Many Bayesian network modelling applications suffer from the issue of data scarcity. Hence the use of expert judgement often becomes necessary to determine the parameters of the conditional probability tables (CPTs) throughout the network. There are usually a prohibitively large number of these parameters to determine, even when complementing any available data with expert judgements. To address this challenge, a number of CPT approximation methods have been developed that reduce the quantity and complexity of parameters needing to be determined to fully parameterise a Bayesian network. This paper provides a review of a variety of structural refinement methods that can be used in practice to efficiently approximate a CPT within a Bayesian network. We not only introduce and discuss the intrinsic properties and requirements of each method, but we evaluate each method through a worked example on a Bayesian network model of cardiovascular risk assessment. We conclude with practical guidance to help Bayesian network practitioners choose an alternative approach when direct parameterisation of a CPT is infeasible.

The exponential growth of internet generated data has fueled advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and deep learning (DL) for extracting actionable insights in marketing,telecom, and health sectors. This chapter explores ML applications across three domains namely healthcare, marketing, and telecommunications, with a primary focus on developing a framework for optimal ML algorithm selection. In healthcare, the framework addresses critical challenges such as cardiovascular disease prediction accounting for 28.1% of global deaths and fetal health classification into healthy or unhealthy states, utilizing three datasets. ML algorithms are categorized into eager, lazy, and hybrid learners, selected based on dataset attributes, performance metrics (accuracy, precision, recall), and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) scores. For validation, eight datasets from the three sectors are employed in the experiments. The key contribution is a recommendation framework that identifies the best ML model according to input attributes, balancing performance evaluation and model complexity to enhance efficiency and accuracy in diverse real-world applications. This approach bridges gaps in automated model selection, offering practical implications for interdisciplinary ML deployment.

The wide adoption of AI decision-making systems in critical domains such as criminal justice, loan approval, and hiring processes has heightened concerns about algorithmic fairness. As we often only have access to the output of algorithms without insights into their internal mechanisms, it was natural to examine how decisions would alter when auxiliary sensitive attributes (such as race) change. This led the research community to come up with counterfactual fairness measures, but how to evaluate the measure from available data remains a challenging task. In many practical applications, the target counterfactual measure is not identifiable, i.e., it cannot be uniquely determined from the combination of quantitative data and qualitative knowledge. This paper addresses this challenge using partial identification, which derives informative bounds over counterfactual fairness measures from observational data. We introduce a Bayesian approach to bound unknown counterfactual fairness measures with high confidence. We demonstrate our algorithm on the COMPAS dataset, examining fairness in recidivism risk scores with respect to race, age, and sex. Our results reveal a positive (spurious) effect on the COMPAS score when changing race to African-American (from all others) and a negative (direct causal) effect when transitioning from young to old age.

Detecting anomalies in irregularly sampled multi-variate time-series is challenging, especially in data-scarce settings. Here we introduce an anomaly detection framework for irregularly sampled time-series that leverages neural jump ordinary differential equations (NJODEs). The method infers conditional mean and variance trajectories in a fully path dependent way and computes anomaly scores. On synthetic data containing jump, drift, diffusion, and noise anomalies, the framework accurately identifies diverse deviations. Applied to infant gut microbiome trajectories, it delineates the magnitude and persistence of antibiotic-induced disruptions: revealing prolonged anomalies after second antibiotic courses, extended duration treatments, and exposures during the second year of life. We further demonstrate the predictive capabilities of the inferred anomaly scores in accurately predicting antibiotic events and outperforming diversity-based baselines. Our approach accommodates unevenly spaced longitudinal observations, adjusts for static and dynamic covariates, and provides a foundation for inferring microbial anomalies induced by perturbations, offering a translational opportunity to optimize intervention regimens by minimizing microbial disruptions.

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a major cause of visual impairment, and effective treatment options depend heavily on timely and accurate diagnosis. Deep learning models have demonstrated great success identifying DR from retinal images. However, relying only on predictions made by models, without any indication of model confidence, creates uncertainty and poses significant risk in clinical settings. This paper investigates an alternative in uncertainty-aware deep learning models, including a rejection mechanism to reject low-confidence predictions, contextualized by deferred decision-making in clinical practice. The results show there is a trade-off between prediction coverage and coverage reliability. The Variational Bayesian model adopted a more conservative strategy when predicting DR, subsequently rejecting the uncertain predictions. The model is evaluated by means of important performance metrics such as Accuracy on accepted predictions, the proportion of accepted cases (coverage), the rejection-ratio, and Expected Calibration Error (ECE). The findings also demonstrate a clear trade-off between accuracy and caution, establishing that the use of uncertainty estimation and selective rejection improves the model's reliability in safety-critical diagnostic use cases.

