Clinical decision-making demands uncertainty quantification that provides both distribution-free coverage guarantees and risk-adaptive precision, requirements that existing methods fail to jointly satisfy. We present a hybrid Bayesian-conformal framework that addresses this fundamental limitation in healthcare predictions. Our approach integrates Bayesian hierarchical random forests with group-aware con-formal calibration, using posterior uncertainties to weight conformity scores while maintaining rigorous coverage validity. Evaluated on 61,538 admissions across 3,793 U.S. hospitals and 4 regions, our method achieves target coverage (94.3% vs 95% target) with adaptive precision: 21% narrower intervals for low-uncertainty cases while appropriately widening for high-risk predictions. Critically, we demonstrate that well-calibrated Bayesian uncertainties alone severely under-cover (14.1%), highlighting the necessity of our hybrid approach. This framework enables risk-stratified clinical protocols, efficient resource planning for high-confidence predictions, and conservative allocation with enhanced oversight for uncertain cases, providing uncertainty-aware decision support across diverse healthcare settings.

Abstract--Non-stationary parametric bandits have attracted much attention recently. There are three principled ways to deal with non-stationarity, including sliding-window, weighted, and restart strategies. As many non-stationary environments exhibit gradual drifting patterns, the weighted strategy is commonly adopted in real-world applications. However, previous theoretical studies show that its analysis is more involved and the algorithms are either computationally less efficient or statistically subopti-mal. This paper revisits the weighted strategy for non-stationary parametric bandits. In linear bandits (LB), we discover that this undesirable feature is due to an inadequate regret analysis, which results in an overly complex algorithm design. We propose a refined analysis framework, which simplifies the derivation and, importantly, produces a simpler weight-based algorithm that is as efficient as window/restart-based algorithms while retaining the same regret as previous studies. Furthermore, our new framework can be used to improve regret bounds of other parametric bandits, including Generalized Linear Bandits (GLB) and Self-Concordant Bandits (SCB). Moreover, we extend our framework to non-stationary Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with function approximation, focusing on Linear Mixture MDP and Multinomial Logit (MNL) Mixture MDP . For both classes, we propose algorithms based on the weighted strategy and establish dynamic regret guarantees using our analysis framework. Index T erms--dynamic regret, non-stationary bandits, discounted factor, online MDPs, function approximation. ON-ST A TIONARY parametric bandits model the sequential decision-making problems where the reward distributions of each arm are structured with an unknown time-varying parameter, which have been extensively studied in recent years [1]-[11] due to their significance in many real-world non-stationary online applications such as recommendation systems [12], [13].

We study multi-user contextual bandits where users are related by a graph and their reward functions exhibit both non-linear behavior and graph homophily. We introduce a principled joint penalty for the collection of user reward functions $\{f_u\}$, combining a graph smoothness term based on RKHS distances with an individual roughness penalty. Our central contribution is proving that this penalty is equivalent to the squared norm within a single, unified \emph{multi-user RKHS}. We explicitly derive its reproducing kernel, which elegantly fuses the graph Laplacian with the base arm kernel. This unification allows us to reframe the problem as learning a single ''lifted'' function, enabling the design of principled algorithms, \texttt{LK-GP-UCB} and \texttt{LK-GP-TS}, that leverage Gaussian Process posteriors over this new kernel for exploration. We provide high-probability regret bounds that scale with an \emph{effective dimension} of the multi-user kernel, replacing dependencies on user count or ambient dimension. Empirically, our methods outperform strong linear and non-graph-aware baselines in non-linear settings and remain competitive even when the true rewards are linear. Our work delivers a unified, theoretically grounded, and practical framework that bridges Laplacian regularization with kernelized bandits for structured exploration.

Gradient-based optimization with categorical variables typically relies on score-function estimators, which are unbiased but noisy, or on continuous relaxations that replace the discrete distribution with a smooth surrogate admitting a pathwise (reparameterized) gradient, at the cost of optimizing a biased, temperature-dependent objective. In this paper, we extend this family of relaxations by introducing a diffusion-based soft reparameterization for categorical distributions. For these distributions, the denoiser under a Gaussian noising process admits a closed form and can be computed efficiently, yielding a training-free diffusion sampler through which we can backpropagate. Our experiments show that the proposed reparameterization trick yields competitive or improved optimization performance on various benchmarks.

Identification and Estimation under Multiple Versions of Treatment: Mixture-of-Experts Approach Kohei Y oshikawa Shuichi Kawano January 5, 2026 Abstract The Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption (SUTV A) includes the condition that there are no multiple versions of treatment in causal inference. Though we could not control the implementation of treatment in observational studies, multiple versions may exist in the treatment. It has been pointed out that ignoring such multiple versions of treatment can lead to biased estimates of causal effects, but a causal inference framework that explicitly deals with the unbiased identification and estimation of version-specific causal effects has not been fully developed yet. Thus, obtaining a deeper understanding for mechanisms of the complex treatments is difficult. In this paper, we introduce the Mixture-of-Experts framework into causal inference and develop a methodology for estimating the causal effects of latent versions. This approach enables explicit estimation of version-specific causal effects even if the versions are not observed. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Keywords causal inference multiple versions of treatment compound treatments mixture-of-experts EM algorithm 1 Introduction In the theory of causal inference, a fundamental starting point is the potential outcomes framework since Rubin (1980), whose core assumption is the Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption (SUTV A).

