In this paper, we analyze the applicability of the Causal Identification algorithm to causal time series graphs with latent confounders. Since these graphs extend over infinitely many time steps, deciding whether causal effects across arbitrary time intervals are identifiable appears to require computation on graph segments of unbounded size. Even for deciding the identifiability of intervention effects on variables that are close in time, no bound is known on how many time steps in the past need to be considered. We give a first bound of this kind that only depends on the number of variables per time step and the maximum time lag of any direct or latent causal effect. More generally, we show that applying the Causal Identification algorithm to a constant-size segment of the time series graph is sufficient to decide identifiability of causal effects, even across unbounded time intervals.

REGULAR ARTICLE Sparse mixed linear modeling with anchor-based guidance for high-entropy alloy discovery Ryo Murakami a, Seiji Miura b, Akihiro Endo a and Satoshi Minamoto a a Materials Data Platform, Research Network and Facility Services Division, National Institute for Materials Science, Tsukuba 305-0044, Ibaraki, Japan b Division of Materials Science and Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido University, Sapporo 060-8628, Hokkaido, Japan ARTICLE HISTORY Compiled April 30, 2025 ABSTRACT High-entropy alloys have attracted attention for their exceptional mechanical properties and thermal stability. To solve this problem, machine learning techniques have been increasingly employed for property prediction and high-throughput screening. Nevertheless, highly accurate nonlinear models often suffer from a lack of interpretability, which is a major limitation. In this study, we focus on local data structures that emerge from the greedy search behavior inherent to experimental data acquisition. By introducing a linear and low-dimensional mixture regression model, we strike a balance between predictive performance and model interpretability. In addition, we develop an algorithm that simultaneously performs prediction and feature selection by considering multiple candidate descriptors. Through a case study on high-entropy alloys, this study introduces a method that combines anchor-guided clustering and sparse linear modeling to address biased data structures arising from greedy exploration in materials science. KEYWORDS Sparse modeling; Mixed linear model; Bayesian inference; Materials informatics; Data-driven science; High-entropy alloys 1. Introduction In recent years, high-entropy alloys (HEAs) have garnered attention as next-generation materials for their outstanding mechanical properties, thermal stability, and corrosion resistance [1,2]. Unlike conventional alloy designs, HEAs--also referred to as multi-principal element alloys--comprise multiple (typically five or more) principal elements, offering a high degree of chemical and structural freedom. This unique composition enables the exploration of novel properties unattainable in traditional materials systems.

A burgeoning area within reinforcement learning (RL) is the design of sequential decision-making agents centered around large language models (LLMs). While autonomous decision-making agents powered by modern LLMs could facilitate numerous real-world applications, such successes demand agents that are capable of data-efficient RL. One key obstacle to achieving data efficiency in RL is exploration, a challenge that we demonstrate many recent proposals for LLM agent designs struggle to contend with. Meanwhile, classic algorithms from the RL literature known to gracefully address exploration require technical machinery that can be challenging to operationalize in purely natural language settings. In this work, rather than relying on finetuning or in-context learning to coax LLMs into implicitly imitating a RL algorithm, we illustrate how LLMs can be used to explicitly implement an existing RL algorithm (Posterior Sampling for Reinforcement Learning) whose capacity for statistically-efficient exploration is already well-studied. We offer empirical results demonstrating how our LLM-based implementation of a known, data-efficient RL algorithm can be considerably more effective in natural language tasks that demand prudent exploration.

We assume that natural language has a property analogous to quantum mechanics, and the rationale for adopting this analogy comes not only from noticing that the meanings of natural language can be analogous described by in the form of superposition of states, but also from the fact that we notice that the representation of natural language symbols has a duality in which the symbols-meanings correspond to each other. At the same time, natural language processing (NLP) methods based on statistical implementations have been popular for decades and continue to evolve.It makes us wonder whether we can go further than statistical theory and consider introducing the relevant theories of quantum mechanics into the modeling of natural language. Meanwhile, in the last decade or so, NLP has generally adopted the approach of converting natural language symbols into some kind of mathematical representation for processing, and this approach, known as word embedding, has achieved surprisingly good performance in universal language processing tasks.We see that the technical idea of completely converting the symbols that make up natural language into a numerical representation for processing to build a universal language model(ULM) is highly feasible and possible. The experimental progress fed back from these two real-world applications motivates us to explore building natural language models based on quantum theory. Within the past century, quantum theory has become more and more perfect as mankind has studied the physical world in depth.

