In the standard formulation of the denoising problem, one is given a probabilistic model relating a latent variable $\Theta \in \Omega \subset \mathbb{R}^m \; (m\ge 1)$ and an observation $Z \in \mathbb{R}^d$ according to: $Z \mid \Theta \sim p(\cdot\mid \Theta)$ and $\Theta \sim G^*$, and the goal is to construct a map to recover the latent variable from the observation. The posterior mean, a natural candidate for estimating $\Theta$ from $Z$, attains the minimum Bayes risk (under the squared error loss) but at the expense of over-shrinking the $Z$, and in general may fail to capture the geometric features of the prior distribution $G^*$ (e.g., low dimensionality, discreteness, sparsity, etc.). To rectify these drawbacks, in this paper we take a new perspective on this denoising problem that is inspired by optimal transport (OT) theory and use it to propose a new OT-based denoiser at the population level setting. We rigorously prove that, under general assumptions on the model, our OT-based denoiser is well-defined and unique, and is closely connected to solutions to a Monge OT problem. We then prove that, under appropriate identifiability assumptions on the model, our OT-based denoiser can be recovered solely from information of the marginal distribution of $Z$ and the posterior mean of the model, after solving a linear relaxation problem over a suitable space of couplings that is reminiscent of a standard multimarginal OT (MOT) problem. In particular, thanks to Tweedie's formula, when the likelihood model $\{ p(\cdot \mid \theta) \}_{\theta \in \Omega}$ is an exponential family of distributions, the OT-based denoiser can be recovered solely from the marginal distribution of $Z$. In general, our family of OT-like relaxations is of interest in its own right and for the denoising problem suggests alternative numerical methods inspired by the rich literature on computational OT.

Score matching is an approach to learning probability distributions parametrized up to a constant of proportionality (e.g. Energy-Based Models). The idea is to fit the score of the distribution, rather than the likelihood, thus avoiding the need to evaluate the constant of proportionality. While there's a clear algorithmic benefit, the statistical "cost'' can be steep: recent work by Koehler et al. 2022 showed that for distributions that have poor isoperimetric properties (a large Poincar\'e or log-Sobolev constant), score matching is substantially statistically less efficient than maximum likelihood. However, many natural realistic distributions, e.g. multimodal distributions as simple as a mixture of two Gaussians in one dimension -- have a poor Poincar\'e constant. In this paper, we show a close connection between the mixing time of a broad class of Markov processes with generator $\mathcal{L}$ and an appropriately chosen generalized score matching loss that tries to fit $\frac{\mathcal{O} p}{p}$. This allows us to adapt techniques to speed up Markov chains to construct better score-matching losses. In particular, ``preconditioning'' the diffusion can be translated to an appropriate ``preconditioning'' of the score loss. Lifting the chain by adding a temperature like in simulated tempering can be shown to result in a Gaussian-convolution annealed score matching loss, similar to Song and Ermon, 2019. Moreover, we show that if the distribution being learned is a finite mixture of Gaussians in $d$ dimensions with a shared covariance, the sample complexity of annealed score matching is polynomial in the ambient dimension, the diameter of the means, and the smallest and largest eigenvalues of the covariance -- obviating the Poincar\'e constant-based lower bounds of the basic score matching loss shown in Koehler et al. 2022.

This dissertation will combine new tools and methodologies to answer pressing questions regarding inundation area and hurricane events in complex, heterogeneous changing environments. In addition to remote sensing approaches, citizen science and machine learning are both emerging fields that harness advancing technology to answer environmental management and disaster response questions. Freshwater lakes supply a large amount of inland water resources to sustain local and regional developments. However, some lake systems depend upon great fluctuation in water surface area.

In this paper, we propose a novel personalized decision support system that combines Theory of Mind (ToM) modeling and explainable Reinforcement Learning (XRL) to provide effective and interpretable interventions. Our method leverages DRL to provide expert action recommendations while incorporating ToM modeling to understand users' mental states and predict their future actions, enabling appropriate timing for intervention. To explain interventions, we use counterfactual explanations based on RL's feature importance and users' ToM model structure. Our proposed system generates accurate and personalized interventions that are easily interpretable by end-users. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach through a series of crowd-sourcing experiments in a simulated team decision-making task, where our system outperforms control baselines in terms of task performance. Our proposed approach is agnostic to task environment and RL model structure, therefore has the potential to be generalized to a wide range of applications.

The Multi-Reference Alignment (MRA) problem aims at the recovery of an unknown signal from repeated observations under the latent action of a group of cyclic isometries, in the presence of additive noise of high intensity $\sigma$. It is a more tractable version of the celebrated cryo EM model. In the crucial high noise regime, it is known that its sample complexity scales as $\sigma^6$. Recent investigations have shown that for the practically significant setting of sparse signals, the sample complexity of the maximum likelihood estimator asymptotically scales with the noise level as $\sigma^4$. In this work, we investigate minimax optimality for signal estimation under the MRA model for so-called collision-free signals. In particular, this signal class covers the setting of generic signals of dilute sparsity (wherein the support size $s=O(L^{1/3})$, where $L$ is the ambient dimension. We demonstrate that the minimax optimal rate of estimation in for the sparse MRA problem in this setting is $\sigma^2/\sqrt{n}$, where $n$ is the sample size. In particular, this widely generalizes the sample complexity asymptotics for the restricted MLE in this setting, establishing it as the statistically optimal estimator. Finally, we demonstrate a concentration inequality for the restricted MLE on its deviations from the ground truth.

