Online restless bandits extend classic contextual bandits by incorporating state transitions and budget constraints, representing each agent as a Markov Decision Process (MDP). This framework is crucial for finite-horizon strategic resource allocation, optimizing limited costly interventions for long-term benefits. However, learning the underlying MDP for each agent poses a major challenge in finite-horizon settings. To facilitate learning, we reformulate the problem as a scalable budgeted thresholding contextual bandit problem, carefully integrating the state transitions into the reward design and focusing on identifying agents with action benefits exceeding a threshold. We establish the optimality of an oracle greedy solution in a simple two-state setting, and propose an algorithm that achieves minimax optimal constant regret in the online multi-state setting with heterogeneous agents and knowledge of outcomes under no intervention. We numerically show that our algorithm outperforms existing online restless bandit methods, offering significant improvements in finite-horizon performance.

We introduce in-context denoising, a task that refines the connection between attention-based architectures and dense associative memory (DAM) networks, also known as modern Hopfield networks. Using a Bayesian framework, we show theoretically and empirically that certain restricted denoising problems can be solved optimally even by a single-layer transformer. We demonstrate that a trained attention layer processes each denoising prompt by performing a single gradient descent update on a context-aware DAM energy landscape, where context tokens serve as associative memories and the query token acts as an initial state. This one-step update yields better solutions than exact retrieval of either a context token or a spurious local minimum, providing a concrete example of DAM networks extending beyond the standard retrieval paradigm. Overall, this work solidifies the link between associative memory and attention mechanisms first identified by Ramsauer et al., and demonstrates the relevance of associative memory models in the study of in-context learning.

Flexible and scalable decentralized learning solutions are fundamentally important in the application of multi-agent systems. While several recent approaches introduce (ensembles of) kernel machines in the distributed setting, Bayesian solutions are much more limited. We introduce a fully decentralized, asymptotically exact solution to computing the random feature approximation of Gaussian processes. We further address the choice of hyperparameters by introducing an ensembling scheme for Bayesian multiple kernel learning based on online Bayesian model averaging. The resulting algorithm is tested against Bayesian and frequentist methods on simulated and real-world datasets.

The increased availability of data and computing resources has enabled researchers to successfully adopt machine learning (ML) techniques and make significant contributions in several engineering areas. ML and in particular deep learning (DL) algorithms have shown to perform better in tasks where a physical bottom-up description of the phenomenon is lacking and/or is mathematically intractable. Indeed, they take advantage of the observations of natural phenomena to automatically acquire knowledge and learn internal relations. Despite the historical model-based mindset, communications engineering recently started shifting the focus towards top-down data-driven learning models, especially in domains such as channel modeling and physical layer design, where in most of the cases no general optimal strategies are known. In this thesis, we aim at solving some fundamental open challenges in physical layer communications exploiting new DL paradigms. In particular, we mathematically formulate, under ML terms, classic problems such as channel capacity and optimal coding-decoding schemes, for any arbitrary communication medium. We design and develop the architecture, algorithm and code necessary to train the equivalent DL model, and finally, we propose novel solutions to long-standing problems in the field.

Ranking data are frequently obtained nowadays but there are still scarce methods for treating these data when temporally observed. The present paper contributes to this topic by proposing and developing novel models for handling time series of ranking data. We introduce a class of time-varying ranking models inspired by the Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. More specifically, the temporal dynamics are defined by the conditional distribution of the current ranking given the past rankings, which are assumed to follow a Mallows distribution, which implicitly depends on a distance. Then, autoregressive and feedback components are incorporated into the model through the conditional expectation of the associated distances. Theoretical properties of our ranking GARCH models such as stationarity and ergodicity are established. The estimation of parameters is performed via maximum likelihood estimation when data is fully observed. We develop a Monte Carlo Expectation-Maximisation algorithm to deal with cases involving missing data. Monte Carlo simulation studies are presented to study the performance of the proposed estimators under both non-missing and missing data scenarios. A real data application about the weekly ranking of professional tennis players from 2015 to 2019 is presented under our proposed ranking GARCH models.

The perspective of developing trustworthy AI for critical applications in science and engineering requires machine learning techniques that are capable of estimating their own uncertainty. In the context of regression, instead of estimating a conditional mean, this can be achieved by producing a predictive interval for the output, or to even learn a model of the conditional probability $p(y|x)$ of an output $y$ given input features $x$. While this can be done under parametric assumptions with, e.g. generalized linear model, these are typically too strong, and non-parametric models offer flexible alternatives. In particular, for scalar outputs, learning directly a model of the conditional cumulative distribution function of $y$ given $x$ can lead to more precise probabilistic estimates, and the use of proper scoring rules such as the weighted interval score (WIS) and the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) lead to better coverage and calibration properties. This paper introduces novel algorithms for learning probabilistic regression trees for the WIS or CRPS loss functions. These algorithms are made computationally efficient thanks to an appropriate use of known data structures - namely min-max heaps, weight-balanced binary trees and Fenwick trees. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate that the performance of our methods is competitive with alternative approaches. Additionally, our methods benefit from the inherent interpretability and explainability of trees. As a by-product, we show how our trees can be used in the context of conformal prediction and explain why they are particularly well-suited for achieving group-conditional coverage guarantees.

