Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) offer a computationally scalable framework for generative modeling, supporting exact and efficient inference of a wide range of probabilistic queries. While recent advances have significantly improved the expressiveness and scalability of PCs, effectively training their parameters remains a challenge. In particular, a widely used optimization method, full-batch Expectation-Maximization (EM), requires processing the entire dataset before performing a single update, making it ineffective for large datasets. Although empirical extensions to the mini-batch setting, as well as gradient-based mini-batch algorithms, converge faster than full-batch EM, they generally underperform in terms of final likelihood. We investigate this gap by establishing a novel theoretical connection between these practical algorithms and the general EM objective. Our analysis reveals a fundamental issue that existing mini-batch EM and gradient-based methods fail to properly regularize distribution changes, causing each update to effectively ``overfit'' the current mini-batch. Motivated by this insight, we introduce anemone, a new mini-batch EM algorithm for PCs. Anemone applies an implicit adaptive learning rate to each parameter, scaled by how much it contributes to the likelihood of the current batch. Across extensive experiments on language, image, and DNA datasets, anemone consistently outperforms existing optimizers in both convergence speed and final performance.

Uncertainty quantification plays an important role in achieving trustworthy and reliable learning-based computational imaging. Recent advances in generative modeling and Bayesian neural networks have enabled the development of uncertainty-aware image reconstruction methods. Current generative model-based methods seek to quantify the inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty on the underlying image for given measurements by learning to sample from the posterior distribution of the underlying image. On the other hand, Bayesian neural network-based approaches aim to quantify the model (epistemic) uncertainty on the parameters of a deep neural network-based reconstruction method by approximating the posterior distribution of those parameters. Unfortunately, an ongoing need for an inversion method that can jointly quantify complex aleatoric uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty patterns still persists. In this paper, we present a scalable framework that can quantify both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. The proposed framework accepts an existing generative model-based posterior sampling method as an input and introduces an epistemic uncertainty quantification capability through Bayesian neural networks with latent variables and deep ensembling. Furthermore, by leveraging the conformal prediction methodology, the proposed framework can be easily calibrated to ensure rigorous uncertainty quantification. We evaluated the proposed framework on magnetic resonance imaging, computed tomography, and image inpainting problems and showed that the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty estimates produced by the proposed framework display the characteristic features of true epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. Furthermore, our results demonstrated that the use of conformal prediction on top of the proposed framework enables marginal coverage guarantees consistent with frequentist principles.

This study presents a novel small-area estimation framework to enhance urban transportation planning through detailed characterization of travel behavior. Our approach improves on the four-step travel model by employing publicly available microdata files and machine learning methods to predict travel behavior for a representative, synthetic population at small geographic areas. This approach enables high-resolution estimation of trip generation, trip distribution, mode choice, and route assignment. Validation using ACS/PUMS work-commute datasets demonstrates that our framework achieves higher accuracy compared to conventional approaches. The resulting granular insights enable the tailoring of interventions to address localized situations and support a range of policy applications and targeted interventions, including the optimal placement of micro-fulfillment centers, effective curb-space management, and the design of more inclusive transportation solutions particularly for vulnerable communities.

Data from such models often exhibits significant deviations from classical Gaussian approximations. A natural class of statistics to analyze in such models are conditionally centered averages (see [30, 63, 52]), where one recenters the observations by their mean, given all other observations. Crucially, such conditionally centered CLTs are closely tied to maximum pseudolikelihood estimators (MPLEs) through the MPLE score (see [64, 60, 41]). This connection is practically important because in many graphical/Markov random field models (such as Ising models, exponential random graph models (ERGMs), etc.), computing the MLE is impeded by an intractable normalizing constant, whereas pseudolikelihood replaces the joint likelihood with a product of tractable conditional models, scales to large networks, and is widely usable in practice. However, most existing theory for conditionally centered statistics and for MPLE focuses on local dependence -- e.g., bounded degree or sparse neighborhoods -- and does not cover realistic dense regimes in which every node may have many connections (which scale with the size of the network). This paper bridges that gap by developing a general limit theory for conditionally centered statistics under weak and verifiable assumptions. Our results accommodate both sparse and dense interactions, as well as regular and irregular network connections. In particular, we deliver valid studentized inference for pseudolikelihood in network/Markov random field settings. As examples, we obtain new CLTs for conditionally centered averages and pseudo-likelihood estimators in Ising models (with pairwise and tensor interactions), and exponential random graph models, without imposing sparsity, regularity, or high temperature restrictions.

