Learning Graphical Models
Universal language model with the intervention of quantum theory
We assume that natural language has a property analogous to quantum mechanics, and the rationale for adopting this analogy comes not only from noticing that the meanings of natural language can be analogous described by in the form of superposition of states, but also from the fact that we notice that the representation of natural language symbols has a duality in which the symbols-meanings correspond to each other. At the same time, natural language processing (NLP) methods based on statistical implementations have been popular for decades and continue to evolve.It makes us wonder whether we can go further than statistical theory and consider introducing the relevant theories of quantum mechanics into the modeling of natural language. Meanwhile, in the last decade or so, NLP has generally adopted the approach of converting natural language symbols into some kind of mathematical representation for processing, and this approach, known as word embedding, has achieved surprisingly good performance in universal language processing tasks.We see that the technical idea of completely converting the symbols that make up natural language into a numerical representation for processing to build a universal language model(ULM) is highly feasible and possible. The experimental progress fed back from these two real-world applications motivates us to explore building natural language models based on quantum theory. Within the past century, quantum theory has become more and more perfect as mankind has studied the physical world in depth.
Cognitive maps are generative programs
Kryven, Marta, Wyeth, Cole, Curtis, Aidan, Ellis, Kevin
Making sense of the world and acting in it relies on building simplified mental representations that abstract away aspects of reality. This principle of cognitive mapping is universal to agents with limited resources. Living organisms, people, and algorithms all face the problem of forming functional representations of their world under various computing constraints. In this work, we explore the hypothesis that human resource-efficient planning may arise from representing the world as predictably structured. Building on the metaphor of concepts as programs, we propose that cognitive maps can take the form of generative programs that exploit predictability and redundancy, in contrast to directly encoding spatial layouts. We use a behavioral experiment to show that people who navigate in structured spaces rely on modular planning strategies that align with programmatic map representations. We describe a computational model that predicts human behavior in a variety of structured scenarios. This model infers a small distribution over possible programmatic cognitive maps conditioned on human prior knowledge of the world, and uses this distribution to generate resource-efficient plans. Our models leverages a Large Language Model as an embedding of human priors, implicitly learned through training on a vast corpus of human data. Our model demonstrates improved computational efficiency, requires drastically less memory, and outperforms unstructured planning algorithms with cognitive constraints at predicting human behavior, suggesting that human planning strategies rely on programmatic cognitive maps.
Transforming Evidence Synthesis: A Systematic Review of the Evolution of Automated Meta-Analysis in the Age of AI
Li, Lingbo, Mathrani, Anuradha, Susnjak, Teo
Exponential growth in scientific literature has heightened the demand for efficient evidence-based synthesis, driving the rise of the field of Automated Meta-analysis (AMA) powered by natural language processing and machine learning. This PRISMA systematic review introduces a structured framework for assessing the current state of AMA, based on screening 978 papers from 2006 to 2024, and analyzing 54 studies across diverse domains. Findings reveal a predominant focus on automating data processing (57%), such as extraction and statistical modeling, while only 17% address advanced synthesis stages. Just one study (2%) explored preliminary full-process automation, highlighting a critical gap that limits AMA's capacity for comprehensive synthesis. Despite recent breakthroughs in large language models (LLMs) and advanced AI, their integration into statistical modeling and higher-order synthesis, such as heterogeneity assessment and bias evaluation, remains underdeveloped. This has constrained AMA's potential for fully autonomous meta-analysis. From our dataset spanning medical (67%) and non-medical (33%) applications, we found that AMA has exhibited distinct implementation patterns and varying degrees of effectiveness in actually improving efficiency, scalability, and reproducibility. While automation has enhanced specific meta-analytic tasks, achieving seamless, end-to-end automation remains an open challenge. As AI systems advance in reasoning and contextual understanding, addressing these gaps is now imperative. Future efforts must focus on bridging automation across all meta-analysis stages, refining interpretability, and ensuring methodological robustness to fully realize AMA's potential for scalable, domain-agnostic synthesis.
Learned Perceptive Forward Dynamics Model for Safe and Platform-aware Robotic Navigation
Roth, Pascal, Frey, Jonas, Cadena, Cesar, Hutter, Marco
Ensuring safe navigation in complex environments requires accurate real-time traversability assessment and understanding of environmental interactions relative to the robot`s capabilities. Traditional methods, which assume simplified dynamics, often require designing and tuning cost functions to safely guide paths or actions toward the goal. This process is tedious, environment-dependent, and not generalizable. To overcome these issues, we propose a novel learned perceptive Forward Dynamics Model (FDM) that predicts the robot`s future state conditioned on the surrounding geometry and history of proprioceptive measurements, proposing a more scalable, safer, and heuristic-free solution. The FDM is trained on multiple years of simulated navigation experience, including high-risk maneuvers, and real-world interactions to incorporate the full system dynamics beyond rigid body simulation. We integrate our perceptive FDM into a zero-shot Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI) planning framework, leveraging the learned mapping between actions, future states, and failure probability. This allows for optimizing a simplified cost function, eliminating the need for extensive cost-tuning to ensure safety. On the legged robot ANYmal, the proposed perceptive FDM improves the position estimation by on average 41% over competitive baselines, which translates into a 27% higher navigation success rate in rough simulation environments. Moreover, we demonstrate effective sim-to-real transfer and showcase the benefit of training on synthetic and real data. Code and models are made publicly available under https://github.com/leggedrobotics/fdm.
