The growing popularity of vine copulas in multivariate statistical analysis is largely driven by their ability to capture complex dependence structures. However, this flexibility comes at a cost, as the number of possible vine models grows rapidly and becomes intractable even in moderately low-dimensional settings. These limitations affect the practical applicability of current Bayesian inference and model selection approaches, effectively restricting it to problems of relatively small-dimension due to their high computational cost. This paper addresses the still open challenge of efficient model selection and estimation in Bayesian vine methodology. We propose a novel framework for Bayesian vine copula model selection that combines loss-based model priors with the shotgun stochastic search strategy. The strength of the proposed approach is twofold: it promotes sparsity and enables fast and effective structure selection. Furthermore, our comprehensive framework jointly identifies the vine structure, selects the copula families, and estimates the model parameters. The power of the proposed approach is demonstrated via simulation studies and an application to a real dataset of EFT portfolio asset returns.

In domain adaption (DA), joint maximum mean discrepancy (JMMD), as a famous distribution-distance metric, aims to measure joint probability distribution difference between the source domain and target domain, while it is still not fully explored and especially hard to be applied into a subspace-learning framework as its empirical estimation involves a tensor-product operator whose partial derivative is difficult to obtain. To solve this issue, we deduce a concise JMMD based on the Representer theorem that avoids the tensor-product operator and obtains two essential findings. First, we reveal the uniformity of JMMD by proving that previous marginal, class conditional, and weighted class conditional probability distribution distances are three special cases of JMMD with different label reproducing kernels. Second, inspired by graph embedding, we observe that the similarity weights, which strengthen the intra-class compactness in the graph of Hilbert Schmidt independence criterion (HSIC), take opposite signs in the graph of JMMD, revealing why JMMD degrades the feature discrimination. This motivates us to propose a novel loss JMMD-HSIC by jointly considering JMMD and HSIC to promote discrimination of JMMD. Extensive experiments on several cross-domain datasets could demonstrate the validity of our revealed theoretical results and the effectiveness of our proposed JMMD-HSIC.

Concept-based models are an emerging paradigm in deep learning that constrains the inference process to operate through human-interpretable variables, facilitating explainability and human interaction. However, these architectures, on par with popular opaque neural models, fail to account for the true causal mechanisms underlying the target phenomena represented in the data. This hampers their ability to support causal reasoning tasks, limits out-of-distribution generalization, and hinders the implementation of fairness constraints. To overcome these issues, we propose Causally reliable Concept Bottleneck Models (C2BMs), a class of concept-based architectures that enforce reasoning through a bottleneck of concepts structured according to a model of the real-world causal mechanisms. We also introduce a pipeline to automatically learn this structure from observational data and unstructured background knowledge (e.g., scientific literature). Experimental evidence suggests that C2BMs are more interpretable, causally reliable, and improve responsiveness to interventions w.r.t.

Training Reinforcement Learning (RL) controllers in simulation offers costefficiency and safety advantages. However, the resultant policies often suffer significant performance degradation during real-world deployment due to the reality gap. Previous works like System Identification (Sys-Id) have attempted to bridge this discrepancy by improving simulator fidelity, but encounter challenges including the collapse of high-dimensional parameter identification, low identification accuracy, and unstable convergence dynamics. To address these challenges, we propose a novel Sys-Id framework that combines Diffusion Evolution with Adversarial Learning (DEAL) to iteratively infer physical parameters with limited real-world data, which makes the state transitions between simulation and reality as similar as possible. Specifically, our method iteratively refines physical parameters through a dual mechanism: a discriminator network evaluates the similarity of state transitions between parameterized simulations and target environment as fitness guidance, while diffusion evolution adaptively modulates noise prediction and denoising processes to optimize parameter distributions.

In single-cell perturbation prediction, a central task is to forecast the effects of perturbing a gene unseen in the training data. The efficacy of such predictions depends on two factors: (1) the similarity of the target gene to those covered in the training data, which informs model (epistemic) uncertainty, and (2) the quality of the corresponding training data, which reflects data (aleatoric) uncertainty. Both factors are critical for determining the reliability of a prediction, particularly as gene perturbation is an inherently stochastic biochemical process. In this paper, we propose PRESCRIBE (PREdicting Single-Cell Response wIth Bayesian Estimation), a multivariate deep evidential regression framework designed to measure both sources of uncertainty jointly. Our analysis demonstrates that PRESCRIBE effectively estimates a confidence score for each prediction, which strongly correlates with its empirical accuracy. This capability enables the filtering of untrustworthy results, and in our experiments, it achieves steady accuracy improvements of over 3% compared to comparable baselines.

