To enable effective human-AI collaboration, merely optimizing AI performance while ignoring humans is not sufficient. Recent research has demonstrated that designing AI agents to account for human behavior leads to improved performance in human-AI collaboration. However, a limitation of most existing approaches is their assumption that human behavior is static, irrespective of AI behavior. In reality, humans may adjust their action plans based on their observations of AI behavior. In this paper, we address this limitation by enabling a collaborative AI agent to consider the beliefs of its human partner, i.e., what the human partner thinks the AI agent is doing, and design its action plan to facilitate easier collaboration with its human partner. Specifically, we developed a model of human beliefs that accounts for how humans reason about the behavior of their AI partners. Based on this belief model, we then developed an AI agent that considers both human behavior and human beliefs in devising its strategy for working with humans. Through extensive real-world human-subject experiments, we demonstrated that our belief model more accurately predicts humans' beliefs about AI behavior. Moreover, we showed that our design of AI agents that accounts for human beliefs enhances performance in human-AI collaboration.

Many multi-agent systems in practice are decentralized and have dynamically varying dependencies. There has been a lack of attempts in the literature to analyze these systems theoretically. In this paper, we propose and theoretically analyze a decentralized model with dynamically varying dependencies called the Locally Interdependent Multi-Agent MDP. This model can represent problems in many disparate domains such as cooperative navigation, obstacle avoidance, and formation control. Despite the intractability that general partially observable multi-agent systems suffer from, we propose three closed-form policies that are theoretically near-optimal in this setting and can be scalable to compute and store. Consequentially, we reveal a fundamental property of Locally Interdependent Multi-Agent MDP's that the partially observable decentralized solution is exponentially close to the fully observable solution with respect to the visibility radius. We then discuss extensions of our closed-form policies to further improve tractability. We conclude by providing simulations to investigate some long horizon behaviors of our closed-form policies.

In this paper, we introduce Multi-Objective Deep Centralized Multi-Agent Actor-Critic (MO- DCMAC), a multi-objective reinforcement learning (MORL) method for infrastructural maintenance optimization, an area traditionally dominated by single-objective reinforcement learning (RL) approaches. Previous single-objective RL methods combine multiple objectives, such as probability of collapse and cost, into a singular reward signal through reward-shaping. In contrast, MO-DCMAC can optimize a policy for multiple objectives directly, even when the utility function is non-linear. We evaluated MO-DCMAC using two utility functions, which use probability of collapse and cost as input. The first utility function is the Threshold utility, in which MO-DCMAC should minimize cost so that the probability of collapse is never above the threshold. The second is based on the Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) methodology used by asset managers to asses maintenance plans. We evaluated MO-DCMAC, with both utility functions, in multiple maintenance environments, including ones based on a case study of the historical quay walls of Amsterdam. The performance of MO-DCMAC was compared against multiple rule-based policies based on heuristics currently used for constructing maintenance plans. Our results demonstrate that MO-DCMAC outperforms traditional rule-based policies across various environments and utility functions.

Quantized neural networks are well known for reducing the latency, power consumption, and model size without significant harm to the performance. This makes them highly appropriate for systems with limited resources and low power capacity. Mixed-precision quantization offers better utilization of customized hardware that supports arithmetic operations at different bitwidths. Quantization methods either aim to minimize the compression loss given a desired reduction or optimize a dependent variable for a specified property of the model (such as FLOPs or model size); both make the performance inefficient when deployed on specific hardware, but more importantly, quantization methods assume that the loss manifold holds a global minimum for a quantized model that copes with the global minimum of the full precision counterpart. Challenging this assumption, we argue that the optimal minimum changes as the precision changes, and thus, it is better to look at quantization as a random process, placing the foundation for a different approach to quantize neural networks, which, during the training procedure, quantizes the model to a different precision, looks at the bit allocation as a Markov Decision Process, and then, finds an optimal bitwidth allocation for measuring specified behaviors on a specific device via direct signals from the particular hardware architecture. By doing so, we avoid the basic assumption that the loss behaves the same way for a quantized model. Automatic Mixed-Precision Quantization for Edge Devices (dubbed AMED) demonstrates its superiority over current state-of-the-art schemes in terms of the trade-off between neural network accuracy and hardware efficiency, backed by a comprehensive evaluation.

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes which describe dynamical systems evolving in discrete state spaces. These processes find wide application in the natural sciences and machine learning, but their inference is known to be far from trivial. In this work we introduce a methodology for zeroshot inference of Markov jump processes (MJPs), on bounded state spaces, from noisy and sparse observations, which consists of two components. First, a broad probability distribution over families of MJPs, as well as over possible observation times and noise mechanisms, with which we simulate a synthetic dataset of hidden MJPs and their noisy observation process. Second, a neural network model that processes subsets of the simulated observations, and that is trained to output the initial condition and rate matrix of the target MJP in a supervised way. We empirically demonstrate that one and the same (pretrained) model can infer, in a zero-shot fashion, hidden MJPs evolving in state spaces of different dimensionalities. Specifically, we infer MJPs which describe (i) discrete flashing ratchet systems, which are a type of Brownian motors, and the conformational dynamics in (ii) molecular simulations, (iii) experimental ion channel data and (iv) simple protein folding models. What is more, we show that our model performs on par with state-of-the-art models which are finetuned to the target datasets. Our pretrained model is available online.