Making sense of the world and acting in it relies on building simplified mental representations that abstract away aspects of reality. This principle of cognitive mapping is universal to agents with limited resources. Living organisms, people, and algorithms all face the problem of forming functional representations of their world under various computing constraints. In this work, we explore the hypothesis that human resource-efficient planning may arise from representing the world as predictably structured. Building on the metaphor of concepts as programs, we propose that cognitive maps can take the form of generative programs that exploit predictability and redundancy, in contrast to directly encoding spatial layouts. We use a behavioral experiment to show that people who navigate in structured spaces rely on modular planning strategies that align with programmatic map representations. We describe a computational model that predicts human behavior in a variety of structured scenarios. This model infers a small distribution over possible programmatic cognitive maps conditioned on human prior knowledge of the world, and uses this distribution to generate resource-efficient plans. Our models leverages a Large Language Model as an embedding of human priors, implicitly learned through training on a vast corpus of human data. Our model demonstrates improved computational efficiency, requires drastically less memory, and outperforms unstructured planning algorithms with cognitive constraints at predicting human behavior, suggesting that human planning strategies rely on programmatic cognitive maps.

Exponential growth in scientific literature has heightened the demand for efficient evidence-based synthesis, driving the rise of the field of Automated Meta-analysis (AMA) powered by natural language processing and machine learning. This PRISMA systematic review introduces a structured framework for assessing the current state of AMA, based on screening 978 papers from 2006 to 2024, and analyzing 54 studies across diverse domains. Findings reveal a predominant focus on automating data processing (57%), such as extraction and statistical modeling, while only 17% address advanced synthesis stages. Just one study (2%) explored preliminary full-process automation, highlighting a critical gap that limits AMA's capacity for comprehensive synthesis. Despite recent breakthroughs in large language models (LLMs) and advanced AI, their integration into statistical modeling and higher-order synthesis, such as heterogeneity assessment and bias evaluation, remains underdeveloped. This has constrained AMA's potential for fully autonomous meta-analysis. From our dataset spanning medical (67%) and non-medical (33%) applications, we found that AMA has exhibited distinct implementation patterns and varying degrees of effectiveness in actually improving efficiency, scalability, and reproducibility. While automation has enhanced specific meta-analytic tasks, achieving seamless, end-to-end automation remains an open challenge. As AI systems advance in reasoning and contextual understanding, addressing these gaps is now imperative. Future efforts must focus on bridging automation across all meta-analysis stages, refining interpretability, and ensuring methodological robustness to fully realize AMA's potential for scalable, domain-agnostic synthesis.

Ensuring safe navigation in complex environments requires accurate real-time traversability assessment and understanding of environmental interactions relative to the robot`s capabilities. Traditional methods, which assume simplified dynamics, often require designing and tuning cost functions to safely guide paths or actions toward the goal. This process is tedious, environment-dependent, and not generalizable. To overcome these issues, we propose a novel learned perceptive Forward Dynamics Model (FDM) that predicts the robot`s future state conditioned on the surrounding geometry and history of proprioceptive measurements, proposing a more scalable, safer, and heuristic-free solution. The FDM is trained on multiple years of simulated navigation experience, including high-risk maneuvers, and real-world interactions to incorporate the full system dynamics beyond rigid body simulation. We integrate our perceptive FDM into a zero-shot Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI) planning framework, leveraging the learned mapping between actions, future states, and failure probability. This allows for optimizing a simplified cost function, eliminating the need for extensive cost-tuning to ensure safety. On the legged robot ANYmal, the proposed perceptive FDM improves the position estimation by on average 41% over competitive baselines, which translates into a 27% higher navigation success rate in rough simulation environments. Moreover, we demonstrate effective sim-to-real transfer and showcase the benefit of training on synthetic and real data. Code and models are made publicly available under https://github.com/leggedrobotics/fdm.