Socially-Aware Autonomous Driving: Inferring Yielding Intentions for Safer Interactions
Wang, Jing, Jin, Yan, Taghavifar, Hamid, Ding, Fei, Wei, Chongfeng
--Since the emergence of autonomous driving technology, it has advanced rapidly over the past decade. It is becoming increasingly likely that autonomous vehicles (A Vs) would soon coexist with human-driven vehicles (HVs) on the roads. Currently, safety and reliable decision-making remain significant challenges, particularly when A Vs are navigating lane changes and interacting with surrounding HVs. Therefore, precise estimation of the intentions of surrounding HVs can assist A Vs in making more reliable and safe lane change decision-making. This involves not only understanding their current behaviors but also predicting their future motions without any direct communication. However, distinguishing between the passing and yielding intentions of surrounding HVs still remains ambiguous. T o address the challenge, we propose a social intention estimation algorithm rooted in Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG), coupled with a decision-making framework employing Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) algorithms. T o evaluate the method's performance, the proposed framework can be tested and applied in a lane-changing scenario within a simulated environment. Furthermore, the experiment results demonstrate how our approach enhances the ability of A Vs to navigate lane changes safely and efficiently on roads. UTONOMOUS driving decision-making is a critical component of autonomous driving systems, aiming to make reasonable and safe driving decisions based on environmental perception [1]. The decision-making process not only needs to consider the kinematic and dynamic constraints of the vehicle but also needs to comply with traffic rules, evaluate potential risks, and coexist safely with other traffic participants in complex driving scenarios, such as executing lane changes on highways and navigating intersections, as illustrated in Figure 1. Executing lane changes on the highway remains a formidable challenge for A Vs in the real world, primarily due to environmental complexity and uncertainty. Jing Wang, Y an Jin are with the School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, United Kingdom (email: jwang61@qub.ac.uk, y.jin@qub.ac.uk)
Probabilistic and Causal Satisfiability: Constraining the Model
Bläser, Markus, Dörfler, Julian, Liśkiewicz, Maciej, van der Zander, Benito
We study the complexity of satisfiability problems in probabilistic and causal reasoning. Given random variables $X_1, X_2,\ldots$ over finite domains, the basic terms are probabilities of propositional formulas over atomic events $X_i = x_i$, such as $P(X_1 = x_1)$ or $P(X_1 = x_1 \vee X_2 = x_2)$. The basic terms can be combined using addition (yielding linear terms) or multiplication (polynomial terms). The probabilistic satisfiability problem asks whether a joint probability distribution satisfies a Boolean combination of (in)equalities over such terms. Fagin et al. (1990) showed that for basic and linear terms, this problem is NP-complete, making it no harder than Boolean satisfiability, while Mossé et al. (2022) proved that for polynomial terms, it is complete for the existential theory of the reals. Pearl's Causal Hierarchy (PCH) extends the probabilistic setting with interventional and counterfactual reasoning, enriching the expressiveness of languages. However, Mossé et al. (2022) found that satisfiability complexity remains unchanged. Van der Zander et al. (2023) showed that introducing a marginalization operator to languages induces a significant increase in complexity. We extend this line of work by adding two new dimensions to the problem by constraining the models. First, we fix the graph structure of the underlying structural causal model, motivated by settings like Pearl's do-calculus, and give a nearly complete landscape across different arithmetics and PCH levels. Second, we study small models. While earlier work showed that satisfiable instances admit polynomial-size models, this is no longer guaranteed with compact marginalization. We characterize the complexities of satisfiability under small-model constraints across different settings.
