Retail
Customer Analytics using Surveillance Video
Ijjina, Earnest Paul, Joshi, Aniruddha Srinivas, Kanahasabai, Goutham, P, Keerthi Priyanka
The analysis of sales information, is a vital step in designing an effective marketing strategy. This work proposes a novel approach to analyse the shopping behaviour of customers to identify their purchase patterns. An extended version of the Multi-Cluster Overlapping k-Means Extension (MCOKE) algorithm with weighted k-Means algorithm is utilized to map customers to the garments of interest. The age & gender traits of the customer; the time spent and the expressions exhibited while selecting garments for purchase, are utilized to associate a customer or a group of customers to a garments they are interested in. Such study on the customer base of a retail business, may help in inferring the products of interest of their consumers, and enable them in developing effective business strategies, thus ensuring customer satisfaction, loyalty, increased sales and profits.
Deep Learning based approach to detect Customer Age, Gender and Expression in Surveillance Video
Ijjina, Earnest Paul, Kanahasabai, Goutham, Joshi, Aniruddha Srinivas
In the current information era, customer analytics play a key role in the success of any business. Since customer demographics primarily dictate their preferences, identification and utilization of age & gender information of customers in sales forecasting, may maximize retail sales. In this work, we propose a computer vision based approach to age and gender prediction in surveillance video. The proposed approach leverage the effectiveness of Wide Residual Networks and Xception deep learning models to predict age and gender demographics of the consumers. The proposed approach is designed to work with raw video captured in a typical CCTV video surveillance system. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is evaluated on real-life garment store surveillance video, which is captured by low resolution camera, under non-uniform illumination, with occlusions due to crowding, and environmental noise. The system can also detect customer facial expressions during purchase in addition to demographics, that can be utilized to devise effective marketing strategies for their customer base, to maximize sales.
Forecasting intermittent time series with Gaussian Processes and Tweedie likelihood
Damato, Stefano, Azzimonti, Dario, Corani, Giorgio
We introduce the use of Gaussian Processes (GPs) for the probabilistic forecasting of intermittent time series. The model is trained in a Bayesian framework that accounts for the uncertainty about the latent function and marginalizes it out when making predictions. We couple the latent GP variable with two types of forecast distributions: the negative binomial (NegBinGP) and the Tweedie distribution (TweedieGP). While the negative binomial has already been used in forecasting intermittent time series, this is the first time in which a fully parameterized Tweedie density is used for intermittent time series. We properly evaluate the Tweedie density, which is both zero-inflated and heavy tailed, avoiding simplifying assumptions made in existing models. We test our models on thousands of intermittent count time series. Results show that our models provide consistently better probabilistic forecasts than the competitors. In particular, TweedieGP obtains the best estimates of the highest quantiles, thus showing that it is more flexible than NegBinGP.
Supermarket-6DoF: A Real-World Grasping Dataset and Grasp Pose Representation Analysis
Toskov, Jason, Cosgun, Akansel
We present Supermarket-6DoF, a real-world dataset of 1500 grasp attempts across 20 supermarket objects with publicly available 3D models. Unlike most existing grasping datasets that rely on analytical metrics or simulation for grasp labeling, our dataset provides ground-truth outcomes from physical robot executions. Among the few real-world grasping datasets, wile more modest in size, Supermarket-6DoF uniquely features full 6-DoF grasp poses annotated with both initial grasp success and post-grasp stability under external perturbation. We demonstrate the dataset's utility by analyzing three grasp pose representations for grasp success prediction from point clouds. Our results show that representing the gripper geometry explicitly as a point cloud achieves higher prediction accuracy compared to conventional quaternion-based grasp pose encoding.
Time Series Treatment Effects Analysis with Always-Missing Controls
Shu, Juan, Han, Qiyu, Chen, George, Cao, Xihao, Luo, Kangming, Pallotta, Dan, Agrawal, Shivam, Lu, Yuping, Zhang, Xiaoyu, Mansoor, Jawad, Anand, Jyoti
Estimating treatment effects in time series data presents a significant challenge, especially when the control group is always unobservable. For example, in analyzing the effects of Christmas on retail sales, we lack direct observation of what would have occurred in late December without the Christmas's impact. To address this, we try to recover the control group in the event period while accounting for confounders and temporal dependencies. Experimental results on the M5 Walmart retail sales data demonstrate robust estimation of the potential outcome of the control group as well as accurate predicted holiday effect. Furthermore, we provided theoretical guarantees for the estimated treatment effect, proving its consistency and asymptotic normality. The proposed methodology is applicable not only to this always-missing control scenario but also in other conventional time series causal inference settings.