This paper presents Deep Dynamic Probabilistic Canonical Correlation Analysis (D2PCCA), a model that integrates deep learning with probabilistic modeling to analyze nonlinear dynamical systems. Building on the probabilistic extensions of Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), D2PCCA captures nonlinear latent dynamics and supports enhancements such as KL annealing for improved convergence and normalizing flows for a more flexible posterior approximation. D2PCCA naturally extends to multiple observed variables, making it a versatile tool for encoding prior knowledge about sequential datasets and providing a probabilistic understanding of the system's dynamics. Experimental validation on real financial datasets demonstrates the effectiveness of D2PCCA and its extensions in capturing latent dynamics.

In cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), learning effective policies is challenging when global rewards are sparse and delayed. This difficulty arises from the need to assign credit across both agents and time steps, a problem that existing methods often fail to address in episodic, long-horizon tasks. We propose Temporal-Agent Reward Redistribution $TAR^2$, a novel approach that decomposes sparse global rewards into agent-specific, time-step-specific components, thereby providing more frequent and accurate feedback for policy learning. Theoretically, we show that $TAR^2$ (i) aligns with potential-based reward shaping, preserving the same optimal policies as the original environment, and (ii) maintains policy gradient update directions identical to those under the original sparse reward, ensuring unbiased credit signals. Empirical results on two challenging benchmarks, SMACLite and Google Research Football, demonstrate that $TAR^2$ significantly stabilizes and accelerates convergence, outperforming strong baselines like AREL and STAS in both learning speed and final performance. These findings establish $TAR^2$ as a principled and practical solution for agent-temporal credit assignment in sparse-reward multi-agent systems.

Spin systems form an important class of undirected graphical models. For two Gibbs distributions $\mu$ and $\nu$ induced by two spin systems on the same graph $G = (V, E)$, we study the problem of approximating the total variation distance $d_{TV}(\mu,\nu)$ with an $\epsilon$-relative error. We propose a new reduction that connects the problem of approximating the TV-distance to sampling and approximate counting. Our applications include the hardcore model and the antiferromagnetic Ising model in the uniqueness regime, the ferromagnetic Ising model, and the general Ising model satisfying the spectral condition. Additionally, we explore the computational complexity of approximating the total variation distance $d_{TV}(\mu_S,\nu_S)$ between two marginal distributions on an arbitrary subset $S \subseteq V$. We prove that this problem remains hard even when both $\mu$ and $\nu$ admit polynomial-time sampling and approximate counting algorithms.

Learning informative representations of phylogenetic tree structures is essential for analyzing evolutionary relationships. Classical distance-based methods have been widely used to project phylogenetic trees into Euclidean space, but they are often sensitive to the choice of distance metric and may lack sufficient resolution. In this paper, we introduce phylogenetic variational autoencoders (PhyloVAEs), an unsupervised learning framework designed for representation learning and generative modeling of tree topologies. Leveraging an efficient encoding mechanism inspired by autoregressive tree topology generation, we develop a deep latent-variable generative model that facilitates fast, parallelized topology generation. Phylo-VAE combines this generative model with a collaborative inference model based on learnable topological features, allowing for high-resolution representations of phylogenetic tree samples. Extensive experiments demonstrate PhyloVAE's robust representation learning capabilities and fast generation of phylogenetic tree topologies. Phylogenetic trees are the foundational structure for describing the evolutionary processes among individuals or groups of biological entities. Reconstructing these trees based on collected biological sequences (e.g., DNA, RNA, protein) from observed species, also known as phylogenetic inference (Felsenstein, 2004), is an essential discipline of computational biology (Fitch, 1971; Felsenstein, 1981; Yang & Rannala, 1997; Ronquist et al., 2012). Large collections of trees obtained from these approaches (e.g., posterior samples from MCMC runs (Ronquist et al., 2012)), however, are often difficult to summarize or visualize due to the discrete and non-Euclidean nature of the tree topology space The classical approach to visualize and analyze distributions of phylogenetic trees is to calculate pairwise distances between the trees and project them into a plane using multidimensional scaling (MDS) (Amenta & Klingner, 2002; Hillis et al., 2005; Jombart et al., 2017). However, these approaches have the shortcoming that one can not map an arbitrary point in the visualization to a tree, and therefore do not form an actual visualization of the relevant tree space.