-labels generated by a source-trained segmentation model using citizen votes, and employ class-specific domain discriminators to transfer rich source-domain representations to the industrial domain. Comprehensive experiments on SMOKE5K and custom IJmond datasets demonstrate that CEDANet achieves an F1-score of 0.414 and a smoke-class IoU of 0.261 with citizen feedback, vastly outperforming the baseline model, which scored 0.083 and 0.043 respectively. This represents a five-fold increase in F1-score and a six-fold increase in smoke-class IoU. Notably, CEDANet with citizen-constrained pseudo-labels achieves performance comparable to the same architecture trained on limited 100 fully annotated images with F1-score of 0.418 and IoU of 0.264, demonstrating its ability to reach small-sampled fully supervised-level accuracy without target-domain annotations. Our research validates the scalability and cost-efficiency of combining citizen science with weakly supervised domain adaptation, offering a practical solution for complex, data-scarce environmental monitoring applications.


The Feasibility of Topic-Based Watermarking on Academic Peer Reviews

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into academic workflows, with many conferences and journals permitting their use for tasks such as language refinement and literature summarization. However, their use in peer review remains prohibited due to concerns around confidentiality breaches, hallucinated content, and inconsistent evaluations. As LLM-generated text becomes more indistinguishable from human writing, there is a growing need for reliable attribution mechanisms to preserve the integrity of the review process. In this work, we evaluate topic-based watermarking (TBW), a semantic-aware technique designed to embed detectable signals into LLM-generated text. We conduct a systematic assessment across multiple LLM configurations, including base, few-shot, and fine-tuned variants, using authentic peer review data from academic conferences. Our results show that TBW maintains review quality relative to non-watermarked outputs, while demonstrating robust detection performance under paraphrasing. These findings highlight the viability of TBW as a minimally intrusive and practical solution for LLM attribution in peer review settings.


Learning to Validate Generative Models: a Goodness-of-Fit Approach

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Generative models are increasingly central to scientific workflows, yet their systematic use and interpretation require a proper understanding of their limitations through rigorous validation. Classic approaches struggle with scalability, statistical power, or interpretability when applied to high-dimensional data, making it difficult to certify the reliability of these models in realistic, high-dimensional scientific settings. Here, we propose the use of the New Physics Learning Machine (NPLM), a learning based approach to goodness-of-fit testing inspired by the Neyman-Pearson construction, to test generative networks trained on high-dimensional scientific data. We demonstrate the performance of NPLM for validation in two benchmark cases: generative models trained on mixtures of Gaussian models with increasing dimensionality, and a public end-to-end generator for the Large Hadron Collider called FlashSim, trained on jet data, typical in the field of high-energy physics. We demonstrate that the NPLM can serve as a powerful validation method while also providing a means to diagnose sub-optimally modeled regions of the data.


Path Signatures Enable Model-Free Mapping of RNA Modifications

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Detecting chemical modifications on RNA molecules remains a key challenge in epitranscriptomics. Traditional reverse transcription-based sequencing methods introduce enzyme- and sequence-dependent biases and fragment RNA molecules, confounding the accurate mapping of modifications across the transcriptome. Nanopore direct RNA sequencing offers a powerful alternative by preserving native RNA molecules, enabling the detection of modifications at single-molecule resolution. However, current computational tools can identify only a limited subset of modification types within well-characterized sequence contexts for which ample training data exists. Here, we introduce a model-free computational method that reframes modification detection as an anomaly detection problem, requiring only canonical (unmodified) RNA reads without any other annotated data. For each nanopore read, our approach extracts robust, modification-sensitive features from the raw ionic current signal at a site using the signature transform, then computes an anomaly score by comparing the resulting feature vector to its nearest neighbors in an unmodified reference dataset. We convert anomaly scores into statistical p-values to enable anomaly detection at both individual read and site levels. Validation on densely-modified \textit{E. coli} rRNA demonstrates that our approach detects known sites harboring diverse modification types, without prior training on these modifications. We further applyied this framework to dengue virus (DENV) transcripts and mammalian mRNAs. For DENV sfRNA, it led to revealing a novel 2'-O-methylated site, which we validate orthogonally by qRT-PCR assays. These results demonstrate that our model-free approach operates robustly across different types of RNAs and datasets generated with different nanopore sequencing chemistries.


ConfGuard: A Simple and Effective Backdoor Detection for Large Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Backdoor attacks pose a significant threat to Large Language Models (LLMs), where adversaries can embed hidden triggers to manipulate LLM's outputs. Most existing defense methods, primarily designed for classification tasks, are ineffective against the autoregressive nature and vast output space of LLMs, thereby suffering from poor performance and high latency. To address these limitations, we investigate the behavioral discrepancies between benign and back-doored LLMs in output space. We identify a critical phenomenon which we term sequence lock: a backdoored model generates the target sequence with abnormally high and consistent confidence compared to benign generation. Building on this insight, we propose ConfGuard, a lightweight and effective detection method that monitors a sliding window of token confidences to identify sequence lock. Extensive experiments demonstrate ConfGuard achieves a near 100% true positive rate (TPR) and a negligible false positive rate (FPR) in the vast majority of cases. Crucially, the ConfGuard enables real-time detection almost without additional latency, making it a practical backdoor defense for real-world LLM deployments.