Dynamic microsimulation has long been recognized as a powerful tool for policy analysis, but in fact most major health policy simulations lack path dependency, a critical feature for evaluating policies that depend on accumulated outcomes such as retirement savings, wealth, or debt. We propose the Longitudinal Health, Income and Employment Model (LHIEM), a path-dependent discrete-time microsimulation that predicts annual health care expenditures, family income, and health status for the U.S. population over a multi-year period. LHIEM advances the population from year to year as a Markov chain with modules capturing the particular dynamics of each predictive attribute. LHIEM was designed to assess a health care financing proposal that would allow individuals to borrow from the U.S. government to cover health care costs, requiring careful tracking of medical expenditures and medical debt over time. However, LHIEM is flexible enough to be used for a range of modeling needs related to predicting health care spending and income over time. In this paper, we present the details of the model and all dynamic modules, and include a case study to demonstrate how LHIEM can be used to evaluate proposed policy changes.

In this work, we consider ranking problems among a finite set of candidates: for instance, selecting the top-$k$ items among a larger list of candidates or obtaining the full ranking of all items in the set. These problems are often unstable, in the sense that estimating a ranking from noisy data can exhibit high sensitivity to small perturbations. Concretely, if we use data to provide a score for each item (say, by aggregating preference data over a sample of users), then for two items with similar scores, small fluctuations in the data can alter the relative ranking of those items. Many existing theoretical results for ranking problems assume a separation condition to avoid this challenge, but real-world data often contains items whose scores are approximately tied, limiting the applicability of existing theory. To address this gap, we develop a new algorithmic stability framework for ranking problems, and propose two novel ranking operators for achieving stable ranking: the \emph{inflated top-$k$} for the top-$k$ selection problem and the \emph{inflated full ranking} for ranking the full list. To enable stability, each method allows for expressing some uncertainty in the output. For both of these two problems, our proposed methods provide guaranteed stability, with no assumptions on data distributions and no dependence on the total number of candidates to be ranked. Experiments on real-world data confirm that the proposed methods offer stability without compromising the informativeness of the output.

Understanding the complex interactions within dynamic multilayer networks is critical for advancements in various scientific domains. Existing models often fail to capture such networks' temporal and cross-layer dynamics. This paper introduces a novel Tensor State Space Model for Dynamic Multilayer Networks (TSSDMN), utilizing a latent space model framework. TSSDMN employs a symmetric Tucker decomposition to represent latent node features, their interaction patterns, and layer transitions. Then by fixing the latent features and allowing the interaction patterns to evolve over time, TSSDMN uniquely captures both the temporal dynamics within layers and across different layers. The model identifiability conditions are discussed. By treating latent features as variables whose posterior distributions are approximated using a mean-field variational inference approach, a variational Expectation Maximization algorithm is developed for efficient model inference. Numerical simulations and case studies demonstrate the efficacy of TSSDMN for understanding dynamic multilayer networks.

Learning on small data is a challenge frequently encountered in many real-world applications. In this work we study how effective quantum ensemble models are when trained on small data problems in healthcare and life sciences. We constructed multiple types of quantum ensembles for binary classification using up to 26 qubits in simulation and 56 qubits on quantum hardware. Our ensemble designs use minimal trainable parameters but require long-range connections between qubits. We tested these quantum ensembles on synthetic datasets and gene expression data from renal cell carcinoma patients with the task of predicting patient response to immunotherapy. From the performance observed in simulation and initial hardware experiments, we demonstrate how quantum embedding structure affects performance and discuss how to extract informative features and build models that can learn and generalize effectively. We present these exploratory results in order to assist other researchers in the design of effective learning on small data using ensembles. Incorporating quantum computing in these data constrained problems offers hope for a wide range of studies in healthcare and life sciences where biological samples are relatively scarce given the feature space to be explored.

As UAV popularity soars, so does the mission planning associated with it. The classical approaches suffer from the triple problems of decoupled of task assignment and path planning, poor real-time performance and limited adaptability. Aiming at these challenges, this paper proposes a dynamic real-time multi-UAV collaborative mission planning algorithm based on Dubins paths under a distributed formation structure. Dubins path with multiple advantages bridges the gap between task assignment and path planning, leading to a coupled solution for mission planning. Then, a series of acceleration techniques, task clustering preprocessing, highly efficient distance cost functions, low-complexity and less iterative task allocation strategies, are employed to guarantee the real-time performance of the algorithms. To cope with different emergencies and their simultaneous extremes, real-time planning of emerging tasks and mission replanning due to the reduction of available UAVs are appropriately handled. Finally, the developed algorithm is comprehensively exemplified and studied through simulations, highlighting that the proposed method only sacrifices 9.57% of the path length, while achieving a speed improvement of 4-5 orders of magnitude over the simulated annealing method, with a single mission planning of about 0.0003s.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often exhibit knowledge disparities across languages. Encouraging LLMs to \textit{abstain} when faced with knowledge gaps is a promising strategy to reduce hallucinations in multilingual settings. Current abstention strategies for multilingual scenarios primarily rely on generating feedback in various languages using LLMs and performing self-reflection. However, these methods can be adversely impacted by inaccuracies and biases in the generated feedback. To address this, from a causal perspective, we introduce \textit{CausalAbstain}, a method that helps LLMs determine whether to utilize multiple generated feedback responses and how to identify the most useful ones. Extensive experiments demonstrate that \textit{CausalAbstain} effectively selects helpful feedback and enhances abstention decisions with interpretability in both native language (\textsc{Casual-native}) and multilingual (\textsc{Causal-multi}) settings, outperforming strong baselines on two benchmark datasets covering encyclopedic and commonsense knowledge QA tasks. Our code and data are open-sourced at https://github.com/peachch/CausalAbstain.