--Since the emergence of autonomous driving technology, it has advanced rapidly over the past decade. It is becoming increasingly likely that autonomous vehicles (A Vs) would soon coexist with human-driven vehicles (HVs) on the roads. Currently, safety and reliable decision-making remain significant challenges, particularly when A Vs are navigating lane changes and interacting with surrounding HVs. Therefore, precise estimation of the intentions of surrounding HVs can assist A Vs in making more reliable and safe lane change decision-making. This involves not only understanding their current behaviors but also predicting their future motions without any direct communication. However, distinguishing between the passing and yielding intentions of surrounding HVs still remains ambiguous. T o address the challenge, we propose a social intention estimation algorithm rooted in Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG), coupled with a decision-making framework employing Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) algorithms. T o evaluate the method's performance, the proposed framework can be tested and applied in a lane-changing scenario within a simulated environment. Furthermore, the experiment results demonstrate how our approach enhances the ability of A Vs to navigate lane changes safely and efficiently on roads. UTONOMOUS driving decision-making is a critical component of autonomous driving systems, aiming to make reasonable and safe driving decisions based on environmental perception [1]. The decision-making process not only needs to consider the kinematic and dynamic constraints of the vehicle but also needs to comply with traffic rules, evaluate potential risks, and coexist safely with other traffic participants in complex driving scenarios, such as executing lane changes on highways and navigating intersections, as illustrated in Figure 1. Executing lane changes on the highway remains a formidable challenge for A Vs in the real world, primarily due to environmental complexity and uncertainty. Jing Wang, Y an Jin are with the School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, United Kingdom (email: jwang61@qub.ac.uk, y.jin@qub.ac.uk)

We study the complexity of satisfiability problems in probabilistic and causal reasoning. Given random variables $X_1, X_2,\ldots$ over finite domains, the basic terms are probabilities of propositional formulas over atomic events $X_i = x_i$, such as $P(X_1 = x_1)$ or $P(X_1 = x_1 \vee X_2 = x_2)$. The basic terms can be combined using addition (yielding linear terms) or multiplication (polynomial terms). The probabilistic satisfiability problem asks whether a joint probability distribution satisfies a Boolean combination of (in)equalities over such terms. Fagin et al. (1990) showed that for basic and linear terms, this problem is NP-complete, making it no harder than Boolean satisfiability, while Mossé et al. (2022) proved that for polynomial terms, it is complete for the existential theory of the reals. Pearl's Causal Hierarchy (PCH) extends the probabilistic setting with interventional and counterfactual reasoning, enriching the expressiveness of languages. However, Mossé et al. (2022) found that satisfiability complexity remains unchanged. Van der Zander et al. (2023) showed that introducing a marginalization operator to languages induces a significant increase in complexity. We extend this line of work by adding two new dimensions to the problem by constraining the models. First, we fix the graph structure of the underlying structural causal model, motivated by settings like Pearl's do-calculus, and give a nearly complete landscape across different arithmetics and PCH levels. Second, we study small models. While earlier work showed that satisfiable instances admit polynomial-size models, this is no longer guaranteed with compact marginalization. We characterize the complexities of satisfiability under small-model constraints across different settings.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has demonstrated excellent decision-making potential in platoon coordination problems. However, due to the variability of coordination goals, the complexity of the decision problem, and the time-consumption of trial-and-error in manual design, finding a well performance reward function to guide RL training to solve complex platoon coordination problems remains challenging. In this paper, we formally define the Platoon Coordination Reward Design Problem (PCRDP), extending the RL-based cooperative platoon coordination problem to incorporate automated reward function generation. To address PCRDP, we propose a Large Language Model (LLM)-based Platoon coordination Reward Design (PCRD) framework, which systematically automates reward function discovery through LLM-driven initialization and iterative optimization. In this method, LLM first initializes reward functions based on environment code and task requirements with an Analysis and Initial Reward (AIR) module, and then iteratively optimizes them based on training feedback with an evolutionary module. The AIR module guides LLM to deepen their understanding of code and tasks through a chain of thought, effectively mitigating hallucination risks in code generation. The evolutionary module fine-tunes and reconstructs the reward function, achieving a balance between exploration diversity and convergence stability for training. To validate our approach, we establish six challenging coordination scenarios with varying complexity levels within the Yangtze River Delta transportation network simulation. Comparative experimental results demonstrate that RL agents utilizing PCRD-generated reward functions consistently outperform human-engineered reward functions, achieving an average of 10\% higher performance metrics in all scenarios.