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 Ensemble Learning


RefiDiff: Progressive Refinement Diffusion for Efficient Missing Data Imputation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Missing values in high-dimensional, mixed-type datasets pose significant challenges for data imputation, particularly under Missing Not At Random (MNAR) mechanisms. Existing methods struggle to integrate local and global data characteristics, limiting performance in MNAR and high-dimensional settings. We propose an innovative framework, RefiDiff, combining local machine learning predictions with a novel Mamba-based denoising network efficiently capturing long-range dependencies among features and samples with low computational complexity. RefiDiff bridges the predictive and generative paradigms of imputation, leveraging pre-refinement for initial warm-up imputations and post-refinement to polish results, enhancing stability and accuracy. By encoding mixed-type data into unified tokens, RefiDiff enables robust imputation without architectural or hyperparameter tuning. RefiDiff outperforms state-of-the-art (SOT A) methods across missing-value settings, demonstrating strong performance in MNAR settings and superior out-of-sample generalization. Extensive evaluations on nine real-world datasets demonstrate its robustness, scalability, and effectiveness in handling complex missingness patterns.


Revisiting Network Traffic Analysis: Compatible network flows for ML models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

To ensure that Machine Learning (ML) models can perform a robust detection and classification of cyberattacks, it is essential to train them with high-quality datasets with relevant features. However, it can be difficult to accurately represent the complex traffic patterns of an attack, especially in Internet-of-Things (IoT) networks. This paper studies the impact that seemingly similar features created by different network traffic flow exporters can have on the generalization and robustness of ML models. In addition to the original CSV files of the Bot-IoT, IoT-23, and CICIoT23 datasets, the raw network packets of their PCAP files were analysed with the HERA tool, generating new labelled flows and extracting consistent features for new CSV versions. To assess the usefulness of these new flows for intrusion detection, they were compared with the original versions and were used to fine-tune multiple models. Overall, the results indicate that directly analysing and preprocessing PCAP files, instead of just using the commonly available CSV files, enables the computation of more relevant features to train bagging and gradient boosting decision tree ensembles. It is important to continue improving feature extraction and feature selection processes to make different datasets more compatible and enable a trustworthy evaluation and comparison of the ML models used in cybersecurity solutions.


Feature Importance Guided Random Forest Learning with Simulated Annealing Based Hyperparameter Tuning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--This paper introduces a novel framework for enhancing Random Forest classifiers by integrating probabilistic feature sampling and hyperparameter tuning via Simulated Annealing. The proposed framework exhibits substantial advancements in predictive accuracy and generalization, adeptly tackling the multifaceted challenges of robust classification across diverse domains, including credit risk evaluation, anomaly detection in IoT ecosystems, early-stage medical diagnostics, and high-dimensional biological data analysis. T o overcome the limitations of conventional Random Forests, we present an approach that places stronger emphasis on capturing the most relevant signals from data while enabling adaptive hyperparameter configuration. The model is guided towards features that contribute more meaningfully to classification and optimizing this with dynamic parameter tuning. The results demonstrate consistent accuracy improvements and meaningful insights into feature relevance, showcasing the efficacy of combining importance aware sampling and metaheuristic optimization. RFs are widely used ensemble learning methods known for their robustness, interpretability, scalability and performance across diverse machine learning tasks.


Improving Asset Allocation in a Fast Moving Consumer Goods B2B Company: An Interpretable Machine Learning Framework for Commercial Cooler Assignment Based on Multi-Tier Growth Targets

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry, deciding where to place physical assets, such as commercial beverage coolers, can directly impact revenue growth and execution efficiency. Although churn prediction and demand forecasting have been widely studied in B2B contexts, the use of machine learning to guide asset allocation remains relatively unexplored. This paper presents a framework focused on predicting which beverage clients are most likely to deliver strong returns in volume after receiving a cooler. Using a private dataset from a well-known Central American brewing and beverage company of 3,119 B2B traditional trade channel clients that received a cooler from 2022-01 to 2024-07, and tracking 12 months of sales transactions before and after cooler installation, three growth thresholds were defined: 10%, 30% and 50% growth in sales volume year over year. The analysis compares results of machine learning models such as XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost combined with SHAP for interpretable feature analysis in order to have insights into improving business operations related to cooler allocation; the results show that the best model has AUC scores of 0.857, 0.877, and 0.898 across the thresholds on the validation set. Simulations suggest that this approach can improve ROI because it better selects potential clients to grow at the expected level and increases cost savings by not assigning clients that will not grow, compared to traditional volume-based approaches with substantial business management recommendations


Exploratory Analysis of Cyberattack Patterns on E-Commerce Platforms Using Statistical Methods

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Cyberattacks on e-commerce platforms have grown in sophistication, threatening consumer trust and operational continuity. This research presents a hybrid analytical framework that integrates statistical modelling and machine learning for detecting and forecasting cyberattack patterns in the e-commerce domain. Using the Verizon Community Data Breach (VCDB) dataset, the study applies Auto ARIMA for temporal forecasting and significance testing, including a Mann-Whitney U test (U = 2579981.5, p = 0.0121), which confirmed that holiday shopping events experienced significantly more severe cyberattacks than non-holiday periods. ANOVA was also used to examine seasonal variation in threat severity, while ensemble machine learning models (XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost) were employed for predictive classification. Results reveal recurrent attack spikes during high-risk periods such as Black Friday and holiday seasons, with breaches involving Personally Identifiable Information (PII) exhibiting elevated threat indicators. Among the models, CatBoost achieved the highest performance (accuracy = 85.29%, F1 score = 0.2254, ROC AUC = 0.8247). The framework uniquely combines seasonal forecasting with interpretable ensemble learning, enabling temporal risk anticipation and breach-type classification. Ethical considerations, including responsible use of sensitive data and bias assessment, were incorporated. Despite class imbalance and reliance on historical data, the study provides insights for proactive cybersecurity resource allocation and outlines directions for future real-time threat detection research.