Predictions in the form of sets of probability distributions, so-called credal sets, provide a suitable means to represent a learner's epistemic uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a theoretically grounded approach to credal prediction based on the statistical notion of relative likelihood: The target of prediction is the set of all (conditional) probability distributions produced by the collection of plausible models, namely those models whose relative likelihood exceeds a specified threshold. This threshold has an intuitive interpretation and allows for controlling the trade-off between correctness and precision of credal predictions. We tackle the problem of approximating credal sets defined in this way by means of suitably modified ensemble learning techniques. To validate our approach, we illustrate its effectiveness by experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrating superior uncertainty representation without compromising predictive performance. We also compare our method against several state-of-the-art baselines in credal prediction.

Noisy labels often compel models to overfit, especially in multi-label classification tasks. Existing methods for noisy multi-label learning (NML) primarily follow a discriminative paradigm, which relies on noise transition matrix estimation or small-loss strategies to correct noisy labels. However, they remain substantial optimization difficulties compared to noisy single-label learning. In this paper, we propose a Co-Occurrence-Aware Diffusion (CAD) model, which reformulates NML from a generative perspective. We treat features as conditions and multilabels as diffusion targets, optimizing the diffusion model for multi-label learning with theoretical guarantees. Benefiting from the diffusion model's strength in capturing multi-object semantics and structured label matrix representation, we can effectively learn the posterior mapping from features to true multi-labels. To mitigate the interference of noisy labels in the forward process, we guide generation using pseudo-clean labels reconstructed from the latent neighborhood space, replacing original point-wise estimates with neighborhood-based proxies. In the reverse process, we further incorporate label co-occurrence constraints to enhance the model's awareness of incorrect generation directions, thereby promoting robust optimization. Extensive experiments on both synthetic (Pascal-VOC, MS-COCO) and real-world (NUS-WIDE) noisy datasets demonstrate that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods.

However, deploying these models can be unreliable when significant distribution gaps exist between training and test data, while fine-tuning for diverse scenarios is often costly. This creates a need for methods that can efficiently adapt to new data at test time without expensive retraining. Cache-based test-time adapters serve this purpose by storing representative test samples to guide subsequent classifications. Yet, these methods typically employ naive cache management with limited capacity, leading to severe catastrophic forgetting when samples are inevitably dropped during updates. In this paper, we propose Dota(DistributiOnal Test-time Adaptation), a simple yet effective method addressing this limitation. Crucially, instead of merely memorizing individual test samples, Dotacontinuously estimates the underlying distribution of the test data stream. Test-time posterior probabilities are then computed using these dynamically estimated distributions via Bayes' theorem for adaptation. This distribution-centric approach enables the model to continually learn and adapt to the deployment environment. Extensive experiments validate that Dota significantly mitigates forgetting and achieves state-of-the-art performance compared to existing methods.

Targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) is a widely used debiasing algorithm for plug-in estimation. While its statistical guarantees, such as double robustness and asymptotic efficiency, are well-studied, the convergence properties of TMLE as an iterative optimization scheme have remained underexplored. To bridge this gap, we study TMLE's iterative updates through an optimization-theoretic lens, establishing global convergence under standard assumptions and regularity conditions. We begin by providing the first complete characterization of different stopping criteria and their relationship to convergence in TMLE. Next, we provide geometric insights.

Bayesian networks (BNs), represented by directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), provide a principled framework for modeling complex dependencies among random variables. As data dimensionality increases into the tens of thousands, fitting and marginalizing a full BN becomes computationally prohibitive--particularly when inference is only needed for a small subset of variables. Estimation-collapsibility addresses this challenge by ensuring that directly fitting a submodel, obtained by ignoring non-essential variables, still yields exact inference on target variables. However, current DAG-based criterion for checking estimation-collapsibility is computationally intensive, involving exhaustive vertex searches and iterative removals. Additionally, practical applications typically identify the underlying DAG only up to its Markov equivalence class, represented by a completed partially directed acyclic graph (CPDAG). To bridge this gap, we introduce sequential c-simplicial sets--a novel graphical characterization of estimation-collapsibility directly applicable to CPDAGs. We further propose DSCS, a computationally efficient algorithm for verifying estimation-collapsibility within CPDAG framework that scales effectively to high-dimensional BNs. Extensive numerical experiments demonstrate the practicality, scalability, and efficiency of our proposed approach.