Publicly significant images from events hold valuable contextual information, crucial for journalism and education. However, existing methods often struggle to extract this relevance accurately. To address this, we introduce GETReason (Geospatial Event Temporal Reasoning), a framework that moves beyond surface-level image descriptions to infer deeper contextual meaning. We propose that extracting global event, temporal, and geospatial information enhances understanding of an image's significance. Additionally, we introduce GREAT (Geospatial Reasoning and Event Accuracy with Temporal Alignment), a new metric for evaluating reasoning-based image understanding. Our layered multi-agent approach, assessed using a reasoning-weighted metric, demonstrates that meaningful insights can be inferred, effectively linking images to their broader event context.

Dates often contribute towards highly impactful medical decisions, but it is rarely clear how to extract this data. AI has only just begun to be used transcribe such documents, and common methods are either to trust that the output produced by a complex AI model, or to parse the text using regular expressions. Recent work has established that regular expressions are an explainable form of logic, but it is difficult to decompose these into the component parts that are required to construct precise UNIX timestamps. First, we test publicly-available regular expressions, and we found that these were unable to capture a significant number of our dates. Next, we manually created easily-decomposable regular expressions, and we found that these were able to detect the majority of real dates, but also a lot of sequences of text that look like dates. Finally, we used regular expression synthesis to automatically identify regular expressions from the reverse-engineered UNIX timestamps that we created. We find that regular expressions created by regular expression synthesis detect far fewer sequences of text that look like dates than those that were manually created, at the cost of a slight increase to the number of missed dates. Overall, our results show that regular expressions can be created through regular expression synthesis to identify complex dates and date ranges in text transcriptions. To our knowledge, our proposed way of learning deterministic logic by reverse-engineering several many-one mappings and feeding these into a regular expression synthesiser is a new approach.

Large language models (LLMs) are foundational explorations to artificial general intelligence, yet their alignment with human values via instruction tuning and preference learning achieves only superficial compliance. Here, we demonstrate that harmful knowledge embedded during pretraining persists as indelible "dark patterns" in LLMs' parametric memory, evading alignment safeguards and resurfacing under adversarial inducement at distributional shifts. In this study, we first theoretically analyze the intrinsic ethical vulnerability of aligned LLMs by proving that current alignment methods yield only local "safety regions" in the knowledge manifold. In contrast, pretrained knowledge remains globally connected to harmful concepts via high-likelihood adversarial trajectories. Building on this theoretical insight, we empirically validate our findings by employing semantic coherence inducement under distributional shifts--a method that systematically bypasses alignment constraints through optimized adversarial prompts. This combined theoretical and empirical approach achieves a 100% attack success rate across 19 out of 23 state-of-the-art aligned LLMs, including DeepSeek-R1 and LLaMA-3, revealing their universal vulnerabilities.

--Deep reinforcement learning agents are often fragile while humans remain adaptive and flexible to varying scenarios. T o bridge this gap, we present EDEN, a biologically inspired navigation framework that integrates learned entorhinal-like grid cell representations and reinforcement learning to enable autonomous navigation. Inspired by the mammalian entorhinal-hippocampal system, EDEN allows agents to perform path integration and vector-based navigation using visual and motion sensor data. At the core of EDEN is a grid cell encoder that transforms egocentric motion into periodic spatial codes, producing low-dimensional, interpretable embeddings of position. T o generate these activations from raw sensory input, we combine fiducial marker detections in the lightweight MiniWorld simulator and DINO-based visual features in the high-fidelity Gazebo simulator . These spatial representations serve as input to a policy trained with Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), enabling dynamic, goal-directed navigation. We evaluate EDEN in both MiniWorld, for rapid prototyping, and Gazebo, which offers realistic physics and perception noise. Compared to baseline agents using raw state inputs (e.g., position, velocity) or standard convolutional image encoders, EDEN achieves a 99% success rate, within the simple scenarios, and >94% within complex floorplans with occluded paths with more efficient and reliable stepwise navigation. In addition, as a replacement of ground truth activations, we present a trainable Grid Cell encoder enabling the development of periodic grid-like patterns from vision and motion sensor data, emulating the development of such patterns within biological mammals. This work represents a step toward biologically grounded spatial intelligence in robotics, bridging neural navigation principles with reinforcement learning for scalable deployment. A publicly available GitHub repository for EDEN is made available at github.com/M-iki/EDEN .