Rewiring Human Brain Networks via Lightweight Dynamic Connectivity Framework: An EEG-Based Stress Validation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In recent years, Electroencephalographic analysis has gained prominence in stress research when combined with AI and Machine Learning models for validation. In this study, a lightweight dynamic brain connectivity framework based on Time Varying Directed Transfer Function is proposed, where TV DTF features were validated through ML based stress classification. TV DTF estimates the directional information flow between brain regions across distinct EEG frequency bands, thereby capturing temporal and causal influences that are often overlooked by static functional connectivity measures. EEG recordings from the 32 channel SAM 40 dataset were employed, focusing on mental arithmetic task trials. The dynamic EEG-based TV-DTF features were validated through ML classifiers such as Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Adaptive Boosting, and Extreme Gradient Boosting. Experimental results show that alpha-TV-DTF provided the strongest discriminative power, with SVM achieving 89.73% accuracy in 3-class classification and with XGBoost achieving 93.69% accuracy in 2 class classification. Relative to absolute power and phase locking based functional connectivity features, alpha TV DTF and beta TV DTF achieved higher performance across the ML models, highlighting the advantages of dynamic over static measures. Feature importance analysis further highlighted dominant long-range frontal parietal and frontal occipital informational influences, emphasizing the regulatory role of frontal regions under stress. These findings validate the lightweight TV-DTF as a robust framework, revealing spatiotemporal brain dynamics and directional influences across different stress levels.


Multi-Method Analysis of Mathematics Placement Assessments: Classical, Machine Learning, and Clustering Approaches

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study evaluates a 40-item mathematics placement examination administered to 198 students using a multi-method framework combining Classical Test Theory, machine learning, and unsupervised clustering. Classical Test Theory analysis reveals that 55\% of items achieve excellent discrimination ($D \geq 0.40$) while 30\% demonstrate poor discrimination ($D < 0.20$) requiring replacement. Question 6 (Graph Interpretation) emerges as the examination's most powerful discriminator, achieving perfect discrimination ($D = 1.000$), highest ANOVA F-statistic ($F = 4609.1$), and maximum Random Forest feature importance (0.206), accounting for 20.6\% of predictive power. Machine learning algorithms demonstrate exceptional performance, with Random Forest and Gradient Boosting achieving 97.5\% and 96.0\% cross-validation accuracy. K-means clustering identifies a natural binary competency structure with a boundary at 42.5\%, diverging from the institutional threshold of 55\% and suggesting potential overclassification into remedial categories. The two-cluster solution exhibits exceptional stability (bootstrap ARI = 0.855) with perfect lower-cluster purity. Convergent evidence across methods supports specific refinements: replace poorly discriminating items, implement a two-stage assessment, and integrate Random Forest predictions with transparency mechanisms. These findings demonstrate that multi-method integration provides a robust empirical foundation for evidence-based mathematics placement optimization.


From Propagation to Prediction: Point-level Uncertainty Evaluation of MLS Point Clouds under Limited Ground Truth

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Evaluating uncertainty is critical for reliable use of Mobile Laser Scanning (MLS) point clouds in many high-precision applications such as Scan-to-BIM, deformation analysis, and 3D modeling. However, obtaining the ground truth (GT) for evaluation is often costly and infeasible in many real-world applications. To reduce this long-standing reliance on GT in uncertainty evaluation research, this study presents a learning-based framework for MLS point clouds that integrates optimal neighborhood estimation with geometric feature extraction. Experiments on a real-world dataset show that the proposed framework is feasible and the XGBoost model delivers fully comparable accuracy to Random Forest while achieving substantially higher efficiency (about 3 times faster), providing initial evidence that geometric features can be used to predict point-level uncertainty quantified by the C2C distance. In summary, this study shows that MLS point clouds' uncertainty is learnable, offering a novel learning-based viewpoint towards uncertainty evaluation research.


From data to design: Random forest regression model for predicting mechanical properties of alloy steel

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study investigates the application of Random Forest Regression for predicting mechanical properties of alloy steel-Elongation, Tensile Strength, and Yield Strength-from material composition features including Iron (Fe), Chromium (Cr), Nickel (Ni), Manganese (Mn), Silicon (Si), Copper (Cu), Carbon (C), and deformation percentage during cold rolling. Utilizing a dataset comprising these features, we trained and evaluated the Random Forest model, achieving high predictive performance as evidenced by R2 scores and Mean Squared Errors (MSE). The results demonstrate the model's efficacy in providing accurate predictions, which is validated through various performance metrics including residual plots and learning curves. The findings underscore the potential of ensemble learning techniques in enhancing material property predictions, with implications for industrial applications in material science.


Assessing win strength in MLB win prediction models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In Major League Baseball, strategy and planning are major factors in determining the outcome of a game. Previous studies have aided this by building machine learning models for predicting the winning team of any given game. We extend this work by training a comprehensive set of machine learning models using a common dataset. In addition, we relate the win probabilities produced by these models to win strength as measured by score differential. In doing so we show that the most common machine learning models do indeed demonstrate a relationship between predicted win probability and the strength of the win. Finally, we analyze the results of using predicted win probabilities as a decision making mechanism on run-line betting. We demonstrate positive returns when utilizing appropriate betting strategies, and show that naive use of machine learning models for betting lead to significant loses.