Numerical simulation of complex physical phenomena is a core enabling technology for digital twins, which are comprised of physical and virtual assets with a two-way flow of information: data from the physical asset is used to construct and/or calibrate the virtual asset (a numerical model), while numerical predictions from the virtual asset are used for control or decision-making for the physical asset [42]. To be viable for practical application, the virtual asset must be able to produce predictions rapidly and reliably; however, the underlying physics that are of interest for digital twin applications can typically only be accurately simulated using a large number of degrees of freedom, leading to computationally expensive numerical simulations. The explainability and computational efficiency of decisions made by the digital twin play a key role in safety-critical applications, making explainable artificial intelligence an essential ingredient [24]. Model reduction techniques are one such explainable scientific machine learning technique that construct low-dimensional systems, called reduced-order models (ROMs), to serve as computationally inexpensive surrogates for a high-dimensional physics simulation [4, 20]. This paper introduces a technique for adaptively constructing ROMs to emulate systems with parametric dependence, that is, systems whose behavior varies with some set of parameters, usually representing physical properties. We focus on systems where the parametric dependence manifests in the operators defining the model, not merely in initial conditions or external inputs.

We investigate robustness to strong data corruption in offline sparse reinforcement learning (RL). In our setting, an adversary may arbitrarily perturb a fraction of the collected trajectories from a high-dimensional but sparse Markov decision process, and our goal is to estimate a near optimal policy. The main challenge is that, in the high-dimensional regime where the number of samples $N$ is smaller than the feature dimension $d$, exploiting sparsity is essential for obtaining non-vacuous guarantees but has not been systematically studied in offline RL. We analyse the problem under uniform coverage and sparse single-concentrability assumptions. While Least Square Value Iteration (LSVI), a standard approach for robust offline RL, performs well under uniform coverage, we show that integrating sparsity into LSVI is unnatural, and its analysis may break down due to overly pessimistic bonuses. To overcome this, we propose actor-critic methods with sparse robust estimator oracles, which avoid the use of pointwise pessimistic bonuses and provide the first non-vacuous guarantees for sparse offline RL under single-policy concentrability coverage. Moreover, we extend our results to the contaminated setting and show that our algorithm remains robust under strong contamination. Our results provide the first non-vacuous guarantees in high-dimensional sparse MDPs with single-policy concentrability coverage and corruption, showing that learning a near-optimal policy remains possible in regimes where traditional robust offline RL techniques may fail.

Stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics and its variants approximate the likelihood of an entire dataset, via random (and typically much smaller) subsets, in the setting of Bayesian sampling. Due to the (often substantial) improvement of the computational efficiency, they have been widely used in large-scale machine learning applications. It has been demonstrated that the so-called covariance-controlled adaptive Langevin (CCAdL) thermostat, which incorporates an additional term involving the covariance matrix of the noisy force, outperforms popular alternative methods. A moving average is used in CCAdL to estimate the covariance matrix of the noisy force, in which case the covariance matrix will converge to a constant matrix in long-time limit. Moreover, it appears in our numerical experiments that the use of a moving average could reduce the stability of the numerical integrators, thereby limiting the largest usable stepsize. In this article, we propose a modified CCAdL (i.e., mCCAdL) thermostat that uses the scaling part of the scaling and squaring method together with a truncated Taylor series approximation to the exponential to numerically approximate the exact solution to the subsystem involving the additional term proposed in CCAdL. We also propose a symmetric splitting method for mCCAdL, instead of an Euler-type discretisation used in the original CCAdL thermostat. We demonstrate in our numerical experiments that the newly proposed mCCAdL thermostat achieves a substantial improvement in the numerical stability over the original CCAdL thermostat, while significantly outperforming popular alternative stochastic gradient methods in terms of the numerical accuracy for large-scale machine learning applications.

Machine Learning (ML) has been a foundational topic in artificial intelligence (AI), providing both theoretical groundwork and practical tools for its exciting advancements. From ResNet for visual recognition to Transformer for vision-language alignment, the AI models have achieved superior capability to humans. Furthermore, the scaling law has enabled AI to initially develop general intelligence, as demonstrated by Large Language Models (LLMs). To this stage, AI has had an enormous influence on society and yet still keeps shaping the future for humanity. However, distribution shift remains a persistent ``Achilles' heel'', fundamentally limiting the reliability and general usefulness of ML systems. Moreover, generalization under distribution shift would also cause trust issues for AIs. Motivated by these challenges, my research focuses on \textit{Trustworthy Machine Learning under Distribution Shifts}, with the goal of expanding AI's robustness, versatility, as well as its responsibility and reliability. We carefully study the three common distribution shifts into: (1) Perturbation Shift, (2) Domain Shift, and (3) Modality Shift. For all scenarios, we also rigorously investigate trustworthiness via three aspects: (1) Robustness, (2) Explainability, and (3) Adaptability. Based on these dimensions, we propose effective solutions and fundamental insights, meanwhile aiming to enhance the critical ML problems, such as efficiency, adaptability, and safety.

Causal inference is a key research area in machine learning, yet confusion reigns over the tools needed to tackle it. There are prevalent claims in the machine learning literature that you need a bespoke causal framework or notation to answer causal questions. In this paper, we want to make it clear that you \emph{can} answer any causal inference question within the realm of probabilistic modelling and inference, without causal-specific tools or notation. Through concrete examples, we demonstrate how causal questions can be tackled by writing down the probability of everything. Lastly, we reinterpret causal tools as emerging from standard probabilistic modelling and inference, elucidating their necessity and utility.