Motivated by many application problems, we consider Markov decision processes (MDPs) with a general loss function and unknown parameters. To mitigate the epistemic uncertainty associated with unknown parameters, we take a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters from data and impose a coherent risk functional (with respect to the Bayesian posterior distribution) on the loss. Since this formulation usually does not satisfy the interchangeability principle, it does not admit Bellman equations and cannot be solved by approaches based on dynamic programming. Therefore, We propose a policy gradient optimization method, leveraging the dual representation of coherent risk measures and extending the envelope theorem to continuous cases. We then show the stationary analysis of the algorithm with a convergence rate of $\mathcal{O}(T^{-1/2}+r^{-1/2})$, where $T$ is the number of policy gradient iterations and $r$ is the sample size of the gradient estimator. We further extend our algorithm to an episodic setting, and establish the global convergence of the extended algorithm and provide bounds on the number of iterations needed to achieve an error bound $\mathcal{O}(ε)$ in each episode.

Genomic sequence analysis plays a crucial role in various scientific and medical domains. Traditional machine-learning approaches often struggle to capture the complex relationships and hierarchical structures of sequence data when working in high-dimensional Euclidean spaces. This limitation hinders accurate sequence classification and similarity measurement. To address these challenges, this research proposes a method to transform the feature representation of biological sequences into the hyperboloid space. By applying a transformation, the sequences are mapped onto the hyperboloid, preserving their inherent structural information. Once the sequences are represented in the hyperboloid space, a kernel matrix is computed based on the hyperboloid features. The kernel matrix captures the pairwise similarities between sequences, enabling more effective analysis of biological sequence relationships. This approach leverages the inner product of the hyperboloid feature vectors to measure the similarity between pairs of sequences. The experimental evaluation of the proposed approach demonstrates its efficacy in capturing important sequence correlations and improving classification accuracy.

Semantic Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) is a critical area of research within robotics and computer vision, focusing on the simultaneous localization of robotic systems and associating semantic information to construct the most accurate and complete comprehensive model of the surrounding environment. Since the first foundational work in Semantic SLAM appeared more than two decades ago, this field has received increasing attention across various scientific communities. Despite its significance, the field lacks comprehensive surveys encompassing recent advances and persistent challenges. In response, this study provides a thorough examination of the state-of-the-art of Semantic SLAM techniques, with the aim of illuminating current trends and key obstacles. Beginning with an in-depth exploration of the evolution of visual SLAM, this study outlines its strengths and unique characteristics, while also critically assessing previous survey literature. Subsequently, a unified problem formulation and evaluation of the modular solution framework is proposed, which divides the problem into discrete stages, including visual localization, semantic feature extraction, mapping, data association, and loop closure optimization. Moreover, this study investigates alternative methodologies such as deep learning and the utilization of large language models, alongside a review of relevant research about contemporary SLAM datasets. Concluding with a discussion on potential future research directions, this study serves as a comprehensive resource for researchers seeking to navigate the complex landscape of Semantic SLAM.

Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) enable expressive hierarchical Bayesian modeling but pose substantial challenges for posterior inference, especially over inducing variables. Denoising diffusion variational inference (DDVI) addresses this by modeling the posterior as a time-reversed diffusion from a simple Gaussian prior. However, DDVI's fixed unconditional starting distribution remains far from the complex true posterior, resulting in inefficient inference trajectories and slow convergence. In this work, we propose Diffusion Bridge Variational Inference (DBVI), a principled extension of DDVI that initiates the reverse diffusion from a learnable, data-dependent initial distribution. This initialization is parameterized via an amortized neural network and progressively adapted using gradients from the ELBO objective, reducing the posterior gap and improving sample efficiency. To enable scalable amortization, we design the network to operate on the inducing inputs, which serve as structured, low-dimensional summaries of the dataset and naturally align with the inducing variables' shape. DBVI retains the mathematical elegance of DDVI, including Girsanov-based ELBOs and reverse-time SDEs,while reinterpreting the prior via a Doob-bridged diffusion process. We derive a tractable training objective under this formulation and implement DBVI for scalable inference in large-scale DGPs. Across regression, classification, and image reconstruction tasks, DBVI consistently outperforms DDVI and other variational baselines in predictive accuracy, convergence speed, and posterior quality.

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