Latent variable models serve as powerful tools to infer underlying dynamics from observed neural activity. However, due to the absence of ground truth data, prediction benchmarks are often employed as proxies. In this study, we reveal the limitations of the widely-used 'co-smoothing' prediction framework and propose an improved few-shot prediction approach that encourages more accurate latent dynamics. Utilizing a student-teacher setup with Hidden Markov Models, we demonstrate that the high co-smoothing model space can encompass models with arbitrary extraneous dynamics within their latent representations. To address this, we introduce a secondary metric -- a few-shot version of co-smoothing. This involves performing regression from the latent variables to held-out channels in the data using fewer trials. Our results indicate that among models with near-optimal co-smoothing, those with extraneous dynamics underperform in the few-shot co-smoothing compared to 'minimal' models devoid of such dynamics. We also provide analytical insights into the origin of this phenomenon. We further validate our findings on real neural data using two state-of-the-art methods: LFADS and STNDT. In the absence of ground truth, we suggest a proxy measure to quantify extraneous dynamics. By cross-decoding the latent variables of all model pairs with high co-smoothing, we identify models with minimal extraneous dynamics. We find a correlation between few-shot co-smoothing performance and this new measure. In summary, we present a novel prediction metric designed to yield latent variables that more accurately reflect the ground truth, offering a significant improvement for latent dynamics inference.

We present a theoretical analysis of the Elo rating system, a popular method for ranking skills of players in an online setting. In particular, we study Elo under the Bradley--Terry--Luce model and, using techniques from Markov chain theory, show that Elo learns the model parameters at a rate competitive with the state of the art. We apply our results to the problem of efficient tournament design and discuss a connection with the fastest-mixing Markov chain problem.

Risk averse decision making under uncertainty in partially observable domains is a fundamental problem in AI and essential for reliable autonomous agents. In our case, the problem is modeled using partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs), when the value function is the conditional value at risk (CVaR) of the return. Calculating an optimal solution for POMDPs is computationally intractable in general. In this work we develop a simplification framework to speedup the evaluation of the value function, while providing performance guarantees. We consider as simplification a computationally cheaper belief-MDP transition model, that can correspond, e.g., to cheaper observation or transition models. Our contributions include general bounds for CVaR that allow bounding the CVaR of a random variable X, using a random variable Y, by assuming bounds between their cumulative distributions. We then derive bounds for the CVaR value function in a POMDP setting, and show how to bound the value function using the computationally cheaper belief-MDP transition model and without accessing the computationally expensive model in real-time. Then, we provide theoretical performance guarantees for the estimated bounds. Our results apply for a general simplification of a belief-MDP transition model and support simplification of both the observation and state transition models simultaneously.

In manipulation tasks like plug insertion or assembly that have low tolerance to errors in pose estimation (errors of the order of 2mm can cause task failure), the utilization of touch/contact modality can aid in accurately localizing the object of interest. Motivated by this, in this work we model high-precision insertion tasks as planning problems under pose uncertainty, where we effectively utilize the occurrence of contacts (or the lack thereof) as observations to reduce uncertainty and reliably complete the task. We present a preprocessing-based planning framework for high-precision insertion in repetitive and time-critical settings, where the set of initial pose distributions (identified by a perception system) is finite. The finite set allows us to enumerate the possible planning problems that can be encountered online and preprocess a database of policies. Due to the computational complexity of constructing this database, we propose a general experience-based POMDP solver, E-RTDP-Bel, that uses the solutions of similar planning problems as experience to speed up planning queries and use it to efficiently construct the database. We show that the developed algorithm speeds up database creation by over a factor of 100, making the process computationally tractable. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework in a real-world plug insertion task in the presence of port position uncertainty and a pipe assembly task in simulation in the presence of pipe pose uncertainty.

In unsupervised environment design, reinforcement learning agents are trained on environment configurations (levels) generated by an adversary that maximises some objective. Regret is a commonly used objective that theoretically results in a minimax regret (MMR) policy with desirable robustness guarantees; in particular, the agent's maximum regret is bounded. However, once the agent reaches this regret bound on all levels, the adversary will only sample levels where regret cannot be further reduced. Although there are possible performance improvements to be made outside of these regret-maximising levels, learning stagnates. In this work, we introduce Bayesian level-perfect MMR (BLP), a refinement of the minimax regret objective that overcomes this limitation. We formally show that solving for this objective results in a subset of MMR policies, and that BLP policies act consistently with a Perfect Bayesian policy over all levels. We further introduce an algorithm, ReMiDi, that results in a BLP policy at convergence. We empirically demonstrate that training on levels from a minimax regret adversary causes learning to prematurely stagnate, but that ReMiDi continues learning.