Modeling radio frequency (RF) signal propagation is essential for understanding the environment, as RF signals offer valuable insights beyond the capabilities of RGB cameras, which are limited by the visible-light spectrum, lens coverage, and occlusions. It is also useful for supporting wireless diagnosis, deployment, and optimization. However, accurately predicting RF signals in complex environments remains a challenge due to interactions with obstacles such as absorption and reflection. We introduce Diffusion^2, a diffusion-based approach that uses 3D point clouds to model the propagation of RF signals across a wide range of frequencies, from Wi-Fi to millimeter waves. To effectively capture RF-related features from 3D data, we present the RF-3D Encoder, which encapsulates the complexities of 3D geometry along with signal-specific details. These features undergo multi-scale embedding to simulate the actual RF signal dissemination process. Our evaluation, based on synthetic and real-world measurements, demonstrates that Diffusion^2 accurately estimates the behavior of RF signals in various frequency bands and environmental conditions, with an error margin of just 1.9 dB and 27x faster than existing methods, marking a significant advancement in the field. Refer to https://rfvision-project.github.io/ for more information.

6G networks are envisioned to support on-demand AI model downloading to accommodate diverse inference requirements of end users. By proactively caching models at edge nodes, users can retrieve the requested models with low latency for on-device AI inference. However, the substantial size of contemporary AI models poses significant challenges for edge caching under limited storage capacity, as well as for the concurrent delivery of heterogeneous models over wireless channels. To address these challenges, we propose a fine-grained AI model caching and downloading system that exploits parameter reusability, stemming from the common practice of fine-tuning task-specific models from a shared pre-trained model with frozen parameters. This system selectively caches model parameter blocks (PBs) at edge nodes, eliminating redundant storage of reusable parameters across different cached models. Additionally, it incorporates coordinated multipoint (CoMP) broadcasting to simultaneously deliver reusable PBs to multiple users, thereby enhancing downlink spectrum utilization. Under this arrangement, we formulate a model downloading delay minimization problem to jointly optimize PB caching, migration (among edge nodes), and broadcasting beamforming. To tackle this intractable problem, we develop a distributed multi-agent learning framework that enables edge nodes to explicitly learn mutual influence among their actions, thereby facilitating cooperation. Furthermore, a data augmentation approach is proposed to adaptively generate synthetic training samples through a predictive model, boosting sample efficiency and accelerating policy learning. Both theoretical analysis and simulation experiments validate the superior convergence performance of the proposed learning framework.

We study the problem active sequential hypothesis testing, also known as pure exploration: given a new task, the learner adaptively collects data from the environment to efficiently determine an underlying correct hypothesis. A classical instance of this problem is the task of identifying the best arm in a multi-armed bandit problem (a.k.a. BAI, Best-Arm Identification), where actions index hypotheses. Another important case is generalized search, a problem of determining the correct label through a sequence of strategically selected queries that indirectly reveal information about the label. In this work, we introduce In-Context Pure Exploration (ICPE), which meta-trains Transformers to map observation histories to query actions and a predicted hypothesis, yielding a model that transfers in-context. At inference time, ICPE actively gathers evidence on new tasks and infers the true hypothesis without parameter updates. Across deterministic, stochastic, and structured benchmarks, including BAI and generalized search, ICPE is competitive with adaptive baselines while requiring no explicit modeling of information structure. Our results support Transformers as practical architectures for general sequential testing.

