For one thing, we can capture functional dependencies .

We introduce and study the problem of detecting whether an agent is updating their prior beliefs given new evidence in an optimal way that is Bayesian, or whether they are biased towards their own prior. In our model, biased agents form posterior beliefs that are a convex combination of their prior and the Bayesian posterior, where the more biased an agent is, the closer their posterior is to the prior. Since we often cannot observe the agent's beliefs directly, we take an approach inspired by information design . Specifically, we measure an agent's bias by designing a signaling scheme and observing the actions the agent takes in response to different signals, assuming that the agent maximizes their own expected utility. Our goal is to detect bias with a minimum number of signals. Our main results include a characterization of scenarios where a single signal suffices and a computationally efficient algorithm to compute optimal signaling schemes.

Current research predominantly focuses on eliciting the internal capability of uncertainty estimation of LLMs.

We study the problem of online sequential decision-making given auxiliary demonstrations from experts who made their decisions based on unobserved contextual information. These demonstrations can be viewed as solving related but slightly different problems than what the learner faces. This setting arises in many application domains, such as self-driving cars, healthcare, and finance, where expert demonstrations are made using contextual information, which is not recorded in the data available to the learning agent. We model the problem as zero-shot meta-reinforcement learning with an unknown distribution over the unobserved contextual variables and a Bayesian regret minimization objective, where the unobserved variables are encoded as parameters with an unknown prior. We propose the Experts-as-Priors algorithm (ExPerior), an empirical Bayes approach that utilizes expert data to establish an informative prior distribution over the learner's decision-making problem. This prior distribution enables the application of any Bayesian approach for online decision-making, such as posterior sampling. We demonstrate that our strategy surpasses existing behaviour cloning, online, and online-offline baselines for multi-armed bandits, Markov decision processes (MDPs), and partially observable MDPs, showcasing the broad reach and utility of ExPerior in using expert demonstrations across different decision-making setups.

Disease progression models infer group-level temporal trajectories of change in patients' features as a chronic degenerative condition plays out.

Opponent modeling is a longstanding research topic aimed at enhancing decision-making by modeling information about opponents in multi-agent environments. However, existing approaches often face challenges such as having difficulty generalizing to unknown opponent policies and conducting unstable performance.

We introduce Neural Conditional Probability (NCP), an operator-theoretic approach to learning conditional distributions with a focus on statistical inference tasks.