Joint Pricing and Resource Allocation: An Optimal Online-Learning Approach
Xu, Jianyu, Wang, Xuan, Wang, Yu-Xiang, Jiang, Jiashuo
The problem of dynamic pricing examines strategies of setting and adjusting prices in response to varying customer behaviors and market conditions. The mainstream of existing works on dynamic pricing, including Kleinberg and Leighton (2003); Broder and Rusmevichientong (2012); Cohen et al. (2020); Wang et al. (2021b), focuses on the estimation of demand curves while putting aside the decisions on the supply side. Another series of literature, including Besbes and Zeevi (2009); Chen et al. (2019, 2021a); Keskin et al. (2022), takes supply and inventories into account. However, these works simplify the supply cost as uniform and static, underestimating the difficulty of allocating products through sophisticated supply chains among multiple parties such as factories, warehouses, and retailers. On the other hand, the problem of resource allocation - to serve different demand classes with various types of resources - presents a complex challenge within the field of operations research. Analogous to online dynamic pricing, the recent proliferation of e-platforms has magnified the importance of developing online allocation algorithms that efficiently manage supply and demand on the fly while maximizing cumulative utilities.
Reinforcement Learning for Efficient Returns Management
Linden, Pascal, Paul, Nathalie, Wirtz, Tim, Wrobel, Stefan
In retail warehouses, returned products are typically placed in an intermediate storage until a decision regarding further shipment to stores is made. The longer products are held in storage, the higher the inefficiency and costs of the returns management process, since enough storage area has to be provided and maintained while the products are not placed for sale. To reduce the average product storage time, we consider an alternative solution where reallocation decisions for products can be made instantly upon their arrival in the warehouse allowing only a limited number of products to still be stored simultaneously. We transfer the problem to an online multiple knapsack problem and propose a novel reinforcement learning approach to pack the items (products) into the knapsacks (stores) such that the overall value (expected revenue) is maximized. Empirical evaluations on simulated data demonstrate that, compared to the usual offline decision procedure, our approach comes with a performance gap of only 3% while significantly reducing the average storage time of a product by 96%. 1 Introduction Managing returns is a central process in the retail supply chain as it has a high impact on the companies' costs and their sustainability [16].
QuanTaxo: A Quantum Approach to Self-Supervised Taxonomy Expansion
Mishra, Sahil, Patni, Avi, Chatterjee, Niladri, Chakraborty, Tanmoy
A taxonomy is a hierarchical graph containing knowledge to provide valuable insights for various web applications. Online retail organizations like Microsoft and Amazon utilize taxonomies to improve product recommendations and optimize advertisement by enhancing query interpretation. However, the manual construction of taxonomies requires significant human effort. As web content continues to expand at an unprecedented pace, existing taxonomies risk becoming outdated, struggling to incorporate new and emerging information effectively. As a consequence, there is a growing need for dynamic taxonomy expansion to keep them relevant and up-to-date. Existing taxonomy expansion methods often rely on classical word embeddings to represent entities. However, these embeddings fall short in capturing hierarchical polysemy, where an entity's meaning can vary based on its position in the hierarchy and its surrounding context. To address this challenge, we introduce QuanTaxo, an innovative quantum-inspired framework for taxonomy expansion. QuanTaxo encodes entity representations in quantum space, effectively modeling hierarchical polysemy by leveraging the principles of Hilbert space to capture interference effects between entities, yielding richer and more nuanced representations. Comprehensive experiments on four real-world benchmark datasets show that QuanTaxo significantly outperforms classical embedding models, achieving substantial improvements of 18.45% in accuracy, 20.5% in Mean Reciprocal Rank, and 17.87% in Wu & Palmer metrics across eight classical embedding-based baselines. We further highlight the superiority of QuanTaxo through extensive ablation and case studies.
Collaborating in a competitive world: Heterogeneous Multi-Agent Decision Making in Symbiotic Supply Chain Environments
Wang, Wan, Wang, Haiyan, Sobey, Adam J.
Supply networks require collaboration in a competitive environment. To achieve this, nodes in the network often form symbiotic relationships as they can be adversely effected by the closure of companies in the network, especially where products are niche. However, balancing support for other nodes in the network against profit is challenging. Agents are increasingly being explored to define optimal strategies in these complex networks. However, to date much of the literature focuses on homogeneous agents where a single policy controls all of the nodes. This isn't realistic for many supply chains as this level of information sharing would require an exceptionally close relationship. This paper therefore compares the behaviour of this type of agent to a heterogeneous structure, where the agents each have separate polices, to solve the product ordering and pricing problem. An approach to reward sharing is developed that doesn't require sharing profit. The homogenous and heterogeneous agents exhibit different behaviours, with the homogenous retailer retaining high inventories and witnessing high levels of backlog while the heterogeneous agents show a typical order strategy. This leads to the heterogeneous agents mitigating the bullwhip effect whereas the homogenous agents do not. In the high demand environment, the agent architecture dominates performance with the Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) agents outperforming the Proximal Policy Optimisation (PPO) agents. Here, the factory controls the supply chain. In the low demand environment the homogenous agents outperform the heterogeneous agents. Control of the supply chain shifts significantly, with the retailer outperforming the factory by a significant margin.