An Automated Reinforcement Learning Reward Design Framework with Large Language Model for Cooperative Platoon Coordination
Wei, Dixiao, Yi, Peng, Lei, Jinlong, Hong, Yiguang, Du, Yuchuan
Reinforcement Learning (RL) has demonstrated excellent decision-making potential in platoon coordination problems. However, due to the variability of coordination goals, the complexity of the decision problem, and the time-consumption of trial-and-error in manual design, finding a well performance reward function to guide RL training to solve complex platoon coordination problems remains challenging. In this paper, we formally define the Platoon Coordination Reward Design Problem (PCRDP), extending the RL-based cooperative platoon coordination problem to incorporate automated reward function generation. To address PCRDP, we propose a Large Language Model (LLM)-based Platoon coordination Reward Design (PCRD) framework, which systematically automates reward function discovery through LLM-driven initialization and iterative optimization. In this method, LLM first initializes reward functions based on environment code and task requirements with an Analysis and Initial Reward (AIR) module, and then iteratively optimizes them based on training feedback with an evolutionary module. The AIR module guides LLM to deepen their understanding of code and tasks through a chain of thought, effectively mitigating hallucination risks in code generation. The evolutionary module fine-tunes and reconstructs the reward function, achieving a balance between exploration diversity and convergence stability for training. To validate our approach, we establish six challenging coordination scenarios with varying complexity levels within the Yangtze River Delta transportation network simulation. Comparative experimental results demonstrate that RL agents utilizing PCRD-generated reward functions consistently outperform human-engineered reward functions, achieving an average of 10\% higher performance metrics in all scenarios.
Observational Learning with a Budget
Wu, Shuo, Poojary, Pawan, Berry, Randall
--We consider a model of Bayesian observational learning in which a sequence of agents receives a private signal about an underlying binary state of the world. Each agent makes a decision based on its own signal and its observations of previous agents. A central planner seeks to improve the accuracy of these signals by allocating a limited budget to enhance signal quality across agents. We formulate and analyze the budget allocation problem and propose two optimal allocation strategies. At least one of these strategies is shown to maximize the probability of achieving a correct information cascade. I NTRODUCTION Consider that an item, which could either be of a "good" or a "bad" quality, is up for sale in a market where agents arrive sequentially and decide whether to buy the item, with their choice serving as a recommendation for later agents. While the quality of the item is unknown to the agents, every agent has its own prior knowledge of the item's quality in the form of its private belief. Each agent then makes a payoff optimal decision based on its own prior knowledge and by observing the choices of its predecessors. Such models of "observational learning" were first studied by [1]-[3] under a Bayesian learning framework wherein each agent's prior knowledge is in the form of a privately observed signal about the pay-off-relevant state of the world, which in this case is the item's quality, and is generated from a commonly known probability distribution. A salient feature of such models is the emergence of information cascades or herding, i.e., at some point, it is optimal for an agent to ignore its own private signal and follow the actions of the past agents. Subsequent agents then follow suit due to their homogeneity.
Generative Models for Fast Simulation of Cherenkov Detectors at the Electron-Ion Collider
Giroux, James, Martinez, Michael, Fanelli, Cristiano
The integration of Deep Learning (DL) into experimental nuclear and particle physics has driven significant progress in simulation and reconstruction workflows. However, traditional simulation frameworks such as Geant4 remain computationally intensive, especially for Cherenkov detectors, where simulating optical photon transport through complex geometries and reflective surfaces introduces a major bottleneck. To address this, we present an open, standalone fast simulation tool for Detection of Internally Reflected Cherenkov Light (DIRC) detectors, with a focus on the High-Performance DIRC (hpDIRC) at the future Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). Our framework incorporates a suite of generative models tailored to accelerate particle identification (PID) tasks by offering a scalable, GPU-accelerated alternative to full Geant4 -based simulations. Designed with accessibility in mind, our simulation package enables both DL researchers and physicists to efficiently generate high-fidelity large-scale datasets on demand, without relying on complex traditional simulation stacks. This flexibility supports the development and benchmarking of novel DL-driven PID methods. Moreover, this fast simulation pipeline represents a critical step toward enabling EIC-wide PID strategies that depend on virtually unlimited simulated samples, spanning the full acceptance of the hpDIRC.
Modeling Regime Structure and Informational Drivers of Stock Market Volatility via the Financial Chaos Index
This paper investigates the structural dynamics of stock market volatility through the Financial Chaos Index, a tensor- and eigenvalue-based measure designed to capture realized volatility via mutual fluctuations among asset prices. Motivated by empirical evidence of regime-dependent volatility behavior and perceptual time dilation during financial crises, we develop a regime-switching framework based on the Modified Lognormal Power-Law distribution. Analysis of the FCIX from January 1990 to December 2023 identifies three distinct market regimes, low-chaos, intermediate-chaos, and high-chaos, each characterized by differing levels of systemic stress, statistical dispersion and persistence characteristics. Building upon the segmented regime structure, we further examine the informational forces that shape forward-looking market expectations. Using sentiment-based predictors derived from the Equity Market Volatility tracker, we employ an elastic net regression model to forecast implied volatility, as proxied by the VIX index. Our findings indicate that shifts in macroeconomic, financial, policy, and geopolitical uncertainty exhibit strong predictive power for volatility dynamics across regimes. Together, these results offer a unified empirical perspective on how systemic uncertainty governs both the realized evolution of financial markets and the anticipatory behavior embedded in implied volatility measures.