Large Language Models (LLMs) reasoning abilities are increasingly being applied to classical board and card games, but the dominant approach -- involving prompting for direct move generation -- has significant drawbacks. It relies on the model's implicit fragile pattern-matching capabilities, leading to frequent illegal moves and strategically shallow play. Here we introduce an alternative approach: We use the LLM to translate natural language rules and game trajectories into a formal, executable world model represented as Python code. This generated model -- comprising functions for state transition, legal move enumeration, and termination checks -- serves as a verifiable simulation engine for high-performance planning algorithms like Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS). In addition, we prompt the LLM to generate heuristic value functions (to make MCTS more efficient), and inference functions (to estimate hidden states in imperfect information games). Our method offers three distinct advantages compared to directly using the LLM as a policy: (1) Verifiability: The generated CWM serves as a formal specification of the game's rules, allowing planners to algorithmically enumerate valid actions and avoid illegal moves, contingent on the correctness of the synthesized model; (2) Strategic Depth: We combine LLM semantic understanding with the deep search power of classical planners; and (3) Generalization: We direct the LLM to focus on the meta-task of data-to-code translation, enabling it to adapt to new games more easily. We evaluate our agent on 10 different games, of which 4 are novel and created for this paper. 5 of the games are fully observed (perfect information), and 5 are partially observed (imperfect information). We find that our method outperforms or matches Gemini 2.5 Pro in 9 out of the 10 considered games.

The real world is inherently non-stationary, with ever-changing factors, such as weather conditions and traffic flows, making it challenging for agents to adapt to varying environmental dynamics. Non-Stationary Reinforcement Learning (NSRL) addresses this challenge by training agents to adapt rapidly to sequences of distinct Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). However, existing NSRL approaches often focus on tasks with regularly evolving patterns, leading to limited adaptability in highly dynamic settings. Inspired by the success of Wavelet analysis in time series modeling, specifically its ability to capture signal trends at multiple scales, we propose WISDOM to leverage wavelet-domain predictive task representations to enhance NSRL. WISDOM captures these multi-scale features in evolving MDP sequences by transforming task representation sequences into the wavelet domain, where wavelet coefficients represent both global trends and fine-grained variations of non-stationary changes. In addition to the auto-regressive modeling commonly employed in time series forecasting, we devise a wavelet temporal difference (TD) update operator to enhance tracking and prediction of MDP evolution. We theoretically prove the convergence of this operator and demonstrate policy improvement with wavelet task representations. Experiments on diverse benchmarks show that WISDOM significantly outperforms existing baselines in both sample efficiency and asymptotic performance, demonstrating its remarkable adaptability in complex environments characterized by non-stationary and stochastically evolving tasks.

Despite rapid progress in building conversational AI agents, robustness is still largely untested. Small shifts in user behavior, such as being more impatient, incoherent, or skeptical, can cause sharp drops in agent performance, revealing how brittle current AI agents are. Today's benchmarks fail to capture this fragility: agents may perform well under standard evaluations but degrade spectacularly in more realistic and varied settings. We address this robustness testing gap by introducing TraitBasis, a lightweight, model-agnostic method for systematically stress testing AI agents. TraitBasis learns directions in activation space corresponding to steerable user traits (e.g., impatience or incoherence), which can be controlled, scaled, composed, and applied at inference time without any fine-tuning or extra data. Using TraitBasis, we extend $τ$-Bench to $τ$-Trait, where user behaviors are altered via controlled trait vectors. We observe on average a 2%-30% performance degradation on $τ$-Trait across frontier models, highlighting the lack of robustness of current AI agents to variations in user behavior. Together, these results highlight both the critical role of robustness testing and the promise of TraitBasis as a simple, data-efficient, and compositional tool. By powering simulation-driven stress tests and training loops, TraitBasis opens the door to building AI agents that remain reliable in the unpredictable dynamics of real-world human interactions. We have open-sourced $τ$-Trai across four domains: airline, retail, telecom, and telehealth, so the community can systematically QA their agents under realistic, behaviorally diverse intents and trait scenarios: https://github.com/collinear-ai/tau-trait.