The increasing interest in data sharing makes synthetic data appealing. However, the analysis of synthetic data raises a unique set of methodological challenges. In this work, we highlight the importance of inferential utility and provide empirical evidence against naive inference from synthetic data (that handles these as if they were really observed). We argue that the rate of false-positive findings (type 1 error) will be unacceptably high, even when the estimates are unbiased. One of the reasons is the underestimation of the true standard error, which may even progressively increase with larger sample sizes due to slower convergence. This is especially problematic for deep generative models. Before publishing synthetic data, it is essential to develop statistical inference tools for such data.

In many real-world scenarios, it is crucial to be able to reliably and efficiently reason under uncertainty while capturing complex relationships in data. Probabilistic circuits (PCs), a prominent family of tractable probabilistic models, offer a remedy to this challenge by composing simple, tractable distributions into a high-dimensional probability distribution. However, learning PCs on heterogeneous data is challenging and densities of some parametric distributions are not available in closed form, limiting their potential use. We introduce characteristic circuits (CCs), a family of tractable probabilistic models providing a unified formalization of distributions over heterogeneous data in the spectral domain. The one-to-one relationship between characteristic functions and probability measures enables us to learn high-dimensional distributions on heterogeneous data domains and facilitates efficient probabilistic inference even when no closed-form density function is available. We show that the structure and parameters of CCs can be learned efficiently from the data and find that CCs outperform state-of-the-art density estimators for heterogeneous data domains on common benchmark data sets.

In this paper we introduce GP+, an open-source library for kernel-based learning via Gaussian processes (GPs) which are powerful statistical models that are completely characterized by their parametric covariance and mean functions. GP+ is built on PyTorch and provides a user-friendly and object-oriented tool for probabilistic learning and inference. As we demonstrate with a host of examples, GP+ has a few unique advantages over other GP modeling libraries. We achieve these advantages primarily by integrating nonlinear manifold learning techniques with GPs' covariance and mean functions. As part of introducing GP+, in this paper we also make methodological contributions that (1) enable probabilistic data fusion and inverse parameter estimation, and (2) equip GPs with parsimonious parametric mean functions which span mixed feature spaces that have both categorical and quantitative variables. We demonstrate the impact of these contributions in the context of Bayesian optimization, multi-fidelity modeling, sensitivity analysis, and calibration of computer models.

In domain adaptation, covariate shift and label shift problems are two distinct and complementary tasks. In covariate shift adaptation where the differences in data distribution arise from variations in feature probabilities, existing approaches naturally address this problem based on \textit{feature probability matching} (\textit{FPM}). However, for label shift adaptation where the differences in data distribution stem solely from variations in class probability, current methods still use FPM on the $d$-dimensional feature space to estimate the class probability ratio on the one-dimensional label space. To address label shift adaptation more naturally and effectively, inspired by a new representation of the source domain's class probability, we propose a new framework called \textit{class probability matching} (\textit{CPM}) which matches two class probability functions on the one-dimensional label space to estimate the class probability ratio, fundamentally different from FPM operating on the $d$-dimensional feature space. Furthermore, by incorporating the kernel logistic regression into the CPM framework to estimate the conditional probability, we propose an algorithm called \textit{class probability matching using kernel methods} (\textit{CPMKM}) for label shift adaptation. From the theoretical perspective, we establish the optimal convergence rates of CPMKM with respect to the cross-entropy loss for multi-class label shift adaptation. From the experimental perspective, comparisons on real datasets demonstrate that CPMKM outperforms existing FPM-based and maximum-likelihood-based algorithms.

We consider the problem of learning a graph modeling the statistical relations of the $d$ variables from a dataset with $n$ samples $X \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times d}$. Standard approaches amount to searching for a precision matrix $\Theta$ representative of a Gaussian graphical model that adequately explains the data. However, most maximum likelihood-based estimators usually require storing the $d^{2}$ values of the empirical covariance matrix, which can become prohibitive in a high-dimensional setting. In this work, we adopt a compressive viewpoint and aim to estimate a sparse $\Theta$ from a \emph{sketch} of the data, i.e. a low-dimensional vector of size $m \ll d^{2}$ carefully designed from $X$ using non-linear random features. Under certain assumptions on the spectrum of $\Theta$ (or its condition number), we show that it is possible to estimate it from a sketch of size $m=\Omega\left((d+2k)\log(d)\right)$ where $k$ is the maximal number of edges of the underlying graph. These information-theoretic guarantees are inspired by compressed sensing theory and involve restricted isometry properties and instance optimal decoders. We investigate the possibility of achieving practical recovery with an iterative algorithm based on the graphical lasso, viewed as a specific denoiser. We compare our approach and graphical lasso on synthetic datasets, demonstrating its favorable performance even